blackadder wrote on Mar 4
th, 2012 at 8:17pm:
It was always cyclic but to these extremes??
Yep always has been and always will be. Talk to old timers on the land.
Well it's true that there have been floods and cyclones in the past, and that's about all you'll get from "old timers on the land", but it takes a bit of research to determine if there has been a
significant shift (say) in the last 50 years or not.
You have to look at the situation not just in Australia, but all over the world, and according to recent studies the trend is showing a significant increase in these kinds of events worldwide.
The increased precipitation and severe winters in Europe in the past few years on its own is an indication that things are changing.
I'll try to find a recent research paper that was a fairly methodical study of extreme weather events. The conclusion was that there has been a statistically significant increase.
You can chew the cud with old timers on the land all you want, but you're never going to get a definitive answer that way.
To illustrate the statistical approach, if you smoke cigarettes, it increases your risk of contracting lung cancer by 40%. You can't refute that claim by stating that you know a 96year old who smoked all his life and is in perfect health. An Old timer might say:
"Old Joe Clancy has smoked all his life. He died last week and he looked a hell of a lot better than you do"
In fact the stats can actually
predict how many 96 year old smokers would survive if it increases the risk of lung cancer by 40% across an entire population.
In the same way, it's irrelevant to speak about
individual extreme weather events. It's the overall pattern that counts.
Do you see what I'm getting at?
Quote:Is that what the opposition leader gets paid 180K
- and that is relevant how?
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