Australian Politics Forum - Global cooling started.

rabbitoh07

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #75 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 1:15pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 9:51am:

except that the last 17 years has shown NO warming. Did you miss that inconvenient truth?

Funny - you told us the exact opposite a few weeks ago.

You told us that sea level rise was due to thermal expansion.

Why are the seas thermally expanding if the last 17 years has shown NO warming"?!?

You ran away the last 4 times you were asked this question.

Will you run away again now?

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rabbitoh07

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #76 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 1:17pm

BlOoDy RiPpEr wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 7:46am:

http://cdn.isciencetimes.com/data/images/full/2013/09/11/4999-global-cooling.jpg
NASA satellite images show August 2012 [left] and August 2013 [right]. (Photo: NASA)

Are we experiencing global cooling? A cool Arctic summer allowed nearly a million more squre miles of ice to form over the same time last year. This figure represents a growth of 60 percent.

The incredible arctic ice growth after the record low of 2012 is significant. Just six years ago, a science article from the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free by the summer of 2013. The indication of global cooling indicates the opposite. According to monitors, the Arctic now features an unbroken ice sheet that is larger than half of Europe. The sheet stretches from the Canadian islands all the way to Russia's northern shores. What's more, the Arctic's Northwest Passage has been blocked by ice all year. More than 20 yachts that attempted to sail the passage were left ice bound. A cruise ship was also forced to turn back around.

Oh dear.

The nut jobs are out in force today.

Despite the impressive one-year recovery, the current sea-ice extent is still nearly 400,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average minimum. Through August, the long-term decline since 1979, when satellites first began tracking sea-ice extent, has been running at 10.6 percent per decade.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2013/0910/Arctic-sea-ice-rebounds-but-don-t-jum...

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Global cooling started. Reply #77 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 1:49pm Plenty of the true faithful who prefer to cut and paste rather than think for themselves.
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polite_gandalf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20027 Canberra Gender:	Re: Global cooling started. Reply #78 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 1:55pm PZ is just coming across as every bit as irrational and hysterical as what he accuses the climate scientists of being. Ignore every refutation of his bunkum claim, and just moves on to the next bunkum claim.
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perceptions_now

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #79 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 2:36pm

Q) Is Climate Change a natural cycle?
A) Yes, it is, as demonstrated by the following chart, which shows Temperatures stretching back over a 300,000 year period!

Q) Does the chart also show a correlation between levels of CO2 & Temperatures?
A) Yes, it does!

Q) Is CO2 the only factor influencing Temperatures?
A) Probably not, but CO2 does appear to have a major influence on Temperatures, as is shown in the following -
http://www.space.com/18527-venus-atmosphere.html

Q) Is CO2 simply a colorless, odorless, harmless gas?
A) Like many things, that depends, on many factors, But I would strongly recommend against trying to live on Venus!

Q) Are we now in a Global Heating Phase OR a Global Cooling phase?
A) Well, as indicated by the above chart, we are about at the top of the usual heating cycle, so the outcomes for the upcoming period will depend on whether "mans influence" translates into further Global warming OR whether the natural cycle wins out?
So, IF mans influence continues, then it could become "uncomfortably hot", as we start to move towards a Venus Climate Trap?
But, IF the natural cycle wins out, then then it could become "uncomfortably cold",as the next Ice Age rolls in?

Whatever the outcome, Good luck, we will probably need it!

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Ajax

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #80 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 3:45pm

I agree with everything you have said except that CO2 & temperature correlate.

History shows us that CO2 and temperature don't correlate at all.

Its a well known fact that CO2 lags temperature by about 800 years.

That is first temperature rises and then the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere also rises as the eco systems warm up and release more CO2.

See below.

Is there any correlation between CO2 and temperature?

(1).....On a small time scale
(NO)
, (11,000 years)

Showing from 200 to 11000 years ago, the subsequent graph is based on ice core data, readily visible in files hosted on the servers of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):GISP 2 and EPICA Dome C

Graph-1

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-histor...

(2).....On a medium time scale YES???, (450,000 years)

(NO)
, It appears so because of the scale we are zoomed out at.

WARNING !
This is the scale that most global warming sites use to scare the unsuspecting.

Over the past few hundred thousand years of ice core data, a “medium” time scale in this sense, CO2 superficially appears to change in step with temperature if a graph is so zoomed out as to not show sub-millennial time
scales well

Graph-2

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-histor...

A record of temperature and atmospheric CO2 over the past 400,000 years is preserved in the Vostok Ice Core and is shown in the figure on the right.

It can be seen that there have been a series of large fluctuations in temperature (the Ice Ages), accompanied by large changes in atmospheric CO2.

