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The surplus that never was (Read 905 times)
hadrian_now
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The surplus that never was
Oct 31st, 2012 at 9:46am
 
I understand that both Swan (he of the 10,000 holes) and Gillard (she of the young & naive) have now both walked away from any claim for a budget surplus this year.
How many times have they put on a floorshow to tell us they were rusted on to their promise of a surplus this year?
Was it 5 times? 6 times?
How many surpluses (or surplii?) have they produced?
Think of a number between 1 and -1.
How many deficits have they produced?
That's an easy one . . .it's the opposite of the number of surpluses.
What have their deficits added up to? Not counting the coming one - which could be, probably will be multi-billion - I think it adds up to over $170 billion.
Who gets to pay that off, together with the accumulated interest, plus the unfunded commonwealth super liability?
The young people of today, the majority of whom seem to think the leftwing of politics has all the answers.
Go figure!
Doesn't matter . . .it's only and all about power.
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progressiveslol
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #1 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 9:48am
 
All the while we have had the most money paid for our exports ever. They have not managed to save 1cent toward debt, but expand the debt in the billions.

Please give us back the liberals lol
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sir prince duke alevine
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #2 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:18am
 
who's walked away from the deficit? What, because the opposition is demanding a guarantee? I'm very happy they won't offer a guarantee - what if there ia an unexpected event - I wouldn't want the government to be held to a guarantee.

What nonsense.  Word play. ANd you guys hate "spin". Grin
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John S
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #3 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:21am
 
Bob Menzies the founder of the Liberal party was Prime Minister from 1949 until 1966 and not once did he have a budget surplus.

Australia never went broke back then so why is there a song and dance now that we have to have a budget surplus all the time.

A government that always have a budget surplus is not a good government it just shows that they are taxing us to much or not supplying the services or infrastructure that the community wants or needs.

As long as the government can service the debit there is no worries
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Andrei.Hicks
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #4 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:29am
 
There should not be a surplus this year or next year!!

The simple economic forecasting and decisions needed to be made to run the country suggest this makes no sense.

From my reading of it, combined with the quick chat I had with one of guys in Australia, is that everything about the budget and the current decisions is driven to delivering this small surplus within a set timeframe before the election.

What idioicy.

Why are they doing that?
Why would you make political based decisions ahead of what is economically right for the country?

Bringing forward contributions for Corporation Tax?
Why? Over the period of time it makes no difference - its purely to bring forward into a set period to help realize a short term surplus. Utterly pointless.

Why cut benefits needed? Single mothers are seeing budget cuts. Why?
Because in the short term there needs to be a small surplus - what an incredibly short sighted view.

There should be no surplus.
The Treasury originally modelled a surplus on forecasted revenue based upon higher ore prices.
Fine - we all do that at work. Now if your revenue drops, obviously you look at the OpEx to see where you can save - I do that all the time, again nothing wrong with it. I usually look at headcount hire, travel and consulting.
But then you look at areas where you have shaved it down - if you still deliver a deficit for a short period of time and forecast to deliver it later - but still keep the fundamentals in place - then fine so be it - there is your answer.

Cut down expenses by all means - but for goodness sake, making political decisions and cutting funding where it should be going is rash and irresponsible.
Making decisions on purely delivering a short term surplus for political reasons is stupid.

The answer is to be a delay out of a surplus based upon falling top-line revenue.
That is perfectly allowable in my book - you can never forecast 100% for price suppression - its a fact of financial modelling risk.

I think the obsessive chase for a small surplus is short sighted and playing politics instead of playing economic management.
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progressiveslol
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #5 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:36am
 
John S wrote on Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:21am:
Bob Menzies the founder of the Liberal party was Prime Minister from 1949 until 1966 and not once did he have a budget surplus.

Australia never went broke back then so why is there a song and dance now that we have to have a budget surplus all the time.

A government that always have a budget surplus is not a good government it just shows that they are taxing us to much or not supplying the services or infrastructure that the community wants or needs.

