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Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks. (Read 3831 times)
Aussie
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #15 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm
 
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:11pm:
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:09pm:
Do you not know what powers the Senate has?

Cheesy


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy


Do you think the senate would give a sh1t?


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #16 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm
 
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:02pm:
Quote:
This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.



The above is something Miss Borg (another nut job) would say.


It looks like your intellectual kit bag is pretty limited.
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cods
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #17 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:00pm
 
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:19pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:11pm:
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:09pm:
Do you not know what powers the Senate has?

Cheesy


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy


Do you think the senate would give a sh1t?





zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I would hope they had better things to dow ith their time seeing as how we pay them... a bloody poll for gods sakes.. something  like ones horoscope one has to read it... or else... then completely forgets about it...

unless you are Bob Ellis of course and one or two obsessed by polls on here....otherwise.. why worry gillard doesnt.LOL

glad I dont pay Bob Ellis
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cods
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #18 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:03pm
 
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:11pm:
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:09pm:
Do you not know what powers the Senate has?

Cheesy


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy


Do you think the senate would give a sh1t?


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy



REALLY you are worried about a poll.. for gods sake get a life....I mean a bloke has sat down and worked out..[he thinks ] how people respond to polls... lol......I lie all the time wouldnt give them the satisfaction of knowing anything about me that I dont know about them..

and I am not alone..why would you tell a complete stranger who and why you vote for someone.. daft..
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KJT1981
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #19 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:24pm
 
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:11pm:
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:09pm:
Do you not know what powers the Senate has?

Cheesy


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy


Do you think the senate would give a sh1t?


I don't know, but you obviously did not know that the Senate can make it it's business if it elects to do so.  That is what Ellis was advocating.

Cheesy


Never assume anything about me Aussie as you like the rest on her know bugger all about me.
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KJT1981
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #20 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:26pm
 
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:02pm:
Quote:
This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.



The above is something Miss Borg (another nut job) would say.


It looks like your intellectual kit bag is pretty limited.



You are free to think that as long as i am free to put you in the group Miss Borg is in.
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Aussie
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #21 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:33pm
 
From KJT1981:

Quote:
Never assume anything about me Aussie as you like the rest on her know bugger all about me.


Quite correct.  However, I do see what you post, including this:

Quote:
WTF does it have to do with the Senate?


That tells me you have no idea about the powers of The Senate.

Smiley
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #22 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:37pm
 
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:26pm:
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:02pm:
Quote:
This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.



The above is something Miss Borg (another nut job) would say.


It looks like your intellectual kit bag is pretty limited.



You are free to think that as long as i am free to put you in the group Miss Borg is in.


Classic.

KJT. Do you think the switch from landline to mobile numbers is likely to add bias to telephone polls?
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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #23 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:41pm
 
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 12:24pm:
Quote:
The Newspoll fraud continues, and shows, this morning, variety.

It has not only ‘been weighted to reflect the population distribution’ (translation: we made up the figures) but, this time, would you actually believe it, not taken, not taken at all, ‘in areas affected by flood and bushfire’; in Queensland, that is, where the anti-Newman pro-Katter surge is huge now; in the Hunter Valley where Labor predominates, or used to; in Eden Monario, a litmus seat; and in Victoria where the Baillieu-blighted Liberal vote is rapidly tanking.

This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.

There are also 9 percent ‘refused’ or ‘uncommitted’, representing a million voters. A million is a tidy few. On top of which are, oh, fifteen million mobile phones not being rung.

It is tempting for these reasons to call this poll entirely worthless, or the equivalent of mass forgery, or Confederate currency in 1866; but it does show evidence, comrades, of a game-changing shift in voter intent.

This is to be seen in the ‘Others’ column, up from 6.6 in 2010 to 11 last weekend. That 4.4 shift, half a million votes, is clearly going Katter’s way in those heartland Queensland seats the LNP can’t easily hold any more, the ones unflooded last weekend that is, the half of rural and coastal Queensland that wasn’t flooded.

So, if you un-tweak the figures, throw in a margin of error, and some Katter votes trickling down to Labor in preferences, and some ten million mobile phones unrung, Labor wins this poll or scores 49.5, and Gillard leads Abbott 39-37.

I ask the Senate to investigate Newspoll and ask it to justify its methodology. About twenty-five percent of Australians don’t have, or don’t use landline phones any more since it’s cheaper to use mobiles only. And those mobiles aren’t rung, not one of them. Which means three million voters, probably, aren’t contacted. And the answered landlines, the whole of the sample that is, belong to and are used by preponderantly older people; who mostly, not always, vote Liberal.

It’s a pack of lies, probably.

Discuss.


I've no doubt newspoll selectively times the running of certain poll questions. I've also no doubt it picks certain regions to run a poll to construct, or exaggerate, a certain outcome. God knows what polls aren't published because they don't fit Murdoch's desired narrative.

Bob's concerns about Newpoll's methodology also appear quite reasonable. With polls seemingly driving the news cycle and no doubt feeding back into the polls, Bob raises some very important questions.

For those interested in the poll that Bob was referring to, this blog post was made on the 26th of Feb.

http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2013/02/26/10774/


Quoting Bob Ellis destroys what little credibility you have left. Even the ALP is embarrassed by his stupidity.

Ultimately Newpoll has to compare its predictions with actual elections. Unfortunately for the rather stupid Bob Ellis, newspoll comes up trumps with a MoE of 1.1%
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #24 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:41pm
 
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:37pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:26pm:
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:02pm:
Quote:
This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.



The above is something Miss Borg (another nut job) would say.


It looks like your intellectual kit bag is pretty limited.



You are free to think that as long as i am free to put you in the group Miss Borg is in.


Classic.

