Australian Politics Forum - House Prices Crash

Sir lastnail

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #195 - Mar 16^th, 2012 at 10:54pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 6:36pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 5:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 4:57pm:

so you keep saying yada yada. and been wrong for years and years now...

not only wrong but MASSIVELY wrong - the only thing you specialise in.

And your predictions are just like a stuck clock where you only get the time right twice each day Cheesy

LOL

except I ahve been right for 20 years all 24 hours of each day whil you have never yet been correct. all we have ever seen in price drops has been market corrections. the rest of the time we have seen capital appreciation - soemthing you seem unwilling or unable to comprehend.

so how come you didn't predict the GFC ?? Steve Keen did Wink

Major oversight on your behalf wouldn't you say Wink

As each day goes by you and your predictions are looking rather foolish. You remind me of Robert Deniro on Cape Fear where he is talking in tongues as he slowly drowns in the river. That's exactly how you sound now Cheesy

LOL

scroll to 3:15 and you will see madweekend Cheesy

LOL

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« Last Edit: Mar 16^th, 2012 at 11:00pm by Sir lastnail »

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Sir lastnail

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #196 - Mar 16^th, 2012 at 11:02pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 6:41pm:

Longweekend,
You've been spruiking house prices since 2007 on Yahoo Politics.

Sometimes I thought you were a real estate agent.

If you were so sure then why didn't you borrow money against your house
& buy up a couple of units?

If you had done so you would most likely have negative equity
yet you were telling others at least once a week to buy buy buy.

You're a hypocrite & you should apologise.

Yeh madweekend missed out on making a quick million bucks by not taking his own advice Cheesy

LOL

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"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

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longweekend58

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #197 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 7:12am

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 10:54pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 6:36pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 5:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 4:57pm:

so you keep saying yada yada. and been wrong for years and years now...

not only wrong but MASSIVELY wrong - the only thing you specialise in.

And your predictions are just like a stuck clock where you only get the time right twice each day Cheesy

LOL

except I ahve been right for 20 years all 24 hours of each day whil you have never yet been correct. all we have ever seen in price drops has been market corrections. the rest of the time we have seen capital appreciation - soemthing you seem unwilling or unable to comprehend.

so how come you didn't predict the GFC ?? Steve Keen did Wink

Major oversight on your behalf wouldn't you say Wink

As each day goes by you and your predictions are looking rather foolish. You remind me of Robert Deniro on Cape Fear where he is talking in tongues as he slowly drowns in the river. That's exactly how you sound now Cheesy

LOL

scroll to 3:15 and you will see madweekend Cheesy

LOL

and here is the problem with arging with you. i DID predict the GFC and of my 5 specific predictions, I gopt 4 right. but let's not mention that right? and your record on those 5 predictions??? you got 4 wrong.

and steve keen is STILL wrong on house prices. just like you he has been predicting a 50% drop in house prices for the last 5 years while being totally wrong. and he is only doing so because he got dudded out of his house by his wife in the divorce and he wants its value to plummet.

u r an idiot.

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 121377 Melbourne Gender:	Re: House Prices Crash Reply #198 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 8:57am Hi Longweekend, You always insulted Steve Keen & all his ideas. Have a read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Keen
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muso

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #199 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 9:06am

Bobby. wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 8:58pm:

Thanks Perceptions,
Finally Longweekend has been told by a moderator
that he's an idiot.

Ahem. I might be wrong, but I don't think PN intended to be wearing his moderator's hat for that post. That's one of the reasons I quit as a global moderator. I would have cringed at that remark BB.

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Bobby.

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #200 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 9:21am

Hi Muso,
I think I'll copy & paste it for future reference. Grin

Perceptions about Longweekend:
Quote:

"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"!

LW, you are still living in an era that has ended and you wouldn't see a trend, if it bit you on the ass!

Try looking, IF YOU CAN, at what is already happening in the US & Europe & that will show you where OZ will head!

