BigOl64 wrote on Mar 13^th, 2012 at 1:08pm:



And you don't care about that person.
You only care about number 1.
A typical Libbo.

And you don't care about that person.
You only care about number 1.
A typical Libbo.

You have to ask yourself why does someone hate people
just because they are trying to get ahead in life

Big,
Quote:



Nail just gets annoyed at people who buy 10 properties while
there are so many families caught in the rental trap.
He doesn't hate a little old lady who got conned out of her super
by a real estate maggot.

Big,
You need to take a good look at yourself in the mirror.
You're not the full quid.

Bobby. wrote on Mar 13^th, 2012 at 11:52am:


Like I always say, free advice is worth what you pay for it. Can you imagine borrowing 600K to buy something  that is now worth only 400K and landing up in negative equity !! Well that is exactly the advice that madweekend was doling out here just a few years ago

It's valued now at $1.3m and I own it with no mortgage.

Contemplate or dwell on one's own success or another's misfortune with malignant pleasure:

It's the property spruikers we hate for sprouting lies about real estate never losing value.

It hasn't bottomed yet, nowhere near.

Myself, bobby and nails give people advice not to buy real estate because it is bound to lose value and we don't like to see ordinary family people ripped off by unscrupulous real estate agents that would rob their own grandma's.

Where were the floods in St Kilda? I didn't hear about that, hope everyone is ok.

Real estate is going the same way as manufacturing and retail.....south. But never fear, other industries will take their place, renewable energy and sustainable cottage industries.

Anyone have any innovative ideas? I know you do lastnail with your non fossil fool cars. Anyone else?

Buying and selling houses to at an ever increased price is finished      pity for the last ones to buy before the crash...... sh*t happens!

The Australian Property Market and the Conversation Nobody Wants to Hear

Why the Property Market is Running Out of Gas

It seems almost no Australian property owner wants to hear anything negative about the property market – even if it is the truth.

So when I started throwing about a few iffy statistics I’d had my eye on, I felt about as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.

Do you think they wanted to hear that annual housing credit growth is at a 35-year low?

Not particularly.

But it is.

Housing credit is the ‘gas’ that inflated the property bubble. As investors and home buyers take out more loans, it facilitates property demand, which leads to higher prices. A month ago, annual housing credit had fallen to a record low of 5.4% year on year. Last week, this fell again to set a new 35-year low of 5.3% year-on-year growth.

The result? At best – housing holds its ground. At worst, gravity finally catches up with the Australian property market in earnest, and we see it fall significantly as it has in every other Western property market.

Housing credit is the lifeblood of rising property prices. Housing credit growth levels spent most of the last 20 years in the double digits. With levels of only 5.3% year-on-year growth today, it is impossible to see property prices staying at their ‘laws-of-physics-defying’ high levels.

We have also just got news that new homes sales in Australia crashed by a record monthly fall of 7.3% in January. The monthly fall in new sales was not a one off, and is part of a trend. Multi-unit sales have been smashed 25.1% if you compare sales over the last three months to the same period in 2011.

So where do we stand now?

The chart from the Reserve Bank of Australia gives us an idea.

Australian Property Prices Are Clearly Trending Down

Source: RBA

Australian property prices did actually pick up 0.8% in February, and these charts don’t show this. I’m not reading too much into this. One month’s figures are meaningless on their own, and this is likely to be just a blip. The trend is still clearly down, which suggests prices have further to fall just yet.

The Aussie economy has just had more bad news. Data released yesterday on the Aussie retail sector, painted a bleak picture for the economy.

The Australian services index contracted in a big way last month. Anything under 50 means the sector is shrinking – and in February it was at 46.7, plummeting down from a barely expansionary 51.9 in January. The ‘employment measure’ figure dropped from 51.2 to 47.5. Sales and new orders also fell by a similar amount.

This matters to Australian property owners because the retail industry directly employs around 15% of the Australian workforce, and indirectly employs far more. When such a large chunk of the Aussie workforce is starting to do it tough, you should expect a slowdown in the Australian economy and a further fall in property prices.

Betting on Australian Property Prices Falling

Many large hedge funds overseas are betting on Australian property prices to crack sometime this year. They don’t tend to reveal how they are doing this, but I expect they are shorting property funds, the Aussie dollar, or possibly interest rate futures.

The easiest way for most everyday investors to do the same is to sell their homes. However, RP Data-Rismark are now launching an index that allows investors to trade Australian property prices on a daily basis. It is not up and running yet, and it’s not clear yet whether it is possible to short sell the index to profit from falling prices.

If it is possible to short sell this index, it may have started just at the right time for property bears.

It looks increasingly like Australian property could face the same dose of salts that has affected nearly every other property market in the world in the last few years.

But … do you think the other dinner guests wanted to hear all that?