KJT. Do you think the switch from landline to mobile numbers is likely to add bias to telephone polls?

You might as well go internet polls if you are going to go mobile phones.
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longweekend58
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #25 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:45pm
 
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:37pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:26pm:
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:20pm:
KJT1981 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 1:02pm:
Quote:
This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.



The above is something Miss Borg (another nut job) would say.


It looks like your intellectual kit bag is pretty limited.



You are free to think that as long as i am free to put you in the group Miss Borg is in.


Classic.

KJT. Do you think the switch from landline to mobile numbers is likely to add bias to telephone polls?


given that the results match actual election results pretty well, you'd be forced to say no.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #26 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:47pm
 
Quote:
Quoting Bob Ellis destroys what little credibility you have left.


I reckon, melielongtime, you ought be the very last person to question the credibility of anyone when you had the gall to post that Abbott had previously beaten Rudd.  Forgotten who it was, but someone was hounded mercilessly here because they made some comment about Howard and an F-111.  I expect those people, and many more, to hound you forever for making that remark.  I know I will.

Smiley
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longweekend58
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #27 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:54pm
 
Aussie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:47pm:
Quote:
Quoting Bob Ellis destroys what little credibility you have left.


I reckon, melielongtime, you ought be the very last person to question the credibility of anyone when you had the gall to post that Abbott had previously beaten Rudd.  Forgotten who it was, but someone was hounded mercilessly here because they made some comment about Howard and an F-111.  I expect those people, and many more, to hound you forever for making that remark.  I know I will.

Smiley


Abbott beat Rudd. How do I know??? pretty simple. Because of Rudds drop in the polls and Abbotts meteoric rise, Rudd was dumped because of Abbotts supremacy over him while Abbott is in his 4th year of leadership.

If this is what you call 'losing' then it would explain why you support Labor. You are daft.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #28 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 3:16pm
 
Cute, melielongtime.  That is not what you said.  This is what you said:

Quote:
Rudd was beaten by Abbott once before and doing it again would be pretty easy - and this time Rudd starts a light year behind.


Cheesy
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MOTR
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Re: Bob Ellis on Murdoch's dirty tricks.
Reply #29 - Mar 2nd, 2013 at 3:20pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 2:41pm:
MOTR wrote on Mar 2nd, 2013 at 12:24pm:
Quote:
The Newspoll fraud continues, and shows, this morning, variety.

It has not only ‘been weighted to reflect the population distribution’ (translation: we made up the figures) but, this time, would you actually believe it, not taken, not taken at all, ‘in areas affected by flood and bushfire’; in Queensland, that is, where the anti-Newman pro-Katter surge is huge now; in the Hunter Valley where Labor predominates, or used to; in Eden Monario, a litmus seat; and in Victoria where the Baillieu-blighted Liberal vote is rapidly tanking.

This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.

There are also 9 percent ‘refused’ or ‘uncommitted’, representing a million voters. A million is a tidy few. On top of which are, oh, fifteen million mobile phones not being rung.

It is tempting for these reasons to call this poll entirely worthless, or the equivalent of mass forgery, or Confederate currency in 1866; but it does show evidence, comrades, of a game-changing shift in voter intent.

This is to be seen in the ‘Others’ column, up from 6.6 in 2010 to 11 last weekend. That 4.4 shift, half a million votes, is clearly going Katter’s way in those heartland Queensland seats the LNP can’t easily hold any more, the ones unflooded last weekend that is, the half of rural and coastal Queensland that wasn’t flooded.

So, if you un-tweak the figures, throw in a margin of error, and some Katter votes trickling down to Labor in preferences, and some ten million mobile phones unrung, Labor wins this poll or scores 49.5, and Gillard leads Abbott 39-37.

I ask the Senate to investigate Newspoll and ask it to justify its methodology. About twenty-five percent of Australians don’t have, or don’t use landline phones any more since it’s cheaper to use mobiles only. And those mobiles aren’t rung, not one of them. Which means three million voters, probably, aren’t contacted. And the answered landlines, the whole of the sample that is, belong to and are used by preponderantly older people; who mostly, not always, vote Liberal.

It’s a pack of lies, probably.

Discuss.


I've no doubt newspoll selectively times the running of certain poll questions. I've also no doubt it picks certain regions to run a poll to construct, or exaggerate, a certain outcome. God knows what polls aren't published because they don't fit Murdoch's desired narrative.

Bob's concerns about Newpoll's methodology also appear quite reasonable. With polls seemingly driving the news cycle and no doubt feeding back into the polls, Bob raises some very important questions.

For those interested in the poll that Bob was referring to, this blog post was made on the 26th of Feb.

http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2013/02/26/10774/


Quoting Bob Ellis destroys what little credibility you have left. Even the ALP is embarrassed by his stupidity.

Ultimately Newpoll has to compare its predictions with actual elections. Unfortunately for the rather stupid Bob Ellis, newspoll comes up trumps with a MoE of 1.1%


No, longy, resorting to ad hominem, erodes your credibility. Even Newspoll concedes that changes to telephone usage has brought into question the reliability of landline polls. However, you have made a good point, low margins of error would suggest this behavioural change may not be having the influence we might suspect. Or it might be that several biases are cancelling each other out.

It's also worth checking out if the methodology used at election time is the exact same methodology used throughout the year. Polling companies have a vested interst in getting these ones as accurate as possible, it wouldn't at all surprise me if a more resource intensive methodology was used just before the election.

Outside the possibility of bias in the methodology, there is also the issue of what questions are asked, what areas are sampled, the timing of the polls and the results that are published.

Just one example is the Rudd v Gillard poll. Why just conduct it in Queensland and why not publish the 2PP result.
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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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