As long as the government can service the debit there is no worries

It isnt just a budget surplus. It is funding super for all the public servants. How much money have labor put toward that. Nothing. They have actually taken out of the future fund. What else is not on the budget. The NBN for one. That monster will never be fully costed while labor is in office.
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Shane B
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #6 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:57am
 
Federal Labor hasn't produced a surplus in over two decades, not expecting one anytime soon.
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Julia Gillard - twice selected, never elected.

We're still paying for the Whitlam Government.
 
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perceptions_now
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #7 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:44am
 
As I have said previously, Debt is a 2 part issue,  Expenditure is 1 & Revenue is another!

In order to run an annual Deficit & accrue Debt, Expenditure needs to exceed Revenue.

However, Debt in itself is NOT inherently bad and most countries, like individuals & Businesses, will acquire Debt at various points in the Economic cycle. The "trick", to use a "global warming phrase", is to use Debt wisely and run at a Debt which is affordable, at that period in the Economic cycle.

In other words, when the Economic cycle is positive and is likely to remain so for some time, then Debt can be a useful way to expand the local economy, by putting the Debt to good use, in ways that will promote Economic activity & Productivity, particularly from the longer term perspective.

Equally, Debt incurred during the above phase, should be reduced to manageable levels, before the Economic cycle starts to head South.

Personally, I would suggest a net Debt to GDP ratio of something between 5-25%, depending on the point of the Economic cycle was at the time.

Ok, back to Expenditure & Revenue. It is not merely a matter of Spending less, in order to convert a Deficit into a Surplus and thereby getting rid of Debt!

Why, Well, for all Actions & Inactions, there are Consequences. IF Spending is reduced, it may also reduce Productivity & also Revenue, thus possibly increasing the Deficit/Debt, instead of lowering the Debt.

A great deal of care and attention needs to go into what Spending is to be cut, when it will be cut (at what point in the Economic cycle) & how it will be done, in order to keep Productivity & Revenue, as high as possible.

Serious consideration also needs to be given to the Revenue side, particularly as the Tax system is inherently too high on basic rates and too low on real Revenue, as the Deduction & avoidance industry allows far too much leeway, for both Business & individuals.

In fact, the whole tax system needs to be revamped, to lower tax rates & eradicate the avoidance industry and all sectors need to bear their fair share!


To close, the Europeans & the USA have real problems with Debt upwards of 80% of GDP and I do not foresee any way they will recover from their current position, without one hell of an Economic downturn.

To give an analogy, most people say, Credit Cards are terrible.
However, I use Credit Cards for nearly everything, but then I pay it off (in full) each month.
I haven't paid a cent in interest for a long, long time & the Credit Card company even pays me, via their "rewards programs", for using their money.
On top of that, I earn extra interest by keeping my money, in my bank accounts, for a longer period.

My point? Well, Debt isn't just Debt, there is good Debt & bad Debt!

PS - I have heard several commentators remark that the physical Damage & lost Business profits, caused by hurricane Sandy (in the USA) may not be too bad, as those loses may be offset by the spending on Recovery efforts.
What these commentators failed to do, was go to the next step, by including in their calculations the effects of the additional Debt that will inevitably be acquired during the recovery phase.
Should the US want some ideas on that situation, perhaps they can have a chat to Queensland & OZ Federal Politicians, who have already had some experience in those issues, following cyclone Yasi.

As I said earlier, for all Actions & Inactions, there are Consequences.
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hadrian_now
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #8 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 1:44pm
 
You're missing the main point perceptions.
The previous govt paid off debt. The one before it had accumulated the debt which had to be paid off, like your credit card. The present govt is off again accumulating an even higher level of debt. Is there a pattern here?
Unlike your credit card, for which you are responsible, the presently accumulating debt will have to be paid off over a long time, maybe more than a decade, probably much more if the past is any indication.
Future govts will not be personally responsible for that, it will be paid off largely by kids growing up now who in those years will be raising young families.
They won't even know about outdoor learning centres, $900 cheques (which by the way the Treasury has now concluded contributed little stimulation to the economy), or any of the other wasteful spending. All they will know is higher taxes and reduced govt services.
Wayne Swan will just be the faint trace of a bad smell lingering around the halls of parliament.
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cods
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #9 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 1:56pm
 
John S wrote on Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:21am:
Bob Menzies the founder of the Liberal party was Prime Minister from 1949 until 1966 and not once did he have a budget surplus.