It is thought that these large temperature fluctuations are triggered by Milankovitch cycles - variations in the earth's orbit that change the amount of energy from the sun that reaches us.

However, on their own, these cycles are not enough to explain the changes in temperature.

The full explanation seems to be that the small change in temperature caused by the changing orbit are amplified by natural processes on earth. These cause CO2 to be released from the oceans and the biosphere, causing an increased greenhouse effect.

This is described more fully in this article from the New Scientist (see also Shackleton 2000). For more details on the timing of changes in CO2 and temperature, click on the figure.

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/paleoclimate.htm#100,000years

(3).....On a long time scale
(NO)
, (millions of years)

Graph-3

http://s155.n46.n171.n68.static.myhostcenter.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocar...

(4).....Lately

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« Last Edit: Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:58pm by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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longweekend58

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #81 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 3:59pm

muso wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 1:49pm:

Plenty of the true faithful who prefer to cut and paste rather than think for themselves.

I DONT THINK THAT it would be even half-reasonable to assert that ACC fans 'think for themselves'. In fact, most on here simply copy the orthodox position endlessly and dismiss all contrary evidence without a second thought. This thread is a perfect example of that where a major increase in Arctic ice has been dismissed uncritically and seemingly without a moments thought. it is in fact a major kick in the pants to the ACC hypothesis because it is a 180degree turn from the ACC expected outcome

So quite the opposite, the ACC-sceptic side does a great deal of critical thinking while the pro-ACC side mainly does cheer-leading and very little critical analysis whatsoever.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #82 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:04pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 11:11am:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 9:58am:

You mean like the UK METs data showing no statistically relevant change in temperature over the last 17 years?

This is just a blatant distortion of what the UK MET data says. They say that global surface temperature warming has stalled, but they absolutely support the view that overall global warming is continuing:

Quote:

there is substantial evidence from other components of the climate system, beyond the global mean surface temperature, that the Earth has continued to warm over the last decade.

Contradiction? To the ignorant, blinkered eyed denialist, absolutely. For scientists though, it is absolutely to be expected. The vast majority of the earth's energy is contained in the oceans, so thats where most of the warming is happening. In summary:

Quote:

There are two main ways to explain the recent surface temperature behaviour; firstly, through changes in the net amount of incoming energy to the climate system (radiative forcing) or, secondly, through redistribution of energy within the climate system, particularly through exchange between the upper and deep ocean, which can temporarily hide the warming below the surface. Both explanations have been put forward in the literature. For instance, several studies (e.g. Solomon et al 2010, 2011, Church et al 2011) have considered potential radiative forcing explanations, while others (e.g. Knight et al 2009, Meehl et al 2011, Katsman and van Oldenborgh 2011) have examined the potential ocean heat redistribution.

The paper goes on to explain it in further detail. Suggest you read what the MET office actually says, rather than regurgitate the daily fail's distortion of what it says:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming....

Point is, it is just grossly misleading to declare warming has suddenly stopped, and use the MET office as proof of this - when they said nothing of the sort.

and the re-interpretation continues. it isn't actually warmer at all but apparently it is warmer in all the other places? you don't find it just a tad convenient? Or is there in fact being demonstrated the remarkably feedback systems in our biosphere that seems to regulate the temperature of where we live? Like it or not, the facts are unequivocal that the temperature of the surface of planet earth is stable ahd hasn't increased in 17 years. And isn't it remarkable how scientists know that this is somehow unprecedented despite there being no historical record al all of deep ocean or upper troposphere temperatures.

don't be so gullible. Temperature rises have stalled. accept it and ask the question 'why?'.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #83 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:10pm

Bam wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 11:15am:

BlOoDy RiPpEr wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 10:53am:

I'd rather look at the facts,

So why don't you look at all the facts?

Quote:

Global warming alarmist said there would be no ice in the artic by 2013

An old forecast. Big deal.

Quote:

but there is 60% growth of ice coverage since this time last year.

Your fallacy is: TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER.

Quote:

The fact is there is more ice.

Tell the whole truth. There is more ice at a specific time from one year to the next. It is not indicative of a longer-term trend.

Quote:

Global alarmist has used the ice sheets as their proof of Global warming since day 1, now there is more ice how can it be warmer, ice only forms when its colder

Global climate change is about long-term global trends.

Long-term global warming does not deny the possibility of short term local cooling. An increase in Arctic ice from 2012 to 2013 is short-term local cooling. Nor for that matter does long-term global warming deny the other possibilities of long-term local cooling or short-term global cooling.

We might well find that Arctic sea ice does increase from here. But is that proof that global cooling has started? No, of course not. It would be a local phenomenon, not a global one.

and there you have the fundamental bias and flaw in ACC hysteric 'thinking'. If it is warming, it is global, If it is cooling it is local. If it is warmer, it is a trend, if it is cooler it is not. There is not scientific method involved as it starts with a desired outcome - warming - and reverse engineers all facts to fit that pre-determined outcome.

A very, very senior scientist says that all 73 climate models are so erro-strewn and fundamentally flawed as to be useless and what is yoru response?

well nothing of course because obviously he is a denier and fraud because.... he disagrees with the ACC religion.

dreadful science, pitiful logic and worse ethics. ACC hysterics have it all!

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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muso

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #84 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:11pm

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 2:36pm:

So, IF mans influence continues, then it could become "uncomfortably hot", as we start to move towards a Venus Climate Trap?
But, IF the natural cycle wins out, then then it could become "uncomfortably cold",as the next Ice Age rolls in?

Whatever the outcome, Good luck, we will probably need it!

I don't know who spoke about the Venus climate trap, but it's highly misleading. Nobody is talking about a runaway greenhouse effect.

I'm interested to know where you got that from.

Ajax - you still don't know what correlation means.

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longweekend58

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #85 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:13pm

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 11:38am:

Bam wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 10:48am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 10:04am:

I think that the North pole getting more ice is a product
of the stopping of the Gulf Stream owing to global warming.

It is possible. Is there enough data yet to support or refute this?

I'm not sure but you could have a lot of fun googling it.

you read about the gulf stream once and being a generally simple person, every climate question must somehow involve it. for your information there is NO QUESTION of there being any notable non-cyclical change in the gulf stream.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #86 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:17pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 11:56am:

PZ your link uses the same lie about what the MET office said that longy was trying to pull.

What MET office actually says:

Quote:

this definitely doesn't mean any cooling - there's still a long-term trend of warming compared to the 50s, 60s or 70s.

Our forecast is still for temperatures that will be close to the record levels of the past few years.

And because the natural variability is based on cycles, those factors are bound to change the other way at some point.

When you lot perpetuate lies about what the MET office says, how on earth do you have a leg to stand on when you parrot on about "warmist lies"?

and if you read what the MET is saying they do however confirm that the last 17 years has shown no increase in temperature. they choose to state that it doesn't mean that warming has stopped - only paused. that however is an opinion only nd not one supported by any facts. They do not however repudiated the supplied data that does confirm that there has been no warming for 17 years.

So you can have your own interpretation of the fats if you will but you don't get to restate them. there has been no warming for 17 years and that is undeniable.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Bobby.

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #87 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:17pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:13pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 11:38am:

Bam wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 10:48am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 10:04am:

I think that the North pole getting more ice is a product
of the stopping of the Gulf Stream owing to global warming.

It is possible. Is there enough data yet to support or refute this?

I'm not sure but you could have a lot of fun googling it.

you read about the gulf stream once and being a generally simple person, every climate question must somehow involve it. for your information there is NO QUESTION of there being any notable non-cyclical change in the gulf stream.

Hi Longy,
thanks for letting me know that.
It's just that I've seen it mentioned in many docos on TV.
Would you have a link to prove that the Gulf stream is unchanged?

Would you agree that if the Gulf stream stopped - Europe would be plunged into a mini ice age?

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longweekend58

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #88 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:19pm

buzzanddidj wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 12:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 9:58am:

... the UK METs data showing no statistically relevant change in temperature over the last 17 years?

CLAIM, DEBUNKED - AEONS GO - as BULLSH!T !

Met Office in the Media: 14 October 2012
14 Nov 2012

An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’

It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some
misleading information
, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme

Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit.

We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week.

Secondly, Mr Rose says the Met Office made no comment about its decadal climate predictions. This is because he did not ask us to make a comment about them.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october...

In FACT, the LAST decade was the WARMEST in recordable HISTORY

take a look at the graph yourself. it is FLAT.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Ajax

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Re: Global cooling started.
Reply #89 - Sep 13^th, 2013 at 4:19pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 3:59pm:

muso wrote on Sep 13^th, 2013 at 1:49pm:

Plenty of the true faithful who prefer to cut and paste rather than think for themselves.

I DONT THINK THAT it would be even half-reasonable to assert that ACC fans 'think for themselves'. In fact, most on here simply copy the orthodox position endlessly and dismiss all contrary evidence without a second thought. This thread is a perfect example of that where a major increase in Arctic ice has been dismissed uncritically and seemingly without a moments thought. it is in fact a major kick in the pants to the ACC hypothesis because it is a 180degree turn from the ACC expected outcome

So quite the opposite, the ACC-sceptic side does a great deal of critical thinking while the pro-ACC side mainly does cheer-leading and very little critical analysis whatsoever.

Music to my ears.......well said......!!

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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