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Medieval Warm Period (Read 4449 times)
progressiveslol
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #15 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 7:08pm
 
MWP fact. Just cause some Uptony loon can type with no links, and does not even type about MWP, does not make the MWP go away.
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #16 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 7:10pm
 
Lib voters pimp thier kids: fact!!
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Upton Sinclair
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #17 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 7:48pm
 
progressiveslol wrote on Jul 31st, 2012 at 7:08pm:
MWP fact. Just cause some Uptony loon can type with no links, and does not even type about MWP, does not make the MWP go away.


Strawman - the argument isn't about whether the MWP is 'real' or not, it's "1) Was the Medieval Warm Period global? 2) Was it warmer than today? 3) And what does this all mean anyway?". The answers, as they stand, is that the MWP was indeed real, that it appears to have been largely regional, although there is still some dispute as to its extend, and that it was most definitely not warmer than today. As for significance, well, it's interesting and it certainly adds to our understanding of the dynamics driving the climate system but it doesn't in any way change in the slightest what we know about the current observed warming.

As for links; that was an oversight. All the papers can be found here:

http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/

Compiled for Skeptical Science here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/new_research_special_paleoclimate.html
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progressiveslol
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #18 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 8:26pm
 
Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 31st, 2012 at 7:48pm:
progressiveslol wrote on Jul 31st, 2012 at 7:08pm:
MWP fact. Just cause some Uptony loon can type with no links, and does not even type about MWP, does not make the MWP go away.


Strawman - the argument isn't about whether the MWP is 'real' or not, it's "1) Was the Medieval Warm Period global? 2) Was it warmer than today? 3) And what does this all mean anyway?". The answers, as they stand, is that the MWP was indeed real, that it appears to have been largely regional, although there is still some dispute as to its extend, and that it was most definitely not warmer than today. As for significance, well, it's interesting and it certainly adds to our understanding of the dynamics driving the climate system but it doesn't in any way change in the slightest what we know about the current observed warming.

As for links; that was an oversight. All the papers can be found here:

http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/

Compiled for Skeptical Science here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/new_research_special_paleoclimate.html


...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/04/jo-nova-finds-the-medieval-warm-period/


http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php

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Upton Sinclair
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #19 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 8:52pm
 
progressiveslol wrote on Jul 31st, 2012 at 8:26pm:


Dodge noted. You clearly couldn't answer the questions.

I do have to point out though that, despite the way Jo Nova has creatively shifted the time-set, the Lohele 2008 data only goes up to 1935 -  what you might describe as 'hiding the incline'. This is what it really looks like, compared to multiple other reconstructions, with the instrumental record added to the end:

Quote:
So who's right?  Does Ljungqvist confirm the results of Mann (2008) and Moberg (2005)?  Or do his results agree with Loehle and McCulloch (2008)?  Figure 2 provides a comparison of them all, starting in AD 500 (the earliest date in Mann 2008's global reconstruction), with the northern hemisphere instrumental record shown for comparison.


http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/recon_lj_with_others.png
Figure 2.  Comparison of northern hemisphere and global temperature reconstructions.  Northern hemisphere instrumental temperature records shown for comparison (CRUTEM land only, and HADCRUT land/ocean).

It's worth noting that all the reconstructions show the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and 20th-century warming (though Loehle 2008 only runs through 1935). 

Loehle's Medieval Warm Period is both warmer and earlier than the rest (and, as noted above, Loehle recognizes that his early peak circa AD 850 is probably incorrect).  Loehle also shows a much colder Little Ice Age.  All of the reconstructions diverge more in the period before AD 800, with Moberg being the coolest, Loehle the warmest, and Mann and Ljungqvist being in the middle of the pack.

When comparing Ljungqvist 2010 to Loehle 2008, it's important to remember that Ljungqvist's reconstruction is for the mid- and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere only, while Loehle's was supposed to be global.  In this light, the presence of relatively extreme temperatures in Loehle's reconstruction during both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age ought to be viewed somewhat skeptically.  Whether or not these episodes were truly "global", they were certainly strongest in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the North Atlantic region. Ljungqvist 2010 suggests that his own reconstruction may have underestimated the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere cooling during the Little Ice Age, but Loehle's still appears to be an outlier if it is considered as a global reconstruction.

Finally, it's worth noting that comparison to the instrumental record suggests that modern temperatures are significantly warmer than those during the height of the Medieval Warm Period.  Additional projected 21st Century warming will produce a climate unlike anything experienced in the history of human civilization.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=394
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muso
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #20 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 8:59pm
 
I remember reading a paper in New Scientist a couple of years ago that showed that the MWP was a regional phenomenon caused by a strong prolonged La Nino event.  It was almost certainly a regional phenomenon only.
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...
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chicken_lipsforme
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #21 - Jul 31st, 2012 at 10:30pm
 
Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 30th, 2012 at 10:15pm:
Sure. Why not? Much easier to deny science than to attempt to understand it.


A guess made by a scientist is still a guess no matter who makes it eh.
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Upton Sinclair
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Re: Medieval Warm Period
Reply #22 - Aug 1st, 2012 at 11:25pm
 
chicken_lipsforme wrote on Jul 31st, 2012 at 10:30pm:
Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 30th, 2012 at 10:15pm:
Sure. Why not? Much easier to deny science than to attempt to understand it.


A guess made by a scientist is still a guess no matter who makes it eh.


Depends how you define "guess", I guess. If you define it as "everything I don't understand that seems to conflict with my political ideology", then sure. If, however, you make nuanced distinctions between Mr Joe Average taking a drunken stab in the dark at something and a statistical probability assigned to an outcome based solely on an empirical process of testing and measuring observations then a "guess", made by a scientist adhering to the rigours of the scientific method, is most definitely is not just a guess.

I can only imaging what camp your learned self must fall into Grin
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"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
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