Australian Politics Forum - Greens and the balance of power.

Armchair_Politician

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #30 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 7:15am

gold_medal wrote on Sep 4^th, 2012 at 5:35pm:

Shane B wrote on Sep 4^th, 2012 at 5:27pm:

Excellent post gold_medal.

thanks. the real test is the next few polls to see if the greens are really this low or it was an outlier. And if they are dropping still or this is the low point. if they get to 6% then their days with the balance of power are numbered. they might not win a single senate vacancy at the next election or perhaps just in Tas.

I reckon that when the next electricity bills come in, we'll see another big drop in support for both Labor and the Greens. The last electricity bill only included a small portion of time with the carbon dioxide tax. Wait for the next bill when it includes the entire duration with the carbon dioxide tax!

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Upton Sinclair

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #31 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 6:53pm

gold_medal wrote on Sep 4^th, 2012 at 10:26pm:

they have now fallen significantly in the last month. its called a TREND.

No, it called a VARIATION.

Quote:

You are making a wanker of yourself by trying to just ignore this 8% result. it is that kind of delusion which makes you look silly.

Do you always resort to abuse when losing an argument? You must be a real hoot at dinner parties.

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rules_of_the_game

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #32 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:44pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 6:53pm:

gold_medal wrote on Sep 4^th, 2012 at 10:26pm:

they have now fallen significantly in the last month. its called a TREND.

No, it called a VARIATION.

Quote:

You are making a wanker of yourself by trying to just ignore this 8% result. it is that kind of delusion which makes you look silly.

Do you always resort to abuse when losing an argument? You must be a real hoot at dinner parties.

variation vs trend. Three drops in a row is statistically speaking, a trend.

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Upton Sinclair

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #33 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:52pm

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:44pm:

Three drops in a row is statistically speaking, a trend.

Yes, they're trending at about 11%, even when you take into account the current poll. Not that different to where they polled in the 2010 election, hence the contention of the OP that this will put their BOP at risk is fundamentally flawed and we can dismiss the conclusion he has reached on the basis of this 8% poll.

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"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
--Tony Abbott

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Upton Sinclair Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 496	Re: Greens and the balance of power. Reply #34 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:54pm Prevailing wrote on Sep 4^th, 2012 at 11:10pm: Global warming zealots come across as very very stupid on TV That's funny because you come across very very stupid on the internet. How's the lawsuits coming along, you caped constitutional crusader you?
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #35 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:58pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 6:53pm:

gold_medal wrote on Sep 4^th, 2012 at 10:26pm:

they have now fallen significantly in the last month. its called a TREND.

No, it called a VARIATION.

Quote:

You are making a wanker of yourself by trying to just ignore this 8% result. it is that kind of delusion which makes you look silly.

Do you always resort to abuse when losing an argument? You must be a real hoot at dinner parties.

You're talking to a crack smoker mate: they eat prawns and crayfish over lunch with dad and go home to smoke crack and recite what daddy told em all day to their room-mate and in and out motor-bike riding drug dealer!!

They don't do dinner parties!!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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rules_of_the_game

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #36 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:16pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:52pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 8:44pm:

Three drops in a row is statistically speaking, a trend.

Yes, they're trending at about 11%, even when you take into account the current poll. Not that different to where they polled in the 2010 election, hence the contention of the OP that this will put their BOP at risk is fundamentally flawed and we can dismiss the conclusion he has reached on the basis of this 8% poll.

You cannot safely conclude the 11% 'trend' because for one thing, trends dont have numbers associated with them (absolute values); they have rates of change and direction (vector quantities) associated with them instead. The actual trend based on the last 3 polls has been a consistent decline in Green polling. Given the somewhat large drop recently, the next poll (or other polls by other groups) would be needed to validate the extent of the drop, but not that there is a drop itself. And large drops and rises are not inconsistent with recent political history. Labors 5% rise in one poll cycle was confirmed by subsequent polls so why should that not also apply to the Greens? They are not immune from political trends any more than any other party.

The OP was an opinion piece that was based on the assumption that the 8% figure was valid and constituted part of a continuing trend. In fact it even said so. To say that is not possible is not a credible option. Trend analysis clearly indicates it is a quite credible possible outcome.

That is the nature of opinion peices. It takes todays facts and trends and tries to extrapolate them into the future. Not liking the result doesnt invalidate any analysis or experiment. Thats medieval thinking.

