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IPCC 95% sure about AGW (Read 40582 times)
BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #435 - Oct 24th, 2013 at 9:02pm
 
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 12:42pm:
muso wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:40am:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 7:40pm:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:56pm:
remember the good old days when the AGW denialist church congregation was afraid to show data past the 1980s?



Oh look what happens when you pick an arbitrary time section and apply an arbitrary trend line Smiley Temperature and solar activity on a downward trend and the IPCC are off to the moon.
(Bias is as bias does)


Too short a period, Vuk.


IMO all time periods are arbitrary and only useful in proving a specific point. Either a claim of something over a historic period (long time frame) or a claim of say for example a 15 year stall in temperature which would require 15+ year time frame.

The point of that graph was that arbitrary trend lines chosen in arbitrary times frames are misleading.

vuk11 has discovered the uncertainty principle: lets all smoke crack and bore our friends to death for another weekend/year/ decade of their life!! Seriously, brother, this is why kids kill their managerial coin counting red wine infected parents!!
(yes, bored up em self parents smoke crack too  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes )
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Ajax
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #436 - Oct 26th, 2013 at 4:42pm
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:34am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 7:24am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:35pm:
WOW big predictions from the man who cant find any models to support his lunatic religion, and who dismisses every model as garbage

Now Mr Nostradamus is predicting a quiet period for the sun

Don't tell me that you have been attributing the recent warming trend to a noisey period of the suns life?

perhaps you should examine the solar irradiance variation data for the Sun - its well documented

Mr Ajax is re-writing Physics online - in ONE swoop he will win the next Nobel prize


Not me chimp, but some very prominent scientists all around the world.

Some of many,

(Baliunas & Jastrow 1990)
(Foukal & Lean 1990)
(Friis-Christensen & Lassen 1991)
(Lockwood et al 1992)
(Scuderi 1993)
(Charvatova & Strestik 1995)
(Balinius & Soon 1996-1998)
(Soon et al 1996)
(Hoyt & Schatten 1997)
(Nicola Scaffeta & Bruce J West 2008)


where are the predictions for global cooling as CO2 levels increase?


Just look at what's happening to our temperature right now.

...
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Chimp_Logic
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #437 - Oct 26th, 2013 at 7:01pm
 
Ajax wrote on Oct 26th, 2013 at 4:42pm:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:34am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 7:24am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:35pm:
WOW big predictions from the man who cant find any models to support his lunatic religion, and who dismisses every model as garbage

Now Mr Nostradamus is predicting a quiet period for the sun

Don't tell me that you have been attributing the recent warming trend to a noisey period of the suns life?

perhaps you should examine the solar irradiance variation data for the Sun - its well documented

Mr Ajax is re-writing Physics online - in ONE swoop he will win the next Nobel prize


Not me chimp, but some very prominent scientists all around the world.

Some of many,

(Baliunas & Jastrow 1990)
(Foukal & Lean 1990)
(Friis-Christensen & Lassen 1991)
(Lockwood et al 1992)
(Scuderi 1993)
(Charvatova & Strestik 1995)
(Balinius & Soon 1996-1998)
(Soon et al 1996)
(Hoyt & Schatten 1997)
(Nicola Scaffeta & Bruce J West 2008)


where are the predictions for global cooling as CO2 levels increase?


Just look at what's happening to our temperature right now.

http://i41.tinypic.com/24brsdk.png


Why does the data set in your lovely graph commence in the year 1998?
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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it_is_the_light
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #438 - Oct 26th, 2013 at 7:57pm
 


Climate Profiteers Have "Egg on Their Face"

the simple fact

it is not hu man but corporations

that simply pay to pollute

exxon BP tepco at fukushima

all is being revealed

namaste

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ॐ May Much LOVE and CHRISTS LIGHT be upon and within us all.... namasté ▲ - : )  ╰დ╮ॐ╭დ╯
it_is_the_light it_is_the_light Christ+Light Christ+Light  
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Chimp_Logic
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #439 - Oct 26th, 2013 at 8:40pm
 
it_is_the_light wrote on Oct 26th, 2013 at 7:57pm:


Climate Profiteers Have "Egg on Their Face"

the simple fact

it is not hu man but corporations

that simply pay to pollute

exxon BP tepco at fukushima

all is being revealed

namaste



corporations are a vehicle for fascism and enslavement

There are humans behind it all

freaks that shun the light like the fungi of Hades
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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Ajax
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #440 - Oct 27th, 2013 at 11:58am
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 26th, 2013 at 8:40pm:
corporations are a vehicle for fascism and enslavement

There are humans behind it all

freaks that shun the light like the fungi of Hades


The elite moguls of this world are trying to control the world we live in through many vechiles, the AGW religion being one of them....???


Quote:
“If congress has the right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given them to use themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or corporations.”
- Andrew Jackson


“The Government should create, issue, and circulate all the currency and credits needed to satisfy the spending power of the Government and the buying power of consumers. By the adoption of these principles, the taxpayers will be saved immense sums of interest. Money will cease to be master and become the servant of humanity.”
- Abraham Lincoln


“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
- Henry Ford


"Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government."
- Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference in Evians, France, 1991


"The drive of the Rockefellers and their allies is to create a one-world government combining super capitalism and Communism under the same tent, all under their control.... Do I mean conspiracy? Yes I do. I am convinced there is such a plot, international in scope, generations old in planning, and incredibly evil in intent."
- Congressman Larry P. McDonald, 1976, killed in the Korean Airlines 747 that was shot down by the Soviets


“Some even believe we (the Rockefeller family) are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as ‘internationalists’ and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure – one world, if you will. If that's the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.”
- David Rockefeller, Memoirs, page 405


"It is the system of nationalist individualism that has to go....We are living in the end of the sovereign states....In the great struggle to evoke a Westernized World Socialism, contemporary governments may vanish....Countless people...will hate the new world order....and will die protesting against it." - H.G. Wells, in his book, “The New World Order”, 1940

“Bankers own the earth; take it away from them but leave them with the power to create credit; and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again... If you want to be slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers control money and control credit.”
- Sir Josiah Stamp, Director, Bank of England, 1940.

