[... continued]

The most recent IPCC report said: “Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence.” The IPCC found that insufficient observational evidence, a lack of understanding regarding the physical connection between manmade climate change and tropical storms, and considerable disagreement between studies justified downplaying any detectable changes in tropical cyclones due to global warming.

What is clearer and more worrisome than the present picture, though, is what is expected to happen in coming decades, assuming that the climate continues to warm as expected. In general, the latest IPCC report found that manmade global warming is likely to make tropical cyclones produce more rainfall and have higher wind speeds than they typically do now, but the frequency of these storms may decline in some ocean basins.

Monster storms like Haiyan may, in fact, become more common in the future, thanks to a readier supply of warm ocean waters and possible changes to atmospheric wind shear, which can tear storms apart, in some ocean basins that could aid such storms (such changes could also inhibit storms in other ocean basins). Some studies have found that manmade emissions of soot in South Asia, in addition to global warming, have already lessened wind shear over the Indian Ocean, leading to an increase in tropical cyclone intensities there in recent years.

“The available modelling studies that are capable of producing very strong cyclones typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones and it is more likely than not that this increase will be larger than 10 percent in some basins,” the IPCC report said. Given that the strongest storms tend to be responsible for a disproportionate share of storm damage and loss of life, the IPCC report said, “It should be emphasized that this metric is generally more important to physical and societal impacts than overall frequency or mean intensity.”

Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected percent change in the average over period 2081–2100 relative to 2000–2019, under a high emissions scenario. The metrics presented here include the total annual frequency of tropical storms, the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, the mean lifetime maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and the precipitation rate within 200 km of the storm center at its most intense point. The solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change, and the coloured bar provides the likely confidence interval for this value.
Credit: IPCC Working Group II.

Vecchi, who has published a slew of scientific papers on hurricanes and global warming, told Climate Central that it may not be until the end of this century that a global warming signal emerges in tropical cyclone records.

“ . . . Globally, and by the end of the 21st century, we expect global warming to make tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones) more intense, and the frequency of the most intense storms (like Haiyan) is expected to increase,” Vecchi said in an email. “However, we have much less confidence in what global warming should do in each individual basin.”

While the scientific consensus clearly skews toward stronger, wetter, but less frequent tropical cyclones in the coming decades, there are some studies that depart from that view. In fact, a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in July found that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, with a huge jump in storm frequency and intensity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean Basin. The study, by MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel, used the latest generation of computer models to arrive at its results, but it has not yet been backed by subsequent research from other groups.

“It is premature to judge how robust this finding will be” once its techniques are replicated across different computer models and compared to other similar methods, Tom Knutson, a researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., said.

lol the dills are out with the MAY word again. oh look a storm that doesnt happen often. Yeh that MAY be whats to come if only the earth could manipulate climate data and get the dog to eat its homework on hockey sticks, it may start playing ball.

LOL u tools

I re-post this here, as it is relevant.

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 12:23pm:

Terrible disaster. Over 10,000 people killed. My thoughts go to those affected.

progressiveslol wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 5:29pm:


just another data point on the graph mister smelly.

you do know how the scientific analysis is done you flabby de-fragmented foul stenching weasel dropping mould maggot

namnugenot wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 6:16pm:

Such an event, just did happen!

It is not anecdotal, it is not finger pointing... 0%, it is Fact ...100% and now is the appropriate time to review our risk mitigation, because if we leave it until the outcomes are absolutely obvious, then it will be far too late and we maywill have given any chance of avoiding the worst outcomes!

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 7:31pm:


It's all over, the planet is cooked.

No hope, too late to do anything now except wait for the inevitable grilling.

Pity, human civilisation has so much potential - a potential that turned into self destructiveness

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 9:28pm:


Its all over Greggy - the human race is run

Finished - all washed up, down the drain pipe

flushed down the toilet like the turds of Hades

pity

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 7:31pm:


Come to think of it all the extra weight from all those extra people is probably causing worse earthquakes and the resulting tsunamis.

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 9:26pm:


Good so we can finally scrap the carbon tax

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 9:26pm:


So, you're happy to give up & condemn the future, without even trying?

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 11:39pm:


No just the carbon tax and the mining tax.

Put the GST up if you want to save the world.

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 8:58am:


So these are things the Lab government obviously were blind to as well...well no, that's not right either, the NSW party, and others presumably, were busy parceling such benefits out to their mates...Obeid, McDonald,etc. And you loved them for it.

Swagman wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 7:20am:
Do you have rational reasoning for that?

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 8:58am:


That's the point they already pay their fair share of tax.

They also employ lots pf people that pay income tax.

