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Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"? (Read 19716 times)
skippy.
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #60 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 8:55pm
 
freediver wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 8:44pm:
skippy. wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 8:37pm:
Grey wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 7:58pm:
The Labor Party has been 'Liberal' light for years. Now that it's finally imploded the rise of the Greens is inevitable. Ironically the debacle that is now the ALP will mark the turning point of a swing back to real left wing values. 

Yea I agree. But I think the Greens have one major obstacle and that is preferential voting. I hate that I have to preference one of the major parties in the HORs.


Why is that a problem skippy? Do you realise that your preferences will only flow to a major party after every minor party you prefer has been eliminated on the grounds that they cannot win the election? And that the existence of your later preferences does not in any way facilitate the elimination of those minor parties?

Alternatives like first past the post are 1000 times worse for minor parties.

Yea I do. But it always comes down to two parties being able to win the election. Look at how Labor and Liberal do deals to put the Greens last, like in Bandts case. There has to be a fairer system. I will not vote in the HORs this year, first time ever, because I refuse to preference the Nationals or Labor, so my vote would be invalid.
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freediver
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #61 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 9:19pm
 
It only comes down to those two parties because they are the two most popular parties. That's what democracy is all about.

What do you think of this system?

http://www.ozpolitic.com/electoral-reform/voting-by-delegable-proxy.html
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Postmodern Trendoid III
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #62 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 9:28pm
 
Grey wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 7:58pm:
The Labor Party has been 'Liberal' light for years. Now that it's finally imploded the rise of the Greens is inevitable. Ironically the debacle that is now the ALP will mark the turning point of a swing back to real left wing values. 


I doubt the Greens will gain much more popularity than what they currently have. The majority of people look at them as a kind of joke.
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namnugenot
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #63 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 9:51pm
 
If you want to be an alternative you don't support and climb into bed with one of those you are looking to be an alternative to. A vote for the Greens is now a vote for the Labs everyone knows it. Since the democrats voted in the GST I have placed them last in every election. Meg lees drove a stake through the heart of the democrats. With the democrats dead and all but buried I'm looking for someone new for that spot and it looks like I have one. I don't know about anyone else but who I put last is much more important to me than who I put first.
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #64 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 10:04pm
 
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If you want to be an alternative you don't support and climb into bed with one of those you are looking to be an alternative to.


Like the National and Liberal parties?

Quote:
A vote for the Greens is now a vote for the Labs everyone knows it.


They are different parties with different policies and the Greens have shown that they are both able to govern effectively in coalition and able to achieve some of their own policies despite being a minor partner. It's not like the carbon tax was Labor policy. We have a different outcome than we would have had if Labor had won outright. That's how it works.
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Karnal
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #65 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 10:11pm
 
Phallic Baldwin wrote on Mar 14th, 2013 at 9:17pm:
They haven't moved in the polls - they seem to only have their core supporters.

Plus they LOST seats in WA.

I don't think they will go the way of the Dems, but they have definitely peaked 2 years ago. Bob saying goodbye didnt help matters.


It wasn’t Bob, Phallic, it was Matty. He ran two Sydney branches. He left to avoid the carbon tax.

He went to New Zealand, I think, to work on animal welfare.

Something tells me you have a similar interest, right?
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Karnal
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #66 - Mar 23rd, 2013 at 10:12pm
 
Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 9:28pm:
Grey wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 7:58pm:
The Labor Party has been 'Liberal' light for years. Now that it's finally imploded the rise of the Greens is inevitable. Ironically the debacle that is now the ALP will mark the turning point of a swing back to real left wing values. 


I doubt the Greens will gain much more popularity than what they currently have. The majority of people look at them as a kind of joke.


You mean the people at the uni?
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longweekend58
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #67 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 6:36am
 
skippy. wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 7:40pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 6:44pm:
skippy. wrote on Mar 17th, 2013 at 11:23am:
Maqqa wrote on Mar 17th, 2013 at 11:12am:
Dnarever wrote on Mar 17th, 2013 at 12:44am:
Macca: Quote:
damn Howard took the GST to an election when he changed his mind


Howard never changed his mind he always supported a GST and what does that have to do with the democrats?




They supported the GST didn't they?

Actually they didn't support it, only the leader of the time did, so she got her ass kicked out as leader and left the party only to start another party that died in the ass, all as a result of supporting a lying little rodent. The democrats party, were totally against supporting it.


wrong again. they had a conscience vote and some supported it and some didn't. it passed just the same.

