Australian Politics Forum - The IPCC may be backing down

Shane B

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The IPCC may be backing down
Sep 20^th, 2012 at 11:55pm

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted in its Third Assessment Report (2003) with regard to global warming:

“Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”.

The definition in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007) was:

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

The IPCC's position has apparently now shifted. A draft of the 2012 Fifth Assessment Report contains the following definition:

“Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.”

What's going on here? First, the IPCC could be preparing an exit strategy from the AGW hypothesis peddled in its 1990 First Assessment Report. Second, the IPCC is likely to be making a post hoc rationalisation to make their previous position more tenable, or at least less untenable.

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Julia Gillard - twice selected, never elected.

We're still paying for the Whitlam Government.

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Upton Sinclair

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Re: The IPCC may be backing down
Reply #1 - Sep 21^st, 2012 at 9:38pm

Shane B wrote on Sep 20^th, 2012 at 11:55pm:

What's going on here?

What's going on here is that you don't understand the basic facts behind the science you confidently deny. Climate can definitely be caused by internal forcings, in this case however it is being caused by anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere and land use.

To put your quote into its full context:

Quote:

Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. In various chapters in this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used.

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. See also Climate variability; Detection and Attribution.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/annex1sglossary-a-d.html

Take not of the source too, its AR4 (2007) not AR5 (2012). So nothing has changed whatsoever.

Were you half the 'sceptic' you claim to be you might have taken two minutes and fact checked this little factoid that you've clearly read on some fringe conspiracy blog for yourself before deciding to share it with the world and saved yourself from being made to look such a twit in public Grin

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"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
--Tony Abbott

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Big Donger Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 102781	Re: The IPCC may be backing down Reply #2 - Sep 21^st, 2012 at 11:45pm Thoughts?
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: The IPCC may be backing down Reply #3 - Sep 22^nd, 2012 at 4:17pm Did you deliberately quote out of context, Shane, or were you fooled again?
Back to top	Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings "What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions." IP Logged

Upton Sinclair Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 496	Re: The IPCC may be backing down Reply #4 - Sep 22^nd, 2012 at 4:28pm Yeah Shane. What's the deal? Where's your source, I'd like to know whether you were being fooled or being dishonest.
Back to top	"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime," --Tony Abbott IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: The IPCC may be backing down Reply #5 - Sep 25^th, 2012 at 8:41pm Upton Sinclair wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2012 at 4:28pm: Yeah Shane. What's the deal? Where's your source, I'd like to know whether you were being fooled or being dishonest. Give the guy a break: obviously daddy made him do it for the crack!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged

rabbitoh07

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Re: The IPCC may be backing down
Reply #6 - Oct 8^th, 2012 at 6:16pm

Shane B wrote on Sep 20^th, 2012 at 11:55pm:

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted in its Third Assessment Report (2003) with regard to global warming:

“Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”.

The definition in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007) was:

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

The IPCC's position has apparently now shifted. A draft of the 2012 Fifth Assessment Report contains the following definition:

“Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.”

What's going on here? First, the IPCC could be preparing an exit strategy from the AGW hypothesis peddled in its 1990 First Assessment Report. Second, the IPCC is likely to be making a post hoc rationalisation to make their previous position more tenable, or at least less untenable.

Good to see you have been exposed on this silly little attempt at deception. Did you make that lie up yourself? Or did you just mindlessly copy it from Bolt or someone?

I suspect you will not come back to this thread to answer - will you.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: The IPCC may be backing down Reply #7 - Oct 10^th, 2012 at 9:29pm Very poor form, Shane.
Back to top	Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings "What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions." IP Logged