"We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order."
- David Rockefeller


"We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years... It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
- David Rockefeller, Bilderberg Meeting, June 1991 Baden, Germany

"The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it's profits or so dependent on it's favors, that there will be no opposition from that class." - Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild


“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."
- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

“I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands, and the Republic is destroyed. I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war.” –
Abraham Lincoln - In a letter written to William Elkin

There is something behind the throne greater than the king himself.
Sir William Pitt

The world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes.
Benjamin Dislaeu
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Chimp_Logic
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #441 - Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm
 
Ajax,

why does your little linear regression graph, commence with data in the year 1998?
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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Ajax
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #442 - Oct 29th, 2013 at 8:38am
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm:
Ajax,

why does your little linear regression graph, commence with data in the year 1998?


It just shows how incompetent the IPCC computer circulation models are.

They predicted a 0.2 degree Celsius rise ever decade.

And as can be seen we have only had

0.05 degree Celsius rise over the last 15 years.

Now is the IPCC's computer circulation models JUNK or NOT....??????

...
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #443 - Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:14pm
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm:
Ajax,

why does your little linear regression graph, commence with data in the year 1998?

...
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #444 - Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:29pm
 
I can't stand that gif #, it's such an arbitrary assumption and misleading too.

There is a reason people say that 15/16/17 years whatever of stalled temperature is significant, because it contradicts the predictions. Not because "oh let's cut up every small time section and put in arbitrary downward trend lines", no it's merely pointing out a contradiction.

I'll post two graphs that are more in line what how a skeptic would view it, not all but I'm going to assume most.

The below graph is what happens when you project information clearly and since it's over a slightly longer time period than your above graph, you'll notice the trend line isn't some crazy 45degree angle, rather it represents the very small rise of about 0.25 degree average over 28 or so years. Where it becomes more like 0.09 degree rise every decade. What has been the current predicted rise in temperature in comparison to this observed?
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #445 - Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:33pm
 
Whether you agree with the below or not it is a great articulation of how AGW supporters view the future in comparison to how a skeptic might.

Where as the IPCC predicts a rise, what's important is their predictions are just so vastly different then how the temperature has reacted before in it's oscillation. Whether it rises is another question, but what's alarming is how their prediction never dips, instead they have error bands to include so many possibilities so if it does dip, they're right, if it doesn't dip they're right! They'll only be wrong if it goes below the minimum error bands which I'll post after this.

Now look at the skeptic where they can say "okay it seems to be on an upward trend but there's no reason to suggest it won't continue to oscillate as it increases and at a much less accelerated rate".
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #446 - Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:39pm
 
The below graph is so recent it's in the fifth report, or at least the draft.

The left is the original, however I removed the arbitrary grey bands that literally represent nothing, funny how they include a random grey band to try and hide the fact that their predictions are failing again. Why was the grey band added? Any explanation?

Anyway the right section is skeptics added trend lines for the predictions, the observed and a comparison encircled in 2012 to show the disparity.

Either way it should see clear enough to most.
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #447 - Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:47pm
 
Ajax wrote on Oct 29th, 2013 at 8:38am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm:
Ajax,

why does your little linear regression graph, commence with data in the year 1998?


It just shows how incompetent the IPCC computer circulation models are.

They predicted a 0.2 degree Celsius rise ever decade.

And as can be seen we have only had

0.05 degree Celsius rise over the last 15 years.

Now is the IPCC's computer circulation models JUNK or NOT....??????

http://i44.tinypic.com/2n81qqh.png


you seem to like the year 1998

very old tree that one

aren't you embarrassed?

Do you think people in here cant remember where you get your garbage from?
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #448 - Oct 30th, 2013 at 8:38am
 
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:39pm:
The below graph is so recent it's in the fifth report, or at least the draft.

The left is the original, however I removed the arbitrary grey bands that literally represent nothing, funny how they include a random grey band to try and hide the fact that their predictions are failing again. Why was the grey band added? Any explanation?

Anyway the right section is skeptics added trend lines for the predictions, the observed and a comparison encircled in 2012 to show the disparity.

Either way it should see clear enough to most.



The grey bands are error bands. It's pointless to remove them.  They represent 95% confidence limits. In predicting future temperatures, we don't have all the inputs. We can't tell if there is another GFC around the corner, or if China will emit more aerosols than expected.

If you want to deliberately misrepresent IPCC predictions, then by all means remove the error bands. Why bother? Just make a new graph that is nothing like IPCC predictions. Monckton seems to get off with that. The "Galileo Movement" obvously think it's ok to do that.

I don't know if the graphs have been tampered with other than that.
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« Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2013 at 8:46am by muso »  

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
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Ajax
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #449 - Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:04am
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:47pm:
you seem to like the year 1998

very old tree that one

aren't you embarrassed?

Do you think people in here cant remember where you get your garbage from?



Dude first find out what that old tree is......here

http://www.woodfortrees.org/

Then maybe if your ape mind will permit, you could graph some satellite data yourself.......................!!!!!!!

Chimpy sometimes your absolutely Neanderthal....!!!!
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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