Rewriting history again, you like to do that. Roll Eyes five senators backed it, while two said no way. At the same time the grass roots of the party ran a campaign against it, the overwhelming majority of Demorcrats members were against it. The party always listened to the party members, this time they didn't, and Lees paid the price with her ass being kicked out after a petition to remove her as leader, stop rewriting history. The party were against, only the dog Lees and the South African prick pushed for it, they were both hated by their own party for being dogs.


so in summary, some voted for it and some voted against it. exactly what I said in the first place.
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longweekend58
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #68 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 6:41am
 
Quote:
So tell us about the fall of the National Party? Or the Greens? Oh wait, we cannot look at them as examples either, can we?


the national party has been the defacto liberal party in the bush and they (mostly) dont compete against each other. that makes them a special case. And I cant believe you use the Greens as an example given that they are following the same trajectory but have not yet finished the cycle. 2010 was their high point and every election since has seen their position erode and they are severl percent down federally from then as well. and all this in an environment where the ALP is bleeding support and the greens are picking it up. and still they are dropping.

if you want to use an example of a genuine third party remaining then you will have to make one up because they dont last.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #69 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 6:45am
 
Quote:
there is the australia party, th DLP, the NDP etc... same trajectory, same fate.


Ah, the examples we are allowed to consider. Thanks for picking and choosing the evidence for us longy.


I said all the post-ware third parties. if there are others then feel free to use them but I don't remember them either because.... they cam and went - just as I said happens to them all.

I said post-war because that was so you wouldn't use your idiotic example of the ALP and Liberal parties as (unbelievably) examples of third parties arising.

i know you would LOVE a third party to come to the fore and that is fine. what is not fine is making stuff up and pretending something is true that isnt.  Even the Democrats prove my point by the fact that their longevity was given because they WEREN'T effectively a third party but rather an external conscience to the existing ones. as soon as they decided to become a genuine third party they died.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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olde.sault
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #70 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 6:48am
 
Phallic Baldwin wrote on Mar 14th, 2013 at 9:17pm:
They haven't moved in the polls - they seem to only have their core supporters.

Plus they LOST seats in WA.

I don't think they will go the way of the Dems, but they have definitely peaked 2 years ago. Bob saying goodbye didnt help matters.


Yep, Bob cacked and then Bob left, muttering "The carbon tax done 'em good" then chuckled.
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longweekend58
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #71 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 6:49am
 
Quote:
When labor gets its act together (and it will take time) they will return and the Greens will be back with just their hard-core supporters... not many.


Have you ever bothered to consider the polling in terms of the competition between Labor and the Greens? I pointed out earlier that most of the drop in Greens support coincides with a drop in Labor's support in favour of the coalition. In fact the Greens even seem to suffer less. Do you have any evidence to support your prediction, other than wishful thinking?


well I guess we could start with pointing and laughing at you for your unwillingness to accept the generally understood notion that disaffected labor supporters tend to drif to the Green rather than vote for 'the enemy' (coalition). but moving beyond that the entire point was that the 2008-2010 significant rise in the greens support came at the same time a s big drop in labor support. the drift was obvious.  But now the greens support is dropping so fast that labor voters arent stemming the tide. That does not disprove the proposition.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #72 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 6:51am
 
freediver wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 8:44pm:
skippy. wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 8:37pm:
Grey wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 7:58pm:
The Labor Party has been 'Liberal' light for years. Now that it's finally imploded the rise of the Greens is inevitable. Ironically the debacle that is now the ALP will mark the turning point of a swing back to real left wing values. 

Yea I agree. But I think the Greens have one major obstacle and that is preferential voting. I hate that I have to preference one of the major parties in the HORs.


Why is that a problem skippy? Do you realise that your preferences will only flow to a major party after every minor party you prefer has been eliminated on the grounds that they cannot win the election? And that the existence of your later preferences does not in any way facilitate the elimination of those minor parties?

Alternatives like first past the post are 1000 times worse for minor parties.


and therein lies the essence of your error. ELECTORAL SYSTEMS do not exists to facilitate or punish parties. it exists to put in power the parties people want. minor parties are called 'minor' because they dont have enough support to be counted. tough. thats what we call democracy or rule by the MAJORITY.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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skippy.
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #73 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 8:32am
 
freediver wrote on Mar 23rd, 2013 at 9:19pm:
It only comes down to those two parties because they are the two most popular parties. That's what democracy is all about.

