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Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks. (Read 3857 times)
longweekend58
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #45 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:02am
 
MOTR wrote on Mar 3rd, 2013 at 6:01am:
Coverage bias is not something Bob has made up. Brush away the hyperbole and you are left with an interesting problem. A problem pollsters around the world have been aware of for quite some time.

Quote:
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll#Coverage_bias

Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of the Literary Digest in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without.

In some places many people have only mobile telephones. Because pollsters cannot call mobile phones (it is unlawful in the United States to make unsolicited calls to phones where the phone's owner may be charged simply for taking a call), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll. Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by the Pew Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."

This issue was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008 US presidential election. In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006.[15] This results in "coverage error". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for Obama, than polls that did not.

The potential sources of bias are
Some households use cellphones only and have no landline. This tends to include minorities and younger voters; and occurs more frequently in metropolitan areas. Men are more likely to be cellphone-only compared to women.

Some people may not be contactable by landline from Monday to Friday and may be contactable only by cellphone.

Some people use their landlines only to access the Internet, and answer calls only to their cellphones.

Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll:
It is difficult to get co-operation from cellphone users, because in many parts of the US, users are charged for both outgoing and incoming calls. That means that pollsters have had to offer financial compensation to gain co-operation.

US federal law prohibits the use of automated dialling devices to call cellphones (Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991). Numbers therefore have to be dialled by hand, which is more time-consuming and expensive for pollsters.

An oft-quoted example of opinion polls succumbing to errors occurred during the UK General Election of 1992. Despite the polling organizations using different methodologies, virtually all the polls taken before the vote, and to a lesser extent, exit polls taken on voting day, showed a lead for the opposition Labour party, but the actual vote gave a clear victory to the ruling Conservative party.


Currently the views of Australian mobile phone users only, may not vary enough from those of the general population to skew the results. This may explain why Newspoll is yet to experience a major discrepancy between it's final polling result and the actual election result. However, it seems that this is due to good luck rather than good management.


you win the lottery by good luck. but if you win it 15 times in a row, you have a valid system. newspoll is accurate EVERY TIME when compared to election results. That isnt luck.


yes it is probably time to include mobile phones but nobody expects that to change the results at all.

and Bob Ellis is still a complete bozo, imagining criminal conspiracies  where they are not and blaming the libs for literally everything. You clearly haev the capacity to write your own critique on polling techniques so why not do it? Quoting bob Ellis just means we laugh and mock.
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KJT1981
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #46 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:48am
 
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John Smith
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #47 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:52am
 
longweekend58 wrote on Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:02am:
newspoll is accurate EVERY TIME when compared to election results


so when newspoll predicted that labor would romp it in in the ACT elections, so much so that betting agencies were paying out before the election was even held, it was correct? .....

I know, the vote counters must have got it wrong and not newspoll.
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Dnarever
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #48 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:54am
 
The polls are no different today then they were when favouring Labor.

if they show a trend it is typically close to the mark.

No doubt there are flaws in the process and eventually if not corrected for the poll results will become unreliable.
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Andrei.Hicks
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #49 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:56am
 
Bob Ellis.

1. A member of the Australian Labor Party.
2. Written speeches for four Labor leaders.
3. Speech writer for SA Labor Premier Mike Rann.
4. Openly campaigns against the Coalition.

Excuse me for regarding this fella as a biased hack.
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #50 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:00am
 
Andrei.Hicks wrote on Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:56am:
Bob Ellis.

1. A member of the Australian Labor Party.
2. Written speeches for four Labor leaders.
3. Speech writer for SA Labor Premier Mike Rann.
4. Openly campaigns against the Coalition.

Excuse me for regarding this fella as a biased hack.


Most of the stuff we ever read is written by biased hacks. Got anything else, big fella.
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Andrei.Hicks
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #51 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:05am
 
Got anything else?

To consider an article from a speech writer for the Labor Party dressed up as journalism???

Yeah. You should use this article as toilet paper.

Labor are getting desperate now.
They've tanked for 3 years, now when we're in the 10th round and 9-0 down they are starting to blame the referee.

It all stinks of desperation.
Look at the character attacks on Tony Abbott. They're desperate now aren't they?
Can't you see it?
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #52 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:09am
 
Dnarever wrote on Mar 3rd, 2013 at 8:54am:
The polls are no different today then they were when favouring Labor.

if they show a trend it is typically close to the mark.

No doubt there are flaws in the process and eventually if not corrected for the poll results will become unreliable.


The mobile phone coverage problem has only arisen over the last 10 years or so. Superficially, it appears to be one that has the potential to skew the results. It certainly is a growing problem.
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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #53 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:11am
 
Andrei.Hicks wrote on Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:05am:
Got anything else?

To consider an article from a speech writer for the Labor Party dressed up as journalism???

Yeah. You should use this article as toilet paper.

Labor are getting desperate now.
They've tanked for 3 years, now when we're in the 10th round and 9-0 down they are starting to blame the referee.

It all stinks of desperation.
Look at the character attacks on Tony Abbott. They're desperate now aren't they?
Can't you see it?


Just as I suspected.
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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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KJT1981
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #54 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:12am
 
Bob Ellis is  a vile creature.

"He has had a long and close involvement with politics, covering as a journalist twenty-four campaigns in Australia, the UK and the USA, and writing speeches or slogans for Kim Beazley, Bob Carr, Mike Rann, Jim Bacon, John Faulkner, Cheryl Kernot, Bob Brown and Mark Latham."

http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~senagal/bio.htm

"Bob Ellis, Australian writer, journalist, film-maker and political commentator, has had a long association with the Australian Labor Party, as a supporter, commentator and critic. His campaign as an Independent candidate in the by-election for the federal seat of Mackellar on Sydney's northern beaches in 1994, was framed as a partisan contest against the Liberal candidate, Bronwyn Bishop. No Labor candidate was fielded and, although Ellis was unsuccessful in winning the seat, his devestating editorials against Bishop, mainly published in the Manly Daily, and the resultant swing against the Liberals, are seen to have effectively ended her run for the Liberal Party leadership."

http://acms.sl.nsw.gov.au/item/itemDetailPaged.aspx?itemID=16864
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Andrei.Hicks
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #55 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:12am
 
Don't you think there is a genuine worry around the Labor movement now about the polls?

Remember they also do their own polling and an article I read by Laurie Oakes, a respected in the know guy, said their polls also show them well behind?

Can you not see they are worried now?
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KJT1981
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #56 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:14am
 
Quote:
Most of the stuff we ever read is written by biased hacks. Got anything else, big fella.



If that is the case, why do you believe Ellis and not Bolt?
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Andrei.Hicks
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #57 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:15am
 
MOTR if you can't see that the Labor movement is concerned about their numbers then your powers of perception need honing?

Why do you think the coordinated personal attacks on Abbott?
Why the constant calls now of media bias?

Why do you think this is happening?
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Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde
 
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #58 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:28am
 
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:14am:
Quote:
Most of the stuff we ever read is written by biased hacks. Got anything else, big fella.



If that is the case, why do you believe Ellis and not Bolt?


I don't necessarily believe either of them. I'm curious about polling methods and biases. Amongst other things Bob has raised the issue of coverage bias. A well known concern monitored by professional pollsters. It seems that this well known bias has not skewed results in Australia, based on margins of error. However, this does not mean it is not affecting our current polls. I'd prefer the bias wasnt there, but removing it probably creates just as many problems as it solves.

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KJT1981
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #59 - Mar 3rd, 2013 at 9:30am
 
Quote:
I don't necessarily believe either of them.



Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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