Australia never went broke back then so why is there a song and dance now that we have to have a budget surplus all the time.

A government that always have a budget surplus is not a good government it just shows that they are taxing us to much or not supplying the services or infrastructure that the community wants or needs.

As long as the government can service the debit there is no worries




we have had the MINING BOOM  I am sure you remember the one that Howard and Costello had that got them out off all sorts of trouble so when Costello had a surplus..it was thanks to China..


well guess what?????.. THE MINING BOOM NEVER WENT ANYWHERE IN FACT IT INCREASED 3 FOLD.

not only that the price also went up and up and up...


which means govts reap more and more and more..


AND GUESS WHAT VALLEYBOY

IT ISNT THE LIBS CALLING FOR A SURPLUS..


HAVE YOU FORGOTTEN THIS WAS WAYNIES PROMISE AT THE LAST BUDGET AND THE BUDGET BEFORE THAT

I will have a surplus.... over and over.... followed by gillard claiming they will have a surplus..


so dont go twisting this to be a Lib promise because it ain t and never was..


as for servicing this debt.......

with phony figures we can do anything I suppose.
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cods
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #10 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 1:58pm
 
Shane B wrote on Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:57am:
Federal Labor hasn't produced a surplus in over two decades, not expecting one anytime soon.




with the way the rest of the world is....

why carry on ab out a surplus in the first place. dont forget this is waynes dream...along with gillard......... no one elses...

I would rather we had NO DEBT at a time like this.
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adelcrow
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #11 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 2:15pm
 
Interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal govt and only a Liberal Govt can produce a surplus.
Just two of phony tonys lies  Cheesy
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Doctor Jolly
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #12 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 3:07pm
 


Premier for doom and gloom, Barry OFarrell has hit a crisis of credibility for talking down the NSW economy, when his much anticipated deficit of $300m, will actually be a surplus of $600m.   A $1billion dollar error.

While this may seem as good luck to some, Barry is furious as it undermines his plans to do nothing for 3 years, and also undermines his reasons for selling of public assets.   

He's reported to be furious.
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adelcrow
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #13 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 3:19pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Oct 31st, 2012 at 3:07pm:
Premier for doom and gloom, Barry OFarrell has hit a crisis of credibility for talking down the NSW economy, when his much anticipated deficit of $300m, will actually be a surplus of $600m.   A $1billion dollar error.

While this may seem as good luck to some, Barry is furious as it undermines his plans to do nothing for 3 years, and also undermines his reasons for selling of public assets.   

He's reported to be furious.


Tax cuts for everyone in NSW..woo hoo  Cheesy
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Go the Bunnies
 
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bambu
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Re: The surplus that never was
Reply #14 - Oct 31st, 2012 at 5:03pm
 
hadrian_now wrote on Oct 31st, 2012 at 9:46am:
I understand that both Swan (he of the 10,000 holes) and Gillard (she of the young & naive) have now both walked away from any claim for a budget surplus this year.
How many times have they put on a floorshow to tell us they were rusted on to their promise of a surplus this year?
Was it 5 times? 6 times?
How many surpluses (or surplii?) have they produced?
Think of a number between 1 and -1.
How many deficits have they produced?
That's an easy one . . .it's the opposite of the number of surpluses.
What have their deficits added up to? Not counting the coming one - which could be, probably will be multi-billion - I think it adds up to over $170 billion.
Who gets to pay that off, together with the accumulated interest, plus the unfunded commonwealth super liability?

The young people of today, the majority of whom seem to think the leftwing of politics has all the answers.


And that will be the justice! Smiley

Pay they will too, bigtime.
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