What do you think of this system?

http://www.ozpolitic.com/electoral-reform/voting-by-delegable-proxy.html

I think people that were interested in politics would be interested in the option of that sort of system. But I think the average punter on the street would find it too confusing and too much hard work for them to be bothered.
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freediver
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Re: Are the greens no longer seen as an "alternative"?
Reply #74 - Mar 24th, 2013 at 10:50am
 
Quote:
I think people that were interested in politics would be interested in the option of that sort of system. But I think the average punter on the street would find it too confusing and too much hard work for them to be bothered.


I think it is actually less confusing than our current system. It is surprising how many people misunderstand how preferential voting works. Very few people understand all the implications of their Senate vote.

Quote:
the national party has been the defacto liberal party in the bush and they (mostly) dont compete against each other. that makes them a special case. And I cant believe you use the Greens as an example given that they are following the same trajectory but have not yet finished the cycle.


In other words, they are on the up, and the only conclusion you can draw is that they will follow the democrats. Not because the evidence actually supports this. Wishful thinking trumps all in your analysis.

Quote:
2010 was their high point and every election since has seen their position erode and they are severl percent down federally from then as well.


I almost got you understand the concept we have been discussing, but now you are retreating to a primary school level analysis. You would not say that the Labor party is going downhill even though they show the same trend. You admit that the Greens compete against Labor, not the coalition, but you are afraid to measure their performance against that of the Labor party. So you end up mistaking the cyclic left-right swings for the demise of one of the left wing parties, but not the other. We see the same trend for two parties, yet you manage to reach the opposite conclusion for each party. Other than wishful thinking and a very selective choice of evidence, you have nothing to support your position. So go ahead and fall back to "let's finish this discussion in 6 years".

Quote:
and all this in an environment where the ALP is bleeding support and the greens are picking it up.


Wow, you even acknowledge that the Greens are mainly competing against labor and gaining ground, but what you see is the opposite of what is right in front of you. Why is it so hard for you to understand these concepts?

Quote:
if you want to use an example of a genuine third party remaining then you will have to make one up because they dont last


Yes they do. I have given plenty of examples. You just choose to ignore them because they don't fit your agenda of blind wishful thinking in the face of reality. Here are some examples:

The Labor Party
The Liberal Party
The National Party
The Greens
And the predecessors to some of these parties

Now lets watch as Longy finds some BS excuse to ignore every single one of these examples.

Quote:
I said all the post-ware third parties.


Yes Longy, we noticed you trying to exclude every bit of evidence that doesn't fit your wishful thinking agenda. This is not rational Longy. It merely reveals the extent of your willful self delusion.

Quote:
if there are others then feel free to use them but I don't remember them either because...


There are the Greens and the national party - oh wait, you have even more BS excuses for them too.

Quote:
I said post-war because that was so you wouldn't use your idiotic example of the ALP and Liberal parties as (unbelievably) examples of third parties arising


Why are they idiotic? Do we need to see the collapse of major parties every dozen election cycles for you to remember that it can and does happen? The only thing that is idiotic is your insistence on excluding these examples of minor parties becoming stable major parties on the grounds that they became stable major parties. You use the fact that they succeeded at what you insist is impossible to exclude them as evidence that other parties can achieve what you blindly insist is impossible.

Quote:
i know you would LOVE a third party to come to the fore and that is fine.


Longy you are the only one putting wishful thinking above reality.

Quote:
what is not fine is making stuff up and pretending something is true that isnt.


The Labor Party, the Liberal Party, the National Party, the Greens, and the predecessors to some of these parties are not made up examples. They are real. The only thing that is imaginary is your reasoning for excluding every example that disagrees with your infantile analysis. The only justification you appear to have for excluding them is directly related to the fact that these examples disprove your absurd claims.

Quote:
but moving beyond that the entire point was that the 2008-2010 significant rise in the greens support came at the same time a s big drop in labor support. the drift was obvious.  But now the greens support is dropping so fast that labor voters arent stemming the tide. That does not disprove the proposition.


So the only time that you can see what is right in front of you is when labor is going down and the Greens are going up? If they are both moving in the same direction, you suddenly loose your ability at rational analysis? Can you explain why you reach opposite conclusions for Labor and the Greens, even though the Greens are still gaining relative to Labor? What does it take to make you see what is right in front of you?
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