Australian Politics Forum - Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!

Upton Sinclair

Senior Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 496

Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Sep 5^th, 2012 at 7:14pm

Clearly, this means that the Greens are on an unstoppable trajectory and will soon have a majority in their own right. Right? I mean, from what I've learned on this forum a single poll result determines the fate of a party and that if you take an arbitrary polling figure, calculate any shift in that figure and calculate it as a percentage of the total then you can make it look like the party is shifting it's support by monumental margins. Thanks Maqqa. Thanks Gold_Medal or LongWeekend, or whatever your name really is, YaBB style statistics are FUN!!! Cheesy

Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 41.5% (down 2.5%) still well ahead of the ALP 34.5% (unchanged). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 11.5% (up 1.5%) and Independents/ Others 12.5% (up 1%).

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4816/

Back to top

« Last Edit: Sep 5^th, 2012 at 7:41pm by Upton Sinclair »

"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
--Tony Abbott

IP Logged

Gist Gold Member Offline I am not a sock, I am a human being! Posts: 5476	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #1 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:25pm I don't think longloser and his friend matty (or whatever they are calling themselves today) are listening. I guess they're beside themselves at the nosedive trajectory that their pinup boy is on. Too dejected to talk. Yep, their arse is grass as your post here shows.
Back to top	"When our military goes to war it should be for purposes and objectives clearly in Australia’s interests, not merely because the Americans want some company" - Malcolm Fraser (2012 Whitlam Oration) IP Logged

rules_of_the_game New Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24 Gender:	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #2 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy.
Back to top	IP Logged

Armchair_Politician Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30225 Gender:	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #3 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:45pm rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm: Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy. Ditto - I don't even bother looking at Morgan polls anymore.
Back to top	IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded

Gold Member

Offline

MediocrityNET: because
people died for this!

Posts: 26966

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #4 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:52pm

Gist wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:25pm:

I don't think longloser and his friend matty (or whatever they are calling themselves today) are listening. I guess they're beside themselves at the nosedive trajectory that their pinup boy is on. Too dejected to talk.

Yep, their arse is grass as your post here shows.

The Greens have actually changed the world!

I'm not kidding!!

It's called the power of NOW and Kevin Rudd recognised they had it : that is why he stole their 60% aspirational target for 2050 and they had to up it to 80% to keep the moral upper hand!!

EFFICIENCY BREEDS SUCCESS:

THEREFORE WE ARE ALL GREENIES WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE!!!

For showing us the light the punters will reward them with many many years of growth!!

Wink

Back to top

*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

IP Logged

rules_of_the_game

New Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 24
Gender: male

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #5 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:09pm

Armchair_Politician wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:45pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm:

Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy.

Ditto - I don't even bother looking at Morgan polls anymore.

when every other poll has consistency in both trend and numbers then why would you believe Morgan which has been consistently wrong by a substantial margin?

Answer: because you are a True Believer. Ironically though, that belief isnt in facts!

Back to top

IP Logged

Upton Sinclair

Senior Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 496

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #6 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:15pm

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:09pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:45pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm:

Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy.

Ditto - I don't even bother looking at Morgan polls anymore.

when every other poll has consistency in both trend

Oh really?! Please, plot a trend for us using both or either of the data. Let's deal in facts, not rhetoric, let them speak for themselves

Back to top

"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
--Tony Abbott

IP Logged

rules_of_the_game

New Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 24
Gender: male

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #7 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:24pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:15pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:09pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:45pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm:

Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy.

Ditto - I don't even bother looking at Morgan polls anymore.

when every other poll has consistency in both trend

Oh really?! Please, plot a trend for us using both or either of the data. Let's deal in facts, not rhetoric, let them speak for themselves

If you have any experience or knowledge of professional polling then you will know that Newspoll and Galaxy are considered the gold-standard in accuracy with a historical margin of error of around 1% - well inside the traditional 3% for these tpyes of polls. That gives these polls a great deal of weight in decision making. Morgan however, is not very well regarded at all. Its core business is not political polls, which is good, since they are not very good. Take the last one for a perfect example. Not only are the absolute polls numbers at significant variance from Newspoll but are also trending in the opposite direction. Soon, Galaxy will also poll and the results will typically mirror that of Newspoll - just as it usually does.

Morgan political polls suffer from significant inaccuracy. You can argue about it all you like but their methodology is quite different to the others as our their results. The trouble is, newspoll and galaxy are the ones that are correct - not Morgan.