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Upton Sinclair

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #37 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:31pm

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:16pm:

You cannot safely conclude the 11% 'trend' because for one thing, trends dont have numbers associated with them (absolute values); they have rates of change and direction (vector quantities) associated with them instead. The actual trend based on the last 3 polls has been a consistent decline in Green polling. Given the somewhat large drop recently, the next poll (or other polls by other groups) would be needed to validate the extent of the drop, but not that there is a drop itself. And large drops and rises are not inconsistent with recent political history. Labors 5% rise in one poll cycle was confirmed by subsequent polls so why should that not also apply to the Greens? They are not immune from political trends any more than any other party.

The OP was an opinion piece that was based on the assumption that the 8% figure was valid and constituted part of a continuing trend. In fact it even said so. To say that is not possible is not a credible option. Trend analysis clearly indicates it is a quite credible possible outcome.

That is the nature of opinion peices. It takes todays facts and trends and tries to extrapolate them into the future. Not liking the result doesnt invalidate any analysis or experiment. Thats medieval thinking.

OK. First things first. Let me qualify the following statement by pointing out that I'm drunk right now and in no position to much in the way of a deeply thought out argument either way. That being said, excellent post. The argument you've put forward far exceeds anything I've seen in the short time I've spent in this cesspool of a forum. When it comes to your statistically based conclusions, I largely agree as far as I can tell. I disagree with your conclusion of the value of opinion like that expressed in the OP, well, I disagree but CBF'd getting into it just now. That's neither her nor there though, you make a good argument and that's something I respect, even if I do politely disagree.

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"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
--Tony Abbott

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rules_of_the_game

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #38 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:38pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:31pm:

rules_of_the_game wrote on Sep 5^th, 2012 at 9:16pm:

You cannot safely conclude the 11% 'trend' because for one thing, trends dont have numbers associated with them (absolute values); they have rates of change and direction (vector quantities) associated with them instead. The actual trend based on the last 3 polls has been a consistent decline in Green polling. Given the somewhat large drop recently, the next poll (or other polls by other groups) would be needed to validate the extent of the drop, but not that there is a drop itself. And large drops and rises are not inconsistent with recent political history. Labors 5% rise in one poll cycle was confirmed by subsequent polls so why should that not also apply to the Greens? They are not immune from political trends any more than any other party.

The OP was an opinion piece that was based on the assumption that the 8% figure was valid and constituted part of a continuing trend. In fact it even said so. To say that is not possible is not a credible option. Trend analysis clearly indicates it is a quite credible possible outcome.

That is the nature of opinion peices. It takes todays facts and trends and tries to extrapolate them into the future. Not liking the result doesnt invalidate any analysis or experiment. Thats medieval thinking.

OK. First things first. Let me qualify the following statement by pointing out that I'm drunk right now and in no position to much in the way of a deeply thought out argument either way. That being said, excellent post. The argument you've put forward far exceeds anything I've seen in the short time I've spent in this cesspool of a forum. When it comes to your statistically based conclusions, I largely agree as far as I can tell. I disagree with your conclusion of the value of opinion like that expressed in the OP, well, I disagree but CBF'd getting into it just now. That's neither her nor there though, you make a good argument and that's something I respect, even if I do politely disagree.

That comment alone differentiates you from the vast majority of posters on this and a variety of other cesspool forums around. By and large, the inhabitants of these types of places lack intelligence, education, relationships and any experience whatsoever in real life. And of course how many have relationships? not many. There are some that are actually real, well-rounded, intelligent thinking people.

around 1% atually.

And yes, I am using that '1%' in all of its current meaning.

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Prevailing

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Re: Greens and the balance of power.
Reply #39 - Sep 5^th, 2012 at 10:39pm

The problem with the communist elites in Australia is that they are perpetrators of violence and this they cannot help doing because they received no structure, discipline or role modeling in their childhood. They have been earmarked for success by the social engineers not because of their good behavior but because of their violent, unruly behavior, the way they look or some sporting prowess. Through liberalism we have bred a generation of sociopaths with no empathy or compassion for the victims they create in the west. And these elites...we see them on our TV every day are committed to repressing the victims of their terror, to scapegoating them and continuing the perpetrators of violence through the state and other means. The irony is that it is this very lack of parental family structure and discipline that leads to bullying and the violence we see in the world perpetrated by people like Julia Gillard...Julia Gillard is acting out like any dictator, projecting herself as the authority figure she never had as a child in the most inappropriate of manner. She feigns compassion for specific causes to legitimize her conscience but people like this are perpetrators and not spreaders of civilized behavior. In Gillards world and the socio economic elites world their are no rules and laws, they do what they like...form their own committees and dictate power because it is to power they are driven this 1%...Something fixed so simply with a smack on the bottom grows to become a tyrant and a dictator if unchecked... Cool

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I condemn Male Violence Against Women
The Government Supports Gynocide
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