But, you won't, because you are what you say everyone else is!

In short, YOU ARE AN IDIOT!

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Sir lastnail

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #201 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:23am

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 7:12am:

and here is the problem with arging with you. i DID predict the GFC and of my 5 specific predictions, I gopt 4 right. but let's not mention that right? and your record on those 5 predictions??? you got 4 wrong.

and steve keen is STILL wrong on house prices. just like you he has been predicting a 50% drop in house prices for the last 5 years while being totally wrong. and he is only doing so because he got dudded out of his house by his wife in the divorce and he wants its value to plummet.

u r an idiot.

Where is the evidence of you predicting the GFC ?? You never predicted it at all and if you were so sure of your silly predictions why didn't you go out an buy up property ?? In your own words you could have made easy money but you didn't do a thing !! It's one thing making predictions with the same chance outcome as flipping a coin it's another standing by them which you don't do !!

And with bank lending growth rate at a 35 year low there is no longer any easy credit to fuel the bubble and maintain the ponzi scheme so there is only one way for house prices to go and that is DOWN !

DOWN DOWN PRICES ARE DOWN Cheesy

LOL

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"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 121377 Melbourne Gender:	Re: House Prices Crash Reply #202 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 12:28pm Hi Nail, At last a moderator has said to Longweekend: Quote: YOU ARE AN IDIOT!
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Sir lastnail

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #203 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 12:58pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 12:28pm:

Hi Nail,
At last a moderator has said to Longweekend:

Quote:

YOU ARE AN IDIOT!

I don't know why madweekend is so worried about the property market collapsing. He reckons he owns his own home which he only paid 35K for and I doubt very much that property is going to fall that far that he has lost. He also never took his own financial advice and speculated on the property market so a collapsing property market shouldn't effect him in the slightest but he still barks the loudest on these forums. Why ??

Perhaps he gave other people bad financial advice and now somebody he knows is about to get burnt badly !! Maybe he gave financial advice to people from his own church Wink

LOL

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"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #204 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 5:20pm

Here is an interesting take on the housing market, incidentally from a person who's predictions have been proven true, Steve Keen. Spruikers take note!

We managed to buy time, just like Greece and the European debt crises. Just like America and their money printing fiasco.

The best chart was this one:

It shows that, adjusted for the time at which house prices peaked, the Australian housing bubble is in lockstep with house price declines in Japan... And not far behind the US. We're on track for trouble, even if you don't think we'll get there.

So why is Australia suffering now and not last year and the year before?

Part of the answer, according to Keen, is that we managed to buy time with what he calls the 'first-home vendors grant' (because it benefitted home sellers rather than first-home buyers).

But buying time just makes the pain worse when the crash does come, especially for the first-home buyers tricked into the market by their government. The question is whether they will deserve a bailout when things turn sour.

So how much does debt really matter to an economy as a whole?

Keen seems to think it's the unseen elephant in the room. At least the conventional economists can't spot it. And he's very persuasive.

You might think the world of debt-based economics is difficult or complicated. But if you're on the side of the person consuming the information, it's actually very intuitive. Keen has done the hard yards for you.

Think of it in terms of your own household. If you borrow money to buy a house, has your income increased in that year? If you asked your accountant, they would say no. But an economist measuring the GDP of your household would say yes - you've got money and spent it - that's economic activity.

So borrowing adds to GDP. And if you separate the change in GDP out from the rest of GDP, you discover that a lot of our world's growth has been debt funded. The last time that happened it ended badly.

Here's another chart featured in Keen's presentation that he kindly allowed your editor to use. It shows that aggregate private debt has a habit of raging out of control and then plummeting back to earth at precisely the moments when booms and busts are particularly severe. The Great Depression and the current economic debacle feature prominently.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/debt-onomics-and-the-coming-debt-ocalypse/2012/...

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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perceptions_now

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #205 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 8:49pm

muso wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 9:06am:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 16^th, 2012 at 8:58pm:

Thanks Perceptions,
Finally Longweekend has been told by a moderator
that he's an idiot.

Ahem. I might be wrong, but I don't think PN intended to be wearing his moderator's hat for that post. That's one of the reasons I quit as a global moderator. I would have cringed at that remark BB.

Well Muso, I would suggest if it's good for the Goose (Longweakend) to go around calling everyone he disagrees with a Moron, an IDIOT or something similar on nearly every post, then perhaps the Gander (being me) can make it clear (every so often), that LW is what he accuses others of being, namely he is an IDIOT &/or a MORON!

If for no other reasons, than to balance the ledger a little & expose him (LW), for what he is, which is wrong in many of his assertions and a decidedly anti social person into the bargain.

Otherwise, I'm sure his mother still loves him & I look forward to many more of his posts, where he doesn't run down other members, just because that is his personality.

Btw, I have no problem making these remarks, global moderator or not, I still have a right to rebuke a fool and I don't cringe, just never learned how!

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perceptions_now

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Re: House Prices Crash
Reply #206 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:19pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 5:20pm:

Here is an interesting take on the housing market, incidentally from a person who's predictions have been proven true, Steve Keen. Spruikers take note!

We managed to buy time, just like Greece and the European debt crises. Just like America and their money printing fiasco.

The best chart was this one:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/drw20120317a.jpg

It shows that, adjusted for the time at which house prices peaked, the Australian housing bubble is in lockstep with house price declines in Japan... And not far behind the US. We're on track for trouble, even if you don't think we'll get there.

So why is Australia suffering now and not last year and the year before?

Part of the answer, according to Keen, is that we managed to buy time with what he calls the 'first-home vendors grant' (because it benefitted home sellers rather than first-home buyers).

But buying time just makes the pain worse when the crash does come, especially for the first-home buyers tricked into the market by their government. The question is whether they will deserve a bailout when things turn sour.

So how much does debt really matter to an economy as a whole?

Keen seems to think it's the unseen elephant in the room. At least the conventional economists can't spot it. And he's very persuasive.

You might think the world of debt-based economics is difficult or complicated. But if you're on the side of the person consuming the information, it's actually very intuitive. Keen has done the hard yards for you.

Think of it in terms of your own household. If you borrow money to buy a house, has your income increased in that year? If you asked your accountant, they would say no. But an economist measuring the GDP of your household would say yes - you've got money and spent it - that's economic activity.

So borrowing adds to GDP. And if you separate the change in GDP out from the rest of GDP, you discover that a lot of our world's growth has been debt funded. The last time that happened it ended badly.

Here's another chart featured in Keen's presentation that he kindly allowed your editor to use. It shows that aggregate private debt has a habit of raging out of control and then plummeting back to earth at precisely the moments when booms and busts are particularly severe. The Great Depression and the current economic debacle feature prominently.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/debt-onomics-and-the-coming-debt-ocalypse/2012/...

You mean this one, Pansi.

Given that we are really only at the start of the Great Boomer Bust and the current GFC, I would suggest the current downard trend on private Debt has a long way to run!

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 121377 Melbourne Gender:	Re: House Prices Crash Reply #207 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:27pm Hi Pansi & Perceptions, What I don't understand is how the USA & Europe can print all that money & not cause hyperinflation? If you think about it - the $A should worth US $2 now. I don't think that printing money will have a nice ending.
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Frances Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3577 In a Castle in the Hills Gender:	Re: House Prices Crash Reply #208 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:40pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:27pm: I don't think that printing money will have a nice ending. It certainly didn't for the Weimar Republic....
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 121377 Melbourne Gender:	Re: House Prices Crash Reply #209 - Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:41pm Frances wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:40pm: Bobby. wrote on Mar 17^th, 2012 at 10:27pm: I don't think that printing money will have a nice ending. It certainly didn't for the Weimar Republic.... Yes & it led to the rise of Hitler.
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