Federal Labor vote near Queensland lows: Newspoll.

MATTHEW FRANKLIN, CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT The Australian March 27 2012.


LABOR hopes that voter contempt for its brand is confined to Queensland have been shattered by the latest Newspoll, which shows the party's national support has plunged close to the record lows returned in the weekend's election rout.

The latest Newspoll survey reveals that federal Labor's primary support has dropped three percentage points to 28 per cent in the past fortnight just one point above the 26.9 per cent figure achieved in its devastating loss in Queensland.

With Labor's support now at its lowest point since last September, the Coalition's primary vote has climbed four points to 47 per cent and now sits about three percentage points short of the vote the Queensland Liberal National Party achieved in its victory over Anna Bligh's government.

The Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian over the weekend, reveals voter satisfaction with Julia Gillard improved. However, it also found the Coalition extended its commanding two-party-preferred lead over Labor to 57 per cent against 43 per cent in the fortnight when the Prime Minister successfully pushed the mining tax through the Senate. Two weeks earlier, the Coalition led Labor by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.


The poll, taken across the nation among 925 respondents, emerged yesterday amid an intense debate about whether Labor's Queensland electoral disaster might be repeated in next year's federal election.

With the LNP stripping Labor of 43 seats at the weekend and reducing its parliamentary representation to single figures, former Queensland premier Peter Beattie warned on Sunday that federal Labor must shift course or face annihilation in the northern state in the federal poll.

Labor's primary-vote slide represents the first time its vote has fallen below 30 per cent since October after reaching a record low of 26 per cent in mid-September.

The government's primary vote has plunged seven percentage points in the past month wiping out most of the gains Ms Gillard secured in the final months of last year and the early months of this year.

If the latest Newspoll results were reflected on election day, Labor would be trounced, with its primary vote now 10 percentage points below the support it attracted in the 2010 election, in which it failed to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.

Labor's fall came despite Labor celebrations last week over the March 19 passage of the minerals resource rent tax, set to raise $10.6 billion in its first three years.

Ms Gillard lauded the vote as evidence of her ability to negotiate difficult legislation through the Senate. When questioned about whether she believed she could win Senate approval for proposed business tax cuts to be funded from the MRRT, she told journalists that they frequently "scoffed" at her ability to steer legislation through passage and was entitled to "go (look at the) scoreboard".

The MRRT legislation also included an increase in the superannuation guarantee from 9 per cent to 12 per cent.

While the government celebrated this change, it came under heavy attack from business groups, which said employers would have to bear the $20bn-a-year cost, prompting Superannuation Minister Bill Shorten to declare workers would fund most of the increase through deferred pay rises.

The latest Newspoll found the Greens primary vote stood at 11 per cent down one point from the March 9-11 survey.

Despite Labor's losses, Ms Gillard's personal popularity increased, with voter satisfaction with her performance up three percentage points to 31 per cent as her dissatisfaction rating fell four points to 58 per cent.

Thirty-two per cent of voters were satisfied with Tony Abbott's performance, unchanged from a fortnight earlier, and 58 per cent were dissatisfied.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/federal-labor-vote-near-queensl...

matty wrote on Apr 16^th, 2012 at 12:37pm:


While Gillard remains as leader and Abbott continues to successfully prosecute the charge she cannot be trusted, Abbott's liabilities are not such an issue. A clean skin PM (which Rudd could never be) will deny Abbott of his trump card and perhaps focus the electorate on his own integrity and obvious failings. The closer the Labor leadership change is to the election, the more difficult it will be for the Liberals to change leaders. I don't think there is any doubt on either side of politics that a Turnbull led Coalition would romp it in at the next election. That's not to say that won't happen under Abbott, but his unpopularity with the electorate makes him more vulnerable against a Gillardless ALP.

The most likely clean skin is Smith in my mind. Denying him the Foreign Affairs portfolio limits his profile and keeps him in a ministry which is giving him some grief. Just a thought.

corporate_whitey wrote on Apr 16^th, 2012 at 1:53pm:


We know, Whitey. Let Gillard soak up the venom, then switch.

Quote:

OR Blaxland, which they hold by a tiny 30%,hey mel.

MOTR wrote on Apr 16^th, 2012 at 2:09pm:


I know that you lefties try to blame everything on the opposition, and Mr Abbott especially, but it's not going to fly. Smith is responsible for his own actions.

matty wrote on Apr 16^th, 2012 at 2:13pm:


So you are backing Kafer on this one. What part of allowing the character of the potential innocent victim of an alleged serious sexual abuse to be brought into play, doesn't  deserve to be described as "stupid", "inappropriate, insensitive and wrong".

you labor supporters are sometimes stupider that I thought possible. Some of the comments here are beyond stupid. The only chancge labor has to salvage some seats fromt eh electoral train wreeck heading their way is to dump Gillard. They cant win, but they sure can lose by less.