They also indirectly provide business and infrstructure to communities that in turn pay taxes and employ more people.

Go and have a latte', eat a banana and donate 90% of your dole cheque  to Greenpeace Chimp, you'll feel better.

Swagman wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 12:11pm:


You forgot Royalties.

Bet you don' pay Royalties do you Chump, dirty f%cking Champaign socialist scum

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 12:28pm:


What actions exactly...you seem to be good at making lists...

# wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 11:30am:


Or more scientifically put….

They are all extincted….

Rider wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 12:22pm:


Yes the massive Royalties that the mining industry pays - a pathetic 0.73% of their earnings - and they get that back and more from the tax payer.

Ask the WA government how its books are looking during several decades of a mining boom. They are in massive debt and all the foreign owned mining corporations are laughing their heads off in board rooms overseas with their CEOs enjoying massive bonuses etc

And you support this form of corproatised fascism on a global scale. Why? Well because Mr Rider, ladies an gentlemen, emits the foulest of odours into the ether, like a de-fragmented diseased weasel sloth

namnugenot wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 12:18pm:



If you disagree with David B ( # ), he'll call you a troll.

Just wait and see.

Anyone who doesn't follow his religion is automatically labelled a troll.

It's his way of dealing with conflict (seeing as he doesn't have a convincing argument).

He's a troubled soul, that boy.

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 7:22pm:
Young wanker*, you're losing your touch.

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:56pm:

namnugenot wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 1:09pm:


There are many, although YOU COULD START HERE -
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/spmsspm-e.html

However, I would suggest IF you were seriously interested, YOU COULD LOOK UP THE ISSUES YOURSELF?

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 7:22pm:


I not bothered by someone with such obvious and limited understanding. 

Fortescue under fire for not paying tax

Updated Wed 9 Nov 2011, 8:39pm AEDT


Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest speaks to the media Photo: FMG chairman Andrew Forrest is at odds with the Government over the mining tax. (Andrew O'Connor: ABC News)

Related Story: FMG pushes for mining tax changes

Related Story: Tax does not target small miners: Treasury

Related Story: Mining tax bills introduced to Parliament


Map:  Australia
The Federal Government has attacked Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) chairman Andrew Forrest over the revelation his business has never paid company tax.

FMG head of government relations Julian Tapp told a parliamentary committee into the mining tax today that the company had not yet paid any company tax but was due to pay up to $800 million this financial year.

"We have not cut a corporate tax cheque to date, no," Mr Tapp said.

But Mr Tapp said the company had paid millions in state iron ore royalties.

"We're also paying circa $450m to $500m a year on current production levels in West Australian state royalties, so I do not agree that Fortescue does not contribute its fair share," Mr Tapp said.

Government Senate leader Chris Evans says the company has a market capitalisation of $20 billion.

.



Audio: Government attacks Fortescue over tax (PM)


"A large mining company owned by Australia's richest man won't pay tax ... that is not something the Australian people should accept."

FMG and the Government are at odds over the mining tax bills, which are being examined by the parliamentary committee.

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 4:02pm:


Actually Chimp, '83% foreign owned' is a monstrous exaggeration.

Out of 44 Australian mining companies that I just researched, only about 6 are foreign owned (maybe as many as 10 if you use having an overseas listing or offices as the definition).

gizmo_2655 wrote on Nov 13^th, 2013 at 11:48am:


List the 44 companies you researched and quote the percentage of the Australian mining sector that they control.

You do realise that BHP and RIO are 50% and 75% foreign owned respectively? Do you know how much of Australias mining goes through just these two corporate giants?

You quote garbage as usual because you cant handle the truth about your own country and your own existence within it

You should be ashamed at trying to lie and deceive in public just so that you can live with yourself as a pathetic scoundrel freak weasel

lee wrote on Nov 13^th, 2013 at 11:03am:


They do pay considerable sums up front also...before they did up a bean.

[... continued]

Philippine Climate Change Commissioner and lead climate negotiator Naderev “Yeb” Saño also delivered some potent remarks during the opening session of COP19, saying, “with an apparent cruel twist of fate, my country is being tested by this hellstorm called Super Typhoon Haiyan”:

Quote:


Saño deviated from his prepared remarks to pledge that he would refrain from eating at the convention until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

He called for global solidarity and enhanced ambition in confronting climate change, specifically calling on the COP to deliver meaningful progress on a pledge by rich countries to deliver $100 billion from 2020 to help developing countries cope with the impacts of climate change.

Saño went on to say that the typhoon made landfall in his family’s hometown, and that as he agonizes while waiting for the fate of friends and family the news that his brother survived the onslaught gives him renewed strength.

“Climate change will mean increased potential for more intense tropical storms and this will have profound implications on many communities, especially who struggle against the twin challenges of the development crisis and the climate change crisis,” Saño said.

The Typhoon’s Role In Climate Change

According to CNN, Super Typhoon Haiyan may have hit the Philippines with the strongest sustained cyclone winds on record at 195 mph. Scientists are still analyzing the data. Gusts reported at first landfall that rose to 235 mph would also be a record if confirmed.

Senior Presidential aide Rene Alemendras told the AP that preparation efforts anticipated the wind but not the water. Leyte and its capital city of Tacloban — home to 200,000 — was inundated by storm surges as high as 20 feet.

According to Climate Central, there is increasing evidence that climate change is making the impacts of storm surges worse by raising the underlying sea levels. However, studies still show a high amount of uncertainty about how global warming is affecting the frequency and intensity of West Pacific typhoons.

Professor Will Steffen, a researcher at Australian National University, told the Sydney Morning Herald that scientists understand how a hotter, moister climate is already affecting storms such as Haiyan.

“Once [cyclones] do form, they get most of their energy from the surface waters of the ocean,” Professor Steffen said. “We know sea-surface temperatures are warming pretty much around the planet, so that’s a pretty direct influence of climate change on the nature of the storm.”

Data compiled from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea temperatures were about 0.5 to 1 degree above normal in the waters to the east of the Philippines as Haiyan began forming.

Kerry A. Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist at M.I.T., told the New York Times that that as the planet warms the difference between sea and air temperatures increases and that this differences fuels the increased intensity of storms like Haiyan.

“As you warm the climate, you basically raise the speed limit on hurricanes,” he said.

namnugenot wrote on Nov 12^th, 2013 at 10:51pm:
The difference is that I know it.

To paraphrase a Confucian aphorism: Quote:

I've been studying the climate issue since the 1950s*. It eventually became clear that the subject is so complex that nobody who doesn't devote their life to it has any hope of developing a credible understanding.

I have other things to do with my life, so I just heed the best. The vast majority of the best are as certain as possible that humanity is destabilising the climate.

On the evidence of your behaviour, you lack both the necessary wisdom and the learning to realise the extent of your ignorance.

* You do know that Al Gore didn't invent global warming, don't you?

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 13^th, 2013 at 8:22pm:
Young troll, you really are off your game, aren't you?

With the probable exception of your favourite body part*, you've quite lost your grip.

* greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:56pm:

# wrote on Nov 13^th, 2013 at 8:17pm:

Considering the free market liars love nuclear power they should know global warming was their marketing schtick in, of all places perth, back in the 60s so its certainly not knew and certainly not to the pro nuclear power con artist.... unless they are playing pretend

Swagman wrote on Nov 13^th, 2013 at 9:16pm:


Fortescue under fire for not paying tax
Updated Wed 9 Nov 2011

The Federal Government has attacked Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) chairman Andrew Forrest over the revelation his business has never paid company tax.

FMG head of government relations Julian Tapp told a parliamentary committee into the mining tax today that the company had not yet paid any company tax but was due to pay up to $800 million this financial

Link -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-09/fortescue-mining-company-tax/3655270
=========================================
It would seem a little overdue, as 2012 may have been the first year that Fortescue have paid tax, in their 22 year history.

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 14^th, 2013 at 8:36am:


So it's overdue (so is that linked article).  But that's on par with Labor Govt's in this country. which haven't delivered a surplus in that period either....

Despite the lies of the Chimp,    Fortescue has now paid $1.4 Billion in the last 22 years ($63 Million per year on average and not including the money paid out to local suppliers and local employees) and the direct and indirect enterpsie generated from this investment.

You stupid lefties are totally incapable of thinking laterally.

You want it all but criticise and bitch about the people that risk capital and their hard earned because they are successful.

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 14^th, 2013 at 9:12am:


What's wrong Chimpy?  Can't handle the truth even when it's served up to you.

Commies and Nazis were / are peas in a pod comrade.  Both socialists..........same street different houses that's all..

From the tripe you post and the way you rant and rave I'd suspect that you'd fit nicely in both..

Swagman wrote on Nov 14^th, 2013 at 12:33pm:

lee wrote on Nov 14^th, 2013 at 6:31pm:


He looks happy all right.

I think he's had a meal of chimp....

lee wrote on Nov 14^th, 2013 at 6:31pm:


warthog's are actually quite brave and fierce fighters - they have been known to injure or even kill lions with their tusks

you are welcome to this particular filthy mud ridden warthog stench

His IQ is higher than Swagmans (about 34.6% higher)

Swagman wrote on Nov 14^th, 2013 at 8:57pm: