It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years. Temperatures averaged across Australia between September 2012 and August 2013 were hotter than any year since good records began in 1910. The previous record was held by the 12-month period from February 2005 to January 2006.

The new record follows a suite of broken records following last year’s “angry summer”, including the hottest summer since records began.

New weather records are being set all the time. Sometimes these are record cold temperatures, but more often in recent times these have been record hot temperatures. A common question is what is the human role, if any, in these records compared with natural variations of weather and climate?

The link between global warming and human causes has been firmly established over the last two decades. Multiple studies have shown that it is very unlikely that natural variations in climate can explain recent global climate change. While these results are clear, it is still helpful to determine the influence of global warming on regional climate extremes, since such extremes are often more influenced by natural variability.

However, attributing a single event or a record to human activities isn’t easy. But last year Hurricane Sandy put the spotlight on climate change and extreme weather.

And in late June this year, our scientific study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters showed human-caused climate change substantially increased the likelihood of the very hot 2013 Australian summer. Human influences on the climate system increased the chances of our record hot summer by more than five times.

Using the same approach, we have now analysed the past 12-month’s temperatures across Australia. Our results show that human influences on the climate very likely increased by more than one hundred times the chances of the record 12-month Australia temperature.

We started our analysis by considering more than 20 of the latest generation of climate models. These models all participated in an international initiative that undertakes standardised climate model experiments. From these we selected the nine models that best captured the observed variability in Australian average temperature to perform our analyses.

Using these remaining nine state-of-the-art global climate models, we investigated the chances of setting a new record high 12-month average temperature across Australia. The previous record was set in 2005.

We compared temperature probabilities from a suite of model simulations of the climate including only natural climate influences (volcanoes and solar radiation changes) with a parallel set of model simulations including natural and human influences on the climate, such as increasing greenhouse gases.

The results were clear. When human influences were included in the model simulations, the probability of setting a new record, as occurred at the end of August 2013, was dramatically higher. Indeed, it was very likely (with 90% confidence) that human influences increased the odds by at least 100 times of setting a new record 12-month temperature.







[continued ...]

the next El Ninio cycle is just around the corner

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 5^th, 2013 at 6:30pm:



Well, given the low solar irradiance, we should have less warming.  Other than that, we can only speak in terms of general trends.

In my part of the world, it was a very hot winter.

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 5^th, 2013 at 6:30pm:

In principle, all things are possible. The question is one of probabilities. According to the vast majority of the best qualified, humans are most likely contributing substantially to the warming of the planet.

Where do you think the probabilities lie?

Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 5^th, 2013 at 6:12pm:


Hansen claimed that there would be a tendency for more frequent La Nina periods, but it wasn't generally accepted.

John Smith wrote on Sep 5^th, 2013 at 10:07pm:


I suppose that is a possibility, although I think feeling the cold due to age is a more likely a gradual thing ,and doesn't suddenly kick in 'overnight' as it were..

OOhhh please more AGW religious propaganda.

Seriously someone writes a paper that the Earth is melting and these guys on here are flashing it around like the front page of a tabloid newspaper.

Without even checking to see if its just sensationalism.

How about we have a look at what the satellites are showing us about all this warming.


http://joannenova.com.au/2013/06/australias-angry-hot-summer-was-hot-angry-hype-...

Seriously you have to take everything on this forum that is presented as proof of man being responsible for the Earth warming with a pinch of salt.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/humans-contributed-to-austra...

And you guys question the likes of Soon.

And Karoly is a government paid tax payer funded soak spruiker for the warmist cult. Of course he would say that.

Your point is pointless.

# wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 2:21pm:


So, are you paid to spruik too? or are you just another sheep meekly falling into line?

# wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 3:01pm:


really......?? whatever you are on, ease back a bit.

So you criticize Soon and tell me Karoly is ok.

Talk about cheery picking.

I don't think I can take you seriously any longer....

muso wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 3:47pm:


My motivation is not political, but the AGW religion sure is..?

You guys always fall back on the fossil fuel industry giving large sums of money to denialists.

Have you ever asked WTF banks are giving BILLIONS to fund the AGW religion.....???

muso wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 4:09pm:


Can you prove that CO2 & temperature correlate.....?????

muso wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 5:04pm:


Has there ever been a standard here on Earth for CO2 in our atmosphere or temperature........?

Can man ever hope to achieve such a thing....???

This is the futility of your argument that AGW is responsible for the warming of the Earth.

Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 9^th, 2013 at 10:18am:


You are acting as though the Earth has never experienced these things before.

We all know that it has, its not a first therefore plunging us all into the unknown.

Take a look at our history..........!!!!!!

Svante Arrhenius never had the benefit of hindsight.

Did he know that we have continuously gone through the process of higher and lower CO2 levels in our atmosphere from day dot.

What was his knowledge of the history with respect to CO2 levels in our atmosphere.....??!!

Ajax wrote on Sep 9^th, 2013 at 10:25am:


Didn't you read the article?

What exactly is your argument - apart from conspiracy paranoia and an allegiance to right wing corporate fascism?

You are like a flat earth society member - a tokenistic dying species

Either place some evidence on the table and present some rational alternative reasons as to why the planet has been rapidly warming over the last few decades, or go away

I have very little time for clown puppet maggot freaks who carry wheel barrows full of deceptions and ignorance wherever they go

cheers

How many of these Pacific Island Tide Guages were solidly anchored to living coral?

Lord Herbert wrote on Sep 10^th, 2013 at 5:57pm:

La Nina.

Well I'm glad FD is having more luck fishing than I am.