Australian Politics Forum - The end of peak Oil.

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: Peak Oil has been postponed - about 150 years!
Reply #60 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 10:49am

freediver wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 9:08pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 10:21am:

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 9:38pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 9:15pm:

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:44pm:

Quote:

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget.

I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline.

Quote:

Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price.

Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago.

It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !!

So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile?

All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again Wink

I won't see fancy ice creams for 20c each either. How is this relevant? Is your entire position based on failure to understand inflation?

so the price increases at the fool bowser are all based on inflation ?? Some how I don't think so Wink

All I know is the price at the fool bowser is heading upwards whilst the cost of renewables is heading downwards Wink

No one has to make payments to the sun god do they ??

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: Peak Oil has been postponed - about 150 years!
Reply #61 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 7:30pm

freediver wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 9:08pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 10:21am:

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 9:38pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 9:15pm:

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:44pm:

Quote:

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget.

I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline.

Quote:

Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price.

Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago.

It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !!

So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile?

All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again Wink

I won't see fancy ice creams for 20c each either. How is this relevant? Is your entire position based on failure to understand inflation?

You may like to elaborate your position here FD?

How do you see inflation impacting the Price of Oil P/barrel & Petrol P/litre & vice versa, over the last decade, currently & over the next decade?

And Longy, you may as well have your 2 cents worth, on a similar impact, but in respect of Oil Shale OR Shale Oil?

Back to top

IP Logged

freediver

Gold Member

Offline

www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 53437
At my desk.

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #62 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 8:03pm

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

Back to top

People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #63 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:02pm

freediver wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 8:03pm:

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

And the last decade, currently & over the next decade?

Back to top

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #64 - Mar 3^rd, 2012 at 12:13pm

EROI
Reported EROIs (energy return on investments) are generally in the range of 1.5:1 to 4:1, with a few extreme values between 7:1 and 13:1.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, although shale oils represent a huge potential resource they have a history of “always a bridesmaid and never a bride” because as prices for oil increase the prices for extracting shale oil have increased as well. This history represents the very real problems of generating a useful product from the resource.

Link
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3839
=================================
The fact is that it takes almost as much Energy to produce a barrel of Shale Oil, as it generates when it is used, unlike Crude Oil which early on had an EROI ratio of about 100/1!

In short, it is almost an Energy sink hole!

That said, as Crude Oil Production Production continues to Decline over the next few decades, it is almost a given that "unconventional Oil", such as Shale Oil & Oil Sands will come to the fore.

However, given the processes involved, it is certain that the Production of this "unconventional Oil" will be at a greatly increased Price & at a continuing reduction in availability as Crude Oil goes into terminal Decline, with the outcome being a drastic lowering of Economic activity & Growth!

Back to top

IP Logged

perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: The end of peak Oil. Reply #65 - Mar 3^rd, 2012 at 11:39pm Chris Martenson On The Reality Of Peak Oil http://3blmedia.com/theCSRfeed/Chris-Martenson-Reality-Peak-Oil
Back to top	IP Logged

muso

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #66 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 8:42am

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:02pm:

freediver wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 8:03pm:

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

And the last decade, currently & over the next decade?

I'd say that it's only true over the last few years. The retail price of petrol no longer tracks the price of crude oil. I used to graph it for a while. It's based on the Singapore benchmark, and that is dependent on what the market will stand.It's inflation based. If less people buy petrol, the price will go down. The growing middle class in China is buying more petrol.

I just re-read FD's post and have no argument with the point he makes wrt the cost of living.

Back to top

1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #67 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 9:38pm

Food for thought -

1) Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.

2) Inflation @ an average of 3.5% Annually
Jan-01 100.00%
2002 103.50%
2003 107.12%
2004 110.87%
2005 114.75%
2006 118.77%
2007 122.93%
2008 127.22%
2009 131.68%
2010 136.20%
2011 141.06%
Jan-12 146.00%

3) Brent Crude Brent Peaks

Jan-99 $10.95
2000 $25.22
2001 $25.64
2002 $19.48
2003 $31.29
2004 $31.18
2005 $44.28
2006 $63.57
2007 $54.30
2008 $91.92 $133.90 Jul-08
2009 $44.86
2010 $76.37
2011 $96.29 $123.15 Apr-11
Jan-12 $110.99    $126.20 1/03/2012

4) Petrol Prices will vary according to where and what you buy, but the following are interesting starting points, in WA -
Jan-1999 $0.60
Jan-2001 $0.80
Jul-08    $1.60
Apr-11    $1.20
1/03/2012 $1.50

In short, what is going on is not related to general inflation, but there are specific issues relevant to Energy Production & Consumption AND the the Local & Global Economy!

Btw, IF anyone knows of a website with Australian average Petrol Prices, go back a decade OR MORE, could you please advise me, so I can properly fill in the petrol pricing gaps.

Thanks, in advance!

Back to top

« Last Edit: Mar 4^th, 2012 at 11:01pm by perceptions_now »

IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #68 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 9:41pm

freediver wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 8:03pm:

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

Well you don't exactly put the Dow Jones in your fuel tank so that's a silly analogy !!

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #69 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 11:28pm

More food for thought

The following US chart, which shows -
1) A closer correlation between Crude Oil (WTi) Costs & the cost at the Petrol pump.

2) That US Petrol costs are significantly less than what is offered up, in OZ & in Europe.
The Australian cost per litre now being around OZ$1.50.
European consumers may be paying around OZ$2.00.
But the US Consumer is only paying around a OZ$1.00 a litre and is not a happy camper!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/409161-gasoline-price-increases-prelude-to-the-n...

Back to top

IP Logged

Grey

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 5341
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #70 - Mar 5^th, 2012 at 2:18am

Quote:

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget.

One thing is for sure: the world isn’t running out of oil and gas any more.

this should upset perceptions and lastnail

I wonder, it doesn't upset me much, I'm resigned to the fact of idiocy in most places high and low. There is the poo, there is the fan, and there are all the people saying it will never happen.

Back to top

"It is in the shelter of each other that the people live" - Irish Proverb

IP Logged

Grey

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 5341
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #71 - Mar 5^th, 2012 at 2:25am

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.
Quote:

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

The resource is finite, (agreed Cheesy

) The price is trending down, (in the wonderful world of freediver), the consumption is trending up, (exponentially).

Are you saying she'll be right Einstein? Is this what your grasp of economics is telling you?

Back to top

"It is in the shelter of each other that the people live" - Irish Proverb

IP Logged

red baron Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 10204 Blue Mountains Gender:	Re: The end of peak Oil. Reply #72 - Mar 5^th, 2012 at 8:49am You stay up late Grey, 2.25am post yet! Have to dub you Midenight Starvation. Not burning the midnight oil are you? - really can't afford to burn oil at that rate. (You can take a joke right?)
Back to top	IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: The end of peak Oil.
Reply #73 - Mar 5^th, 2012 at 1:43pm

red baron wrote on Mar 5^th, 2012 at 8:49am:

You stay up late Grey, 2.25am post yet! Have to dub you Midenight Starvation. Not burning the midnight oil are you? - really can't afford to burn oil at that rate. (You can take a joke right?)

You may have been closer than you think?

However, as you come from Germany, you may not have realised that there are different time zones in the land of OZ? The land of OZ is a lot bigger than Germany!

So, whilst it may have been 2.25am in one time zone, it might have been 3.25am in another or it may have only been 12.25am in another time zone?

Thus, your comment of "burning the midnight oil", may have been closer than you thought?

Btw, you can take a joke right?

Back to top

IP Logged

red baron Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 10204 Blue Mountains Gender:	Re: The end of peak Oil. Reply #74 - Mar 6^th, 2012 at 9:05am Absoluetly now - too right I can, when are you going to crack one? For funny material please check Uncle Meat's posts for a 'how to' guide.
Back to top	IP Logged