Australian Politics Forum - NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW

muso

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #15 - May 14^th, 2012 at 4:00pm

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 1:39pm:

Just to recap on the AGW "science":

" ... no other possibilities."

"Aliens ?"

Disturbing, to say the least.

Well, now's your chance. The issue is the projected climate change as opposed to what we've experienced up to now of course, and that is projected on the basis of different emission scenarios.

This is your opportunity to correct our alleged misconceptions with regards to atmospheric physics. Don't waste it.

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muso

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #16 - May 14^th, 2012 at 4:04pm

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 3:58pm:

muso wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 3:53pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:19pm:

People seem to fall into three camps:

1) Climate change is crap.

Dont believe the climate is changing at all. They take evidence is when they look out the window, the weather seems like any other winters day. End of story.

2) The climate is changing but not by man.

The most untenable position. They see the world wide measurements and realise that the climate is changing, but rather than admit we can do something about it (vested interest, political views, or pure laziness), try to blame-shift away from man.
Fact. Climate is warming. Fact. Co2 warms the climate. Fact. We are releasing millions of tonnes of previously stored co2.

3) Climate change is real, and man is a significant contributor.

If you possess a brain where logic can override your political views, this is where you are.

Once you are in group 3, and everyone will eventually get there, you are then left with 2 options

3a. Do something. price coal, or invest in renewables.

3b. Do nothing. Blame someone else. (chinese, americans, previous generations, etc)

I'm 3a all the way baby!

Some people fall into Camps 1,2 and 3b in the space of a few posts. It depends on where they cut and paste from.

I've never met anyone in Camp 1.

I'm not so sure they exist.

You mean those who claim that the world stopped warming in 1998? They exist. They just keep changing their minds.

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #17 - May 14^th, 2012 at 4:42pm

muso wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 3:53pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:19pm:

People seem to fall into three camps:

1) Climate change is crap.

Dont believe the climate is changing at all. They take evidence is when they look out the window, the weather seems like any other winters day. End of story.

2) The climate is changing but not by man.

The most untenable position. They see the world wide measurements and realise that the climate is changing, but rather than admit we can do something about it (vested interest, political views, or pure laziness), try to blame-shift away from man.
Fact. Climate is warming. Fact. Co2 warms the climate. Fact. We are releasing millions of tonnes of previously stored co2.

3) Climate change is real, and man is a significant contributor.

If you possess a brain where logic can override your political views, this is where you are.

Once you are in group 3, and everyone will eventually get there, you are then left with 2 options

3a. Do something. price coal, or invest in renewables.

3b. Do nothing. Blame someone else. (chinese, americans, previous generations, etc)

I'm 3a all the way baby!

Some people fall into Camps 1,2 and 3b in the space of a few posts. It depends on where they cut and paste from.

I think Tony Abbott has been in all 4 camps.

He's been overhead saying "climate change is crap", so camp 1.

I can recall him claiming to be in camp 2 (probably his favoured camp, and the official line of republicans)

His direct action policy must reside in Camp 3a.

But his approach to not do anything unless the US and China does something implies Camp 3b.

Weathervane.

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Uncle Meat Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2434 Tasmania Gender:	Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Reply #18 - May 14^th, 2012 at 6:53pm muso wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 4:04pm: You mean those who claim that the world stopped warming in 1998? They exist. They just keep changing their minds. Camp 1 says climate change, not warming. I haven't met anyone who doesn't believe in climate change.
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muso

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #19 - May 14^th, 2012 at 8:43pm

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 6:53pm:

muso wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 4:04pm:

You mean those who claim that the world stopped warming in 1998? They exist. They just keep changing their minds.

Camp 1 says climate change, not warming.

I haven't met anyone who doesn't believe in climate change.

I'd say that the intent of Camp 1 is to claim that some people don't believe that there is any evidence of systematic changes to the climate that are beyond normal natural variation. It's just a shortened form of that.

Camp 2 is claiming that there is evidence, but that it's due to other indeterminate natural causes, (without actually suggesting what those causes might be)

Going back to the original post, it's not actually claiming that the hot conditions in those two years were caused by AGW. It's just saying that it gives us a preview of what's to come.

I don't disagree with the original article. It's not claiming a definitive cause of the extreme weather events, which is fair enough.

I'd add another subcategory

3c - They believe that it's due to fossil fuel burning and other generally accepted causes, but they claim that it will be entirely beneficial and take the do nothing option.

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« Last Edit: May 14^th, 2012 at 8:50pm by muso »

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MOTR

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #20 - May 15^th, 2012 at 3:37am

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:41pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:14pm:

Of all the questions in this area like, is climate change happening, or how fast is it happening, that may be slightly difficult to quantify, the question of whether man is responsible is a no brainer.

Only to the closed-minded AGW disciples.

Open-minded sceptics, however, are willing to consider all possibilities.

So, while the AGW disciples dogmatically follow their religion, the sceptics will continue to look at the science.

(hmmm, "no brainer" seems appropriate) Undecided

You seem to be able to accept any other possibility other than the most likely possibility. That doesn't make you a skeptic.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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Doctor Jolly Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3808	Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Reply #21 - May 15^th, 2012 at 9:22am muso wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 8:43pm: I'd add another subcategory 3c - They believe that it's due to fossil fuel burning and other generally accepted causes, but they claim that it will be entirely beneficial and take the do nothing option. I cant believe there is anyone in camp 3c. Surely not ?
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Uncle Meat

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #22 - May 15^th, 2012 at 9:57am

MOTR wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 3:37am:

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:41pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:14pm:

Of all the questions in this area like, is climate change happening, or how fast is it happening, that may be slightly difficult to quantify, the question of whether man is responsible is a no brainer.

Only to the closed-minded AGW disciples.

Open-minded sceptics, however, are willing to consider all possibilities.

So, while the AGW disciples dogmatically follow their religion, the sceptics will continue to look at the science.

(hmmm, "no brainer" seems appropriate) Undecided

You seem to be able to accept any other possibility other than the most likely possibility. That doesn't make you a skeptic.

Incorrect.

I've stated on many occasions that I may eventually change my mind and accept the AGW hypothesis.

However, until such time as credible, reliable evidence is presented I do not subscribe to the man-made possibility.

I remain sceptical, yet open-minded.

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #23 - May 15^th, 2012 at 9:59am

Uncle Meat wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 9:57am:

MOTR wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 3:37am:

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:41pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:14pm:

Of all the questions in this area like, is climate change happening, or how fast is it happening, that may be slightly difficult to quantify, the question of whether man is responsible is a no brainer.

Only to the closed-minded AGW disciples.

Open-minded sceptics, however, are willing to consider all possibilities.

So, while the AGW disciples dogmatically follow their religion, the sceptics will continue to look at the science.

(hmmm, "no brainer" seems appropriate) Undecided

You seem to be able to accept any other possibility other than the most likely possibility. That doesn't make you a skeptic.

Incorrect.

I've stated on many occasions that I may eventually change my mind and accept the AGW hypothesis.

However, until such time as credible, reliable evidence is presented I do not subscribe to the man-made possibility.

I remain sceptical, yet open-minded.

So are you saying, you just dont know why the climate is changing ?

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Uncle Meat

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #24 - May 15^th, 2012 at 10:12am

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 9:59am:

Uncle Meat wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 9:57am:

MOTR wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 3:37am:

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:41pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:14pm:

Of all the questions in this area like, is climate change happening, or how fast is it happening, that may be slightly difficult to quantify, the question of whether man is responsible is a no brainer.

Only to the closed-minded AGW disciples.

Open-minded sceptics, however, are willing to consider all possibilities.

So, while the AGW disciples dogmatically follow their religion, the sceptics will continue to look at the science.

(hmmm, "no brainer" seems appropriate) Undecided

You seem to be able to accept any other possibility other than the most likely possibility. That doesn't make you a skeptic.

Incorrect.

I've stated on many occasions that I may eventually change my mind and accept the AGW hypothesis.

