longweekend58 wrote on Mar 23
rd, 2013 at 6:43pm:
freediver wrote on Mar 17
th, 2013 at 10:52am:
Dnarever wrote on Mar 17
th, 2013 at 12:16am:
freediver wrote on Mar 16
th, 2013 at 11:38pm:
Quote:so have you found a post-war example of a thrid party doing ANYTHING beyond rise and fall? no, you cant - because it hasnt happened.
Sure. The Nationals. And the Greens. Got any more silly questions? Perhaps you need an example from the last six months of a minor party starting from nothing then gradually taking over one side of the political spectrum from a major party?
You left out the Liberal party. 1945 - 1955, 1955, 1955, 1955 ...........1955.
Thanks dna.
Longy, is this a reasonable summary of your argument:
We cannot consider the historical example of the National Party.
We cannot consider the historical example of the Liberal Party, or any of the many minor and major parties that preceded it.
We cannot consider the example of the rise of the Labor party, whose unusual staying power since their rise appears to be the ultimate source of your position.
The only example we can consider is the Democrats, because they achieved a similar level of popularity (albeit from a centrist position - something fairly unusual) before falling. The Democrats are the one example you can find that you hope the Greens will follow, so that is the only historical example you are prepared to accept. Everyone else must also accept this as the only example. The only conclusion people can draw from this example is that the Greens will do exactly what the Democrats did. No other outcome is possible.
my position is to look at the post-war period and all you see is thrid parties rise and fall. that is ALL.
So tell us about the fall of the National Party? Or the Greens? Oh wait, we cannot look at them as examples either, can we?
Quote: and if you want we can have this debate in 6 years time when the greens support is <5%.
I accept your surrender.
Quote:there is the australia party, th DLP, the NDP etc... same trajectory, same fate.
Ah, the examples we are allowed to consider. Thanks for picking and choosing the evidence for us longy.
Quote:When labor gets its act together (and it will take time) they will return and the Greens will be back with just their hard-core supporters... not many.
Have you ever bothered to consider the polling in terms of the competition between Labor and the Greens? I pointed out earlier that most of the drop in Greens support coincides with a drop in Labor's support in favour of the coalition. In fact the Greens even seem to suffer less. Do you have any evidence to support your prediction, other than wishful thinking?