[... continued]

The most recent IPCC report said: “Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence.” The IPCC found that insufficient observational evidence, a lack of understanding regarding the physical connection between manmade climate change and tropical storms, and considerable disagreement between studies justified downplaying any detectable changes in tropical cyclones due to global warming.

What is clearer and more worrisome than the present picture, though, is what is expected to happen in coming decades, assuming that the climate continues to warm as expected. In general, the latest IPCC report found that manmade global warming is likely to make tropical cyclones produce more rainfall and have higher wind speeds than they typically do now, but the frequency of these storms may decline in some ocean basins.

Monster storms like Haiyan may, in fact, become more common in the future, thanks to a readier supply of warm ocean waters and possible changes to atmospheric wind shear, which can tear storms apart, in some ocean basins that could aid such storms (such changes could also inhibit storms in other ocean basins). Some studies have found that manmade emissions of soot in South Asia, in addition to global warming, have already lessened wind shear over the Indian Ocean, leading to an increase in tropical cyclone intensities there in recent years.

“The available modelling studies that are capable of producing very strong cyclones typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones and it is more likely than not that this increase will be larger than 10 percent in some basins,” the IPCC report said. Given that the strongest storms tend to be responsible for a disproportionate share of storm damage and loss of life, the IPCC report said, “It should be emphasized that this metric is generally more important to physical and societal impacts than overall frequency or mean intensity.”

Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected percent change in the average over period 2081–2100 relative to 2000–2019, under a high emissions scenario. The metrics presented here include the total annual frequency of tropical storms, the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, the mean lifetime maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and the precipitation rate within 200 km of the storm center at its most intense point. The solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change, and the coloured bar provides the likely confidence interval for this value.
Credit: IPCC Working Group II.

Vecchi, who has published a slew of scientific papers on hurricanes and global warming, told Climate Central that it may not be until the end of this century that a global warming signal emerges in tropical cyclone records.

“ . . . Globally, and by the end of the 21st century, we expect global warming to make tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones) more intense, and the frequency of the most intense storms (like Haiyan) is expected to increase,” Vecchi said in an email. “However, we have much less confidence in what global warming should do in each individual basin.”

While the scientific consensus clearly skews toward stronger, wetter, but less frequent tropical cyclones in the coming decades, there are some studies that depart from that view. In fact, a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in July found that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, with a huge jump in storm frequency and intensity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean Basin. The study, by MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel, used the latest generation of computer models to arrive at its results, but it has not yet been backed by subsequent research from other groups.

“It is premature to judge how robust this finding will be” once its techniques are replicated across different computer models and compared to other similar methods, Tom Knutson, a researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., said.

lol the dills are out with the MAY word again. oh look a storm that doesnt happen often. Yeh that MAY be whats to come if only the earth could manipulate climate data and get the dog to eat its homework on hockey sticks, it may start playing ball.

LOL u tools

I re-post this here, as it is relevant.

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 12:23pm:

Terrible disaster. Over 10,000 people killed. My thoughts go to those affected.

progressiveslol wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 5:29pm:


just another data point on the graph mister smelly.

you do know how the scientific analysis is done you flabby de-fragmented foul stenching weasel dropping mould maggot

namnugenot wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 6:16pm:

Such an event, just did happen!

It is not anecdotal, it is not finger pointing... 0%, it is Fact ...100% and now is the appropriate time to review our risk mitigation, because if we leave it until the outcomes are absolutely obvious, then it will be far too late and we maywill have given any chance of avoiding the worst outcomes!

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 11^th, 2013 at 7:31pm:


It's all over, the planet is cooked.

No hope, too late to do anything now except wait for the inevitable grilling.

Pity, human civilisation has so much potential - a potential that turned into self destructiveness