However, until such time as credible, reliable evidence is presented I do not subscribe to the man-made possibility.

I remain sceptical, yet open-minded.

So are you saying, you just dont know why the climate is changing ?

I'm not 100% committed to any one hypothesis.

I remain open-minded. That's what science is about.

So far, there is not enough credible, reliable evidence to support the AGW hypothesis.

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #25 - May 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am

Uncle Meat wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 10:12am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 9:59am:

Uncle Meat wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 9:57am:

MOTR wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 3:37am:

Uncle Meat wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:41pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14^th, 2012 at 12:14pm:

Of all the questions in this area like, is climate change happening, or how fast is it happening, that may be slightly difficult to quantify, the question of whether man is responsible is a no brainer.

Only to the closed-minded AGW disciples.

Open-minded sceptics, however, are willing to consider all possibilities.

So, while the AGW disciples dogmatically follow their religion, the sceptics will continue to look at the science.

(hmmm, "no brainer" seems appropriate) Undecided

You seem to be able to accept any other possibility other than the most likely possibility. That doesn't make you a skeptic.

Incorrect.

I've stated on many occasions that I may eventually change my mind and accept the AGW hypothesis.

However, until such time as credible, reliable evidence is presented I do not subscribe to the man-made possibility.

I remain sceptical, yet open-minded.

So are you saying, you just dont know why the climate is changing ?

I'm not 100% committed to any one hypothesis.

I remain open-minded. That's what science is about.

So far, there is not enough credible, reliable evidence to support the AGW hypothesis.

Yes there is. Its really quite simple. Follow these questions and we'll see where you are diverging off mainstream science.

Q1. The Thermal properties of co2 act as a green house gas in our atmosphere making the planet warmer than it normally would be? True or False ?

Q2. Humans are releasing large amounts of co2 into the atmosphere that was previously stored underground (in fossil fuels). True or false ?

Q3. The earth is a closed system. The Co2 being released has to go somewhere. Some is being absorbed by the ocean (acidifying it, which scientific data is reinforcing), some is staying in the atmosphere (as scientific data is reinforcing). True or false ?

Q4. More co2 in the atmosphere, means more molecules doing there greenhouse actions. True or false ?

Q5. Answers to true in q1 to q4 mean the world is warming due to mans activities. yes ?

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Uncle Meat Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2434 Tasmania Gender:	Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Reply #26 - May 15^th, 2012 at 11:21am Doctor Jolly wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am: Yes there is. No, there isn't. AGW is merely the currently accepted hypothesis. Hypothesis.
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Reply #27 - May 15^th, 2012 at 2:28pm Do you accept the hypothesis that the Earth orbits the Sun?
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Uncle Meat

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #28 - May 15^th, 2012 at 2:33pm

muso wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 2:28pm:

Do you accept the hypothesis that the Earth orbits the Sun?

Right on cue! Roll Eyes

Don't change the subject.

Try to stay focused.

This thread is about AGW (it's in the thread title, in case you weren't sure).

AGW disciples always like to deflect and change the subject when their argument is going nowhere. Once that happens, their credibility goes out the window.

So, AGW is merely the currently accepted hypothesis: you need to accept this fact.

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« Last Edit: May 15^th, 2012 at 2:55pm by Uncle Meat »

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muso

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Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW
Reply #29 - May 15^th, 2012 at 3:54pm

Uncle Meat wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 2:33pm:

muso wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 2:28pm:

Do you accept the hypothesis that the Earth orbits the Sun?

Right on cue! Roll Eyes

Don't change the subject.

Try to stay focused.

This thread is about AGW (it's in the thread title, in case you weren't sure).

AGW disciples always like to deflect and change the subject when their argument is going nowhere. Once that happens, their credibility goes out the window.

So, AGW is merely the currently accepted hypothesis: you need to accept this fact.

Well it's a relevant question. You stated that it was a hypothesis. I'm exploring the concept of hypotheses. So Yes or No?

(If I told you that it was a null hypothesis, would you change your mind?)

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