Back to top

IP Logged

MOTR

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 6646

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #8 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 5:44am

Gary Morgan argues otherwise. Superficially it looks like their recent results are more accurate than Newspoll in predicting the voting results for all parties.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4784/

Anyway, Upton is right. Let's take a step back and look at the trend.

Quote:

2007 Federal Election

Average error on major parties: Morgan Poll — 0.35%; Newspoll — 0.50%; Galaxy Research — 0.65%; ACNielsen — 3.3%.

Average error on all parties: Morgan Poll — 0.52%; Galaxy Research — 0.64%; Newspoll — 0.9%; ACNielsen — 1.92%.

Average error on 2PP vote: Newspoll — 0.7%; Galaxy Research: 0.7%; Morgan Poll — 0.8%; ACNielsen — 4.3%.

At the 2010 Federal Election (August 21, 2010) the 7News Morgan Poll once again conducted our final poll on Friday evening, August 20, 2010. The 7News Morgan Poll was the most accurate major poll for predicting the voting results for all parties (ALP, L-NP, Greens, Ind./Others) and just behind Newspoll for predicting the voting results for the major parties (ALP & L-NP).

2010 Federal Election

Average error on major parties: Newspoll — 1.0%; 7News Morgan Poll — 1.05%; Galaxy Research — 1.30%; Nielsen — 1.55%.

Average error on all parties: 7News Morgan Poll — 0.7%; Newspoll — 1.05%; Nielsen — 1.1%; Galaxy Research — 1.3%.

Average error on 2PP vote: Newspoll — 0.1%; 7News Morgan Poll — 0.9%; Galaxy Research — 1.9%; Nielsen — 1.9%.

These results clearly show that any assertion that the Morgan Poll is “not accurate” has no basis in regards to recent Federal Elections. In fact, at the most recent Federal Election the 7News Morgan Poll was the first poll to predict Australia’s first ‘Hung Parliament’ since the 1940s — a week before the Federal Election, and this was backed up by the final Morgan Poll conducted on the eve of the Federal Election.

Back to top

« Last Edit: Sep 6^th, 2012 at 5:59am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

IP Logged

Armchair_Politician

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30225
Gender: male

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #9 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 7:24am

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:09pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:45pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm:

Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy.

Ditto - I don't even bother looking at Morgan polls anymore.

when every other poll has consistency in both trend and numbers then why would you believe Morgan which has been consistently wrong by a substantial margin?

Answer: because you are a True Believer. Ironically though, that belief isnt in facts!

When you compare Newspoll and Galaxy with Morgan just prior to an election with what the actual election result was, more often than not the polling by Newspoll and Galaxy pretty accurately reflects the result of the election. Morgan almost always gets it wrong. What I believe has nothing to do with this. Newspoll and Galaxy are just far more accurate barometers of what the electorate is thinking/feeling.

Back to top

IP Logged

imcrookonit Ex Member	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #10 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 7:31am What a wonderful day it is today.
Back to top	IP Logged

cods Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 88048	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #11 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 7:34am how can that be? only a week ago they had dropped to 8%..is some fudging going on??? never mind it keep those in a minority happy for a little while.
Back to top	IP Logged

Gist

Gold Member

Offline

I am not a sock, I am
a human being!

Posts: 5476

Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!!
Reply #12 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 8:30am

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:09pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:45pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:42pm:

Morgan polls are notoriously inaccurate while Newspoll and Galaxy are renowned for their accuracy.

Ditto - I don't even bother looking at Morgan polls anymore.

when every other poll has consistency in both trend and numbers then why would you believe Morgan which has been consistently wrong by a substantial margin?

Answer: because you are a True Believer. Ironically though, that belief isnt in facts!

longidiot I've told you before that you don't have a clue what you mean by "accuracy". You best leave that stuff to people with brains larger than a grapeseed.

Back to top

"When our military goes to war it should be for purposes and objectives clearly in Australia’s interests, not merely because the Americans want some company" - Malcolm Fraser (2012 Whitlam Oration)

IP Logged

Maqqa Gold Member Offline 14% - that low?! Posts: 16000	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #13 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 9:26am cods wrote on Sep 6^th, 2012 at 7:34am: how can that be? only a week ago they had dropped to 8%..is some fudging going on??? never mind it keep those in a minority happy for a little while. Its like their IQ - a few points here and there makes a HUGE difference
Back to top	Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number IP Logged

BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Greens vote SOARS by 20% in the polls!!!!! Reply #14 - Sep 6^th, 2012 at 5:41pm We have numbers, Here: Coalition $1.18, Labor $4.50 http://centrebet.com/#Sports/Event/2062830
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged