Australian Politics Forum - Timeline to repeal carbon tax

The Valley Boy

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Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Apr 24^th, 2012 at 1:08pm

This is a quote from Tony Abbott

Quote:

TONY Abbott has pledged to get rid of carbon pricing within just six months of the Coalition winning government.

The Opposition Leader said that if blocked in the Senate he would immediately call another election, a double dissolution, and invite the ALP to commit “suicide twice”.

“I won't reduce the tax, change the tax, or redesign the tax. I will repeal the tax,'' Mr Abbott said in Brisbane today.

http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-promises-to-get-rid-of-carbon-pricin...

OK so lets have a look and see how Abbott can repeal the carbon tax within 6 months.

The next election is due in August 2013 so Abbott is working on getting rid of the carbon tax by February 2014.

First thing he has to do is win a majority in the House of Representative and the Senate so the legislation to pass through both houses. The only thing that will be stopping him is the new Senators do not take their seat until July 2014, 11 months after the election and the carbon tax would all ready be in place for 24 months by then.

Lets come back to August 2013 for the election. Abbott can win majority in the House of Representative easy but it will be harder for him to win a majority in the Senate.

To gain control of the Senate in July 2014, the Coalition would need to -

Retain the three of six seats it holds in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. This ensures the Coalition still has a base 34 seats.
Win a third seat in Tasmania, where the Liberal Party only won two seats in both 2007 and 2010. This takes the Coalition to 35 seats.
Win a third seat in South Australia, where the Liberal Party won only two seats in 2007. This takes the Coalition to 36 seats.
Win a fourth seat in Western Australia, taking the Coalition to 37 seats and needing only two more votes to pass legislation.
Win a fourth seat seat in Queensland, taking the Coalition to 38 seats and needing only the vote of Senator Madigan to pass legislation.
Win a fourth seat in one of the other states to take the Coalition to 39 seats and a majority in its own right.

The key points to highlight concerning the post-2014 Senate are -

The Coalition currently holds 34 seats and there are two cross-bench Senators.
The Coalition would need 39 votes out of 76 to pass any legislation.
In government the Coalition would need 38 votes to prevent the opposition acting to help set up hostile Senate Committees.
If the Coalition fell short of these numbers in the post-2014 Senate and if we assume the Greens or Labor won't help the Coalition numbers, then the critical votes would come from Victorian DLP Senator Madigan, South Australian Independent Senator Nick Xenophon assuming he is re-elected in 2013, and any other minor party or Independent Senators elected in 2013.

So if Abbott tries to pass the legislation before July 2014 it will be knock back. Can you truly see any senators voting for a carbon tax then 9 months later vote against it?

Now we are going to hear all you Abbott cheer squad jumping up and down and saying the Abbott has a mandate to repeal the carbon tax and the senate should pass the legislation, there is also a mandate that the new senators take their seats before the legislation is put before the senate.

There is nothing I can see in the constitution to say that the new Senators have to take their seats before the legislation is pass or knock back the carbon tax, but I bet there would be a High Court challenge if Abbott tries to force Double Dissolution before July 2014 and the new Senators have not voted on the legislation.

Now we come to July 2014 where Abbott tries to pass the legislation with a hostile senate. The legislation is not pass by the senate and Abbott has to wait 3 months before he can put the legislation to the senate again which takes him up to October. The he goes to the Governor-General and ask for a double dissolution of parliament.

Once the parliament is dissolved, the Governor General will issue the writs for the election.

The polling day must be a Saturday and at least 33 days after the issue of the writs. So now we are into the middle of November.

The return of the writs within 100 days of their issue so now we are into early 2015

Then if Abbott has the numbers in both houses he can have a joint sitting after the legislation is not pass again. So now we are February/March before he can repeal the carbon tax.

So how can he say that he will repeal the carbon tax within 6 months of coming into office. The best he can do is July 2014 if he gets a majority in the senate or February/March 2015 if there is a hostile senate that is most likely.

Here are the links I used to form my opinion on this

http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/australian_electoral_system/Electoral_Procedures...

http://australianpolitics.com/constitution-aus/text

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/09/can-the-coalition-win-control-of-the...

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Armchair_Politician

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #1 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 1:37pm

Easy - the massive majority he will enjoy as our next Prime Minister on the back of a massive loss of votes by the ALP and Greens means that the few people who remain in parliament from those two incompetent parties would have no choice but to pass the legislation, as to do so against the wishes of an overwhelming majority of voters would be political suicide and ensure their unemployment following the next election.

