perceptions_now
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Australian Politics
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Perth WA
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hawil wrote on Dec 9 th, 2012 at 7:23pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 6 th, 2012 at 7:45pm: hawil wrote on Dec 6 th, 2012 at 7:05pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 5 th, 2012 at 7:35pm: I heard a few comments yesterday, from people "giving advice" to Retirees.
In essence, they were saying that "Cash investments" in "Normal bank accounts" &/or Term Deposits were not particularly good now, that the returns on those sort of investments were set to Decline further AND therefore Retirees should consider the Share Market, which would provide higher dividend returns & shares were likely to rise in value.
Now, everyone has to plot their own course and whilst I agree that the returns on "Cash Investments" will continue their downward trend, I also consider that shares would be an even worse option.
The period between now & the end of 2014 is likely to see the start of a long bear market, which could see both Dividends & share Prices shrivel.
I believe, Share Markets still have a long way to fall, as the eye of the GFC storm is now passing and the GFC winds start to batter the Global Economy again.
In fact, I envisage that Global & Local markets could go down to around 20% of their all time highs, which would see the All Ords possibly Declining to around 1,500, in the years ahead.
In short, there are no guarantees in life and at this point, I am reminded of an old adage - "Investing is now about the return of your money, not the return on your money."
Oh & whilst I remember, Real Estate will also not provide any safe haven in OZ, as it will also reflect what is already the trend in places such as the USA, Japan & Europe. This must be the most bearish assessment of the share market that I have read for a long time; how do most government reduce their debt? By inflation; and what will that do to cash? Just questionsn no predictions. Well Hawil, the entire "Monetary system" is built around growth, of which Price inflation is a primary offshoot. IF I am correct and the experience so far in Japan, the USA & Europe, would suggest I am, THEN there are a number of things that we have taken as "given" that may no longer apply, such as - 1) Economic Growth 2) Monetary Growth 3) Share Market Growth 4) Inflationary Growth 5) Growth - Period - of anything! So, the old days of accumulating Debt, then leaving it sit there for a while and have it eaten away by inflation may also be a thing of the past! Unfortunately, Returns on all sorts of investments are likely to suffer a downward trend, with Shares, R/E, Cash and most other investments going into Decline. Gold & some other P/M's may go against that trend, BUT I wouldn't be in that unless you could have physical possession & that evokes all sorts of security issues, so for most people its probably not a winner. All of which, basically leaves you to choose a best of a bad bunch - GOOD LUCK & WATCH THE DEBT! Read just recently the American printing presses are running hot, printing money, that surely must devalue the cash money.As far as gold is concerned, the graph over the last 20 years is frightening. I once read that the average wage of the American worker is one ounce of gold per week, and currently the average wage of the US worker is nowhere near the cost of an aounce of gold. When the US changed from the gold standard, the above did seem to apply, but I do not consider myself an expert on finance, but I know that the Australian compulsory super is a big fraud, shifting wealth from the poor to the very rich. Yes, BUT particularly with the USA, it is very difficult to guage the timing, because of their role as THE Global Currency & the fact they wield so much influence over Global Economics, because of the sheer size of their Economy!
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