Australian Politics Forum - Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.

BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse. Reply #15 - May 16^th, 2012 at 6:46pm freediver wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:40pm: That's because they are climate models, not weather models. lONGY KNOWS THAT, HE IS JUST HOPING YOU WILL LET HIM STICK HIS HAND DOWN YOUR PANTS FOR AWHILE BUT YOU RUINED IT! HE IS SO SAD NOW- YOU DON'T GET ANY CRACK SORRY!!
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longweekend58

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Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.
Reply #16 - May 16^th, 2012 at 6:54pm

freediver wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:40pm:

That's because they are climate models, not weather models.

which is what i was referring to - CLIMATE models. does it help if i replace the phrase 'last years CLIMATE"?

You are clever enough to know what I am referring to. The test of any model is to retrofit it onto existing historical data and compare the fit. Climate models routinely fail this by huge margins. Perhpas that explains why none of these models' predictions ever comes to pass

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Dooley

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Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.
Reply #17 - May 16^th, 2012 at 8:22pm

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:54pm:

freediver wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:40pm:

That's because they are climate models, not weather models.

which is what i was referring to - CLIMATE models. does it help if i replace the phrase 'last years CLIMATE"?

You are clever enough to know what I am referring to. The test of any model is to retrofit it onto existing historical data and compare the fit. Climate models routinely fail this by huge margins. Perhpas that explains why none of these models' predictions ever comes to pass

bottles, glass. glass, bottles. to a decrepit ol fart like you with a large dose of parnoid schizopheria bangin around in the old maggot pile, you'd bother with caring what you've got to say or the distinctions you can or can't make......

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse. Reply #18 - May 16^th, 2012 at 8:29pm longy is of the ilk that the next generations pants are for putting your hand down!!!
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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 53201 At my desk.	Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse. Reply #19 - May 16^th, 2012 at 9:02pm Can we try debating the topic for a change, not each other?
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Dooley Senior Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 345	Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse. Reply #20 - May 16^th, 2012 at 9:14pm I'll be happy to oblige on that measure Freediver (with some reservations). It's just I got the impression from blowhard58 that taking potshot snips was a obligation you confer without regard to the topic at hand....
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MOTR

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Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.
Reply #21 - May 17^th, 2012 at 3:31am

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:42pm:

FriYAY wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:05pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 1:55pm:

And so it beings.

We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common.

To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall. Its been happening every time we have El Nino. More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics.

So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900?

The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those?

What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those?

i WONDER IF THEY WERE EL NINO YEARS? Roll Eyes

La Nina years. El Nino years bring the cold waters and droughts.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR

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Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.
Reply #22 - May 17^th, 2012 at 4:12am

La Nina years bring floods. Always have, always will. A warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water vapour. The best analogy I've heard is it's a bit like injecting a baseball batter with steroids. Before the steroids the home runs came but they weren't hit as far and they didn't come as frequently. The steroids increase the number of home runs but which home runs do we attribute to the steroids and which ones do we attribute to the natural talents of the hitter.

During the El Nino years the warmer atmosphere more rapidly dries out the land, reducing run off when it does rain and threatening our water supplies. This long term drying trend has already been observed in Australia and is why Prof. Flannery advocated desal plants. While floods will sometimes mask it, the risks associated with this long term trend are no less real.

Get used to more floods and water shortages, as absurd as that may superficially sound.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 53201 At my desk.	Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse. Reply #23 - May 17^th, 2012 at 8:29am I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it.
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MOTR

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Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.
Reply #24 - May 17^th, 2012 at 7:14pm

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 8:29am:

I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it.

Agreed, La Nina and El Nino events manifest themselves in the form of sea surface temperatures. The point I was trying to make is that a La Nina today will bring more rain than in the past because the warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water than in the past. And the droughts brought about by an El Nino will be more intense because the warmer atmosphere drys out the soil at a faster rate.

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« Last Edit: May 18^th, 2012 at 7:14am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse. Reply #25 - May 18^th, 2012 at 5:41pm freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 8:29am: I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it. Surely the two combine as the one and the same phenomena!
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Ocean Temperature Made Queensland Floods Worse.
Reply #26 - May 18^th, 2012 at 5:43pm

MOTR wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 7:14pm:

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 8:29am:

I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it.

Agreed, La Nina and El Nino events manifest themselves in the form of sea surface temperatures. The point I was trying to make is that a La Nina today will bring more rain than in the past because the warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water than in the past. And the droughts brought about by an El Nino will be more intense because the warmer atmosphere drys out the soil at a faster rate.

...feedback processes? Roll Eyes

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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