Far more people do not want the carbon tax than those who do want it. That is a simple fact of life. Labor and the Greens cannot impose their will on us against the wishes of the electorate without there being serious consequences for those two parties. Mark my words: if Labor and the Greens are foolish enough to attempt to block legislation repealing the carbon tax, they will be signing their electoral death warrants and condemning their party to many years of political irrelevance or even extinction, as happened with the Democrats.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax Reply #2 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 3:33pm All silver spooners are closet carbon price lovers!!!
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged

longweekend58

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #3 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 4:52pm

You ignore one possibility - that the ALP senateors will vote FOR the repeal. After all, with a massive mandate for Abbott it would be political suicide for them to vote against it. Abbott will force the ALP to say what they will do if he wins the election. The DD - no matter when - could decimate labor and STILL repeal the carbon tax.

See, here is the problem for labor. the CT is massively unpopular even with their own supporters. Labor runs the risk of losing a substantial number of senate votes if they say - during the election - they say they wont support a abbott mandate.

it's nowhere near as simple as you make it out to be. Firstly, you assume Gillard wont go to the polls earlier or be forced to it. An election even a couple months earlier brings all your calculations back and entire year. an election in June would see the senators take their seats mere weeks later. two rejections three months apart and the DD could be on before October 2013.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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progressiveslol

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #4 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 4:56pm

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 4:52pm:

You ignore one possibility - that the ALP senateors will vote FOR the repeal. After all, with a massive mandate for Abbott it would be political suicide for them to vote against it. Abbott will force the ALP to say what they will do if he wins the election. The DD - no matter when - could decimate labor and STILL repeal the carbon tax.

See, here is the problem for labor. the CT is massively unpopular even with their own supporters. Labor runs the risk of losing a substantial number of senate votes if they say - during the election - they say they wont support a abbott mandate.

it's nowhere near as simple as you make it out to be. Firstly, you assume Gillard wont go to the polls earlier or be forced to it. An election even a couple months earlier brings all your calculations back and entire year. an election in June would see the senators take their seats mere weeks later. two rejections three months apart and the DD could be on before October 2013.

I can see it now. Abbott declares this election is about repealing the carbon tax (or keeping it) and says 'what of you labor, will you vote to repeal the carbon tax if the people vote me in'

Labor will have to say (at some point when pushed) 'we will honor the word of the people'

lol

They go against that and they are mud mud mud for a long time. I doubt they will say 'we will not honor the peoples vote'

When an election is suffiently declared on one major issue, there is no squirming around it.

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longweekend58

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #5 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:27pm

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 4:56pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 4:52pm:

You ignore one possibility - that the ALP senateors will vote FOR the repeal. After all, with a massive mandate for Abbott it would be political suicide for them to vote against it. Abbott will force the ALP to say what they will do if he wins the election. The DD - no matter when - could decimate labor and STILL repeal the carbon tax.

See, here is the problem for labor. the CT is massively unpopular even with their own supporters. Labor runs the risk of losing a substantial number of senate votes if they say - during the election - they say they wont support a abbott mandate.

it's nowhere near as simple as you make it out to be. Firstly, you assume Gillard wont go to the polls earlier or be forced to it. An election even a couple months earlier brings all your calculations back and entire year. an election in June would see the senators take their seats mere weeks later. two rejections three months apart and the DD could be on before October 2013.

I can see it now. Abbott declares this election is about repealing the carbon tax (or keeping it) and says 'what of you labor, will you vote to repeal the carbon tax if the people vote me in'

Labor will have to say (at some point when pushed) 'we will honor the word of the people'

lol

They go against that and they are mud mud mud for a long time. I doubt they will say 'we will not honor the peoples vote'

When an election is suffiently declared on one major issue, there is no squirming around it.

it will be glorious to watch Labor squirm over this one. with the CT about as popular as the plague, they will either choose to be honourable or face a massacre at a DD.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Johnsmith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4716 Gender:	Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax Reply #6 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm deluded
Back to top	When politicians offer you something for nothing, or something that sounds too good to be true, it's always worth taking a careful second look. (Malcolm Turncoat) IP Logged

progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax Reply #7 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:46pm Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm: deluded The so called deluded is exactly how liberals are going to play it and if not, then they had better.
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Johnsmith

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #8 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:07pm

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:46pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm:

deluded

The so called deluded is exactly how liberals are going to play it and if not, then they had better.

The deluded is ANYBODY who thinks either the ALP or Greens will vote against a policy they themselves fought so hard to pass .... you say they will vote or face annihilation at a DD ... but you also say they will be annihilated at the next election ... if they are annihilated at the next election they have nothing else to loose , they know it will be at least another 8 years later before they are in the running, more than enough time to get over it... and they may even decide to give Abbott back some of his own medicine and play obstructionists ... which would serve him right.

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When politicians offer you something for nothing, or something that sounds too good to be true, it's always worth taking a careful second look.
(Malcolm Turncoat)

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progressiveslol

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #9 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:10pm

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:07pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:46pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm:

deluded

The so called deluded is exactly how liberals are going to play it and if not, then they had better.

The deluded is ANYBODY who thinks either the ALP or Greens will vote against a policy they themselves fought so hard to pass .... you say they will vote or face annihilation at a DD ... but you also say they will be annihilated at the next election ... if they are annihilated at the next election they have nothing else to loose , they know it will be at least another 8 years later before they are in the running, more than enough time to get over it... and they may even decide to give Abbott back some of his own medicine and play obstructionists ... which would serve him right.

Well, no, I am saying that they will/should be backed into a corner to answer the question before the election. The election that is about repealing the carbon tax or keeping it. "Will you labor, support the word of the people and vote to repeal the carbon tax if the liberals win the election'.

That will be a gem to see how labor perform with that question in the coming months to an election.

As for being hammered in a DD. Labor will be dead for longer if that happens. Thye will not want it. They will want to rebuild, not slide further.

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Johnsmith

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #10 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:17pm

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:10pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:07pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:46pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm:

deluded

The so called deluded is exactly how liberals are going to play it and if not, then they had better.

The deluded is ANYBODY who thinks either the ALP or Greens will vote against a policy they themselves fought so hard to pass .... you say they will vote or face annihilation at a DD ... but you also say they will be annihilated at the next election ... if they are annihilated at the next election they have nothing else to loose , they know it will be at least another 8 years later before they are in the running, more than enough time to get over it... and they may even decide to give Abbott back some of his own medicine and play obstructionists ... which would serve him right.

Well, no, I am saying that they will/should be backed into a corner to answer the question before the election. The election that is about repealing the carbon tax or keeping it. "Will you labor, support the word of the people and vote to repeal the carbon tax if the liberals win the election'.

That will be a gem to see how labor perform with that question in the coming months to an election.

Really? If you believe everyone on here, the election is about carbon tax, mining tax, lieing, backstabbing Kevin, Batts fiasco, NBN, Peter Slipper scandal, Thompson scandal etc etc etc... and every other piece of rhetoric every repeats 24/7 ... what makes you think the elction will be about the carbon tax?

I think if Gillard is asked the question before the election, she should stick to her guns ... if he wants to make it about carbon tax do so, by the time we have an election, everyone will see that Abbott has been full of crap the whole time ... the sky won't fall down, we won't all starve, we won't all be energised to another planet or whatever other crap Abbott comes up with . Ohh, don't forget, he will at some point have to explain how he plans on paying for his promises if he gets rid of the tax ...

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When politicians offer you something for nothing, or something that sounds too good to be true, it's always worth taking a careful second look.
(Malcolm Turncoat)

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progressiveslol

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #11 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:24pm

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:17pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:10pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:07pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:46pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm:

deluded

The so called deluded is exactly how liberals are going to play it and if not, then they had better.

The deluded is ANYBODY who thinks either the ALP or Greens will vote against a policy they themselves fought so hard to pass .... you say they will vote or face annihilation at a DD ... but you also say they will be annihilated at the next election ... if they are annihilated at the next election they have nothing else to loose , they know it will be at least another 8 years later before they are in the running, more than enough time to get over it... and they may even decide to give Abbott back some of his own medicine and play obstructionists ... which would serve him right.

Well, no, I am saying that they will/should be backed into a corner to answer the question before the election. The election that is about repealing the carbon tax or keeping it. "Will you labor, support the word of the people and vote to repeal the carbon tax if the liberals win the election'.

That will be a gem to see how labor perform with that question in the coming months to an election.

Really? If you believe everyone on here, the election is about carbon tax, mining tax, lieing, backstabbing Kevin, Batts fiasco, NBN, Peter Slipper scandal, Thompson scandal etc etc etc... and every other piece of rhetoric every repeats 24/7 ... what makes you think the elction will be about the carbon tax?

I think if Gillard is asked the question before the election, she should stick to her guns ... if he wants to make it about carbon tax do so, by the time we have an election, everyone will see that Abbott has been full of crap the whole time ... the sky won't fall down, we won't all starve, we won't all be energised to another planet or whatever other crap Abbott comes up with . Ohh, don't forget, he will at some point have to explain how he plans on paying for his promises if he gets rid of the tax ...

The question will have to be answered 'will labor support the decision by the people of Australia if liberals are elected. Will labor support the peoples opinion to repeal the carbon tax'. That is what it will be about. That will be what Abbott will be relying on to be able to repeal the tax quick smart.

What will labor's answer be.

Not to mention this will be the perfect opportunity for the CO2 debate to go full speed, full swing. Cant wait.

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Johnsmith

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #12 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:26pm

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:24pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:17pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:10pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:07pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:46pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 8:40pm:

deluded

The so called deluded is exactly how liberals are going to play it and if not, then they had better.

The deluded is ANYBODY who thinks either the ALP or Greens will vote against a policy they themselves fought so hard to pass .... you say they will vote or face annihilation at a DD ... but you also say they will be annihilated at the next election ... if they are annihilated at the next election they have nothing else to loose , they know it will be at least another 8 years later before they are in the running, more than enough time to get over it... and they may even decide to give Abbott back some of his own medicine and play obstructionists ... which would serve him right.

Well, no, I am saying that they will/should be backed into a corner to answer the question before the election. The election that is about repealing the carbon tax or keeping it. "Will you labor, support the word of the people and vote to repeal the carbon tax if the liberals win the election'.

That will be a gem to see how labor perform with that question in the coming months to an election.

Really? If you believe everyone on here, the election is about carbon tax, mining tax, lieing, backstabbing Kevin, Batts fiasco, NBN, Peter Slipper scandal, Thompson scandal etc etc etc... and every other piece of rhetoric every repeats 24/7 ... what makes you think the elction will be about the carbon tax?

I think if Gillard is asked the question before the election, she should stick to her guns ... if he wants to make it about carbon tax do so, by the time we have an election, everyone will see that Abbott has been full of crap the whole time ... the sky won't fall down, we won't all starve, we won't all be energised to another planet or whatever other crap Abbott comes up with . Ohh, don't forget, he will at some point have to explain how he plans on paying for his promises if he gets rid of the tax ...

The question will have to be answered 'will labor support the decision by the people of Australia if liberals are elected. Will labor support the peoples opinion to repeal the carbon tax'. That is what it will be about. That will be what Abbott will be relying on to be able to repeal the tax quick smart.

What will labor's answer be.

Not to mention this will be the perfect opportuniy for the CO2 debate to go full speed, full swing. Cant wait.

I told you, I think her answer should be a definite NO ... they will not repeal the carbon tax legislation ...

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When politicians offer you something for nothing, or something that sounds too good to be true, it's always worth taking a careful second look.
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juliar

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #13 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:29pm

Who really cares 6 months or 1 year the CO2 Communist Greens Socialist tax is, like Labor, DOOMED to OBLIVION once common sense, responsibility, and competence is restored to Australian government by the shining excellent Coalition staffed by qualified capable operatives - not unqualified brown nosing career ex-unionists with no real world experience who were raised in the rarefied atmosphere of the union chookhouse to brown nose, lie, cheat, hate business success, revere socialism, etc.

If necessary a DD will send the dying remnants of the Communist Greens to eternity where they will never recover.

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Johnsmith

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Re: Timeline to repeal carbon tax
Reply #14 - Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:31pm

juliar wrote on Apr 24^th, 2012 at 9:29pm:

Who really cares 6 months or 1 year the CO2 Communist Greens Socialist tax is, like Labor, DOOMED to OBLIVION once common sense, responsibility, and competence is restored to Australian government by the shining excellent Coalition staffed by qualified capable operatives - not unqualified brown nosing career ex-unionists with no real world experience who were raised in the rarefied atmosphere of the union chookhouse to brown nose, lie, cheat, hate business success, revere socialism, etc.

If necessary a DD will send the dying remnants of the Communist Greens to eternity where they will never recover.

He will NEVER go to a DD .. in fact I doubt Abbott will even be opposition leader come the next election, thereby giving the libs a get out of jail card re the carbon tax

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When politicians offer you something for nothing, or something that sounds too good to be true, it's always worth taking a careful second look.
(Malcolm Turncoat)

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