Australian Politics Forum - Flannery is a goose.

longweekend58

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #15 - Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:02pm

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 10:20am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:16am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:06am:

Some of you right wing nutters want to drag us back to the dark ages.

I suspect many of you resent academics and would have universities bulldozed and scientists burned at the stake.

you'd do better by not trying to paint everyone who disagrees with you in such terms. if you want to debate the issue then do so on actual science - not opinion.

and you can start with explaining to me why we should trust predictions made using computer models that are woefully inaccurate? the litmus test for every computer model (in every area) is that it should be able to 'reverse-predict' the past using this model. In every single case, the models have failed to do so.

so explain why we should spend so much money and change everything we do on the basis of predictions that have zero chance of being correct?

Youve got your facts wrong again. The computer models have been astonishingly accurate, and there accuracy increases year by year as they are tuned with more up to date data.

That is why we must act now, because the models are telling us a very accurate and nasty future.

well your credibility just crashed big time. not even the climate scientiest themselves make that claim. and BTW, my company TEACHES computer modelling in the water sector. one of the first lessons you learn is that ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, but some are useful. anyone who says that their model is perfect or near-perfect is a fool.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #16 - Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:19pm

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:02pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 10:20am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:16am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:06am:

Some of you right wing nutters want to drag us back to the dark ages.

I suspect many of you resent academics and would have universities bulldozed and scientists burned at the stake.

you'd do better by not trying to paint everyone who disagrees with you in such terms. if you want to debate the issue then do so on actual science - not opinion.

and you can start with explaining to me why we should trust predictions made using computer models that are woefully inaccurate? the litmus test for every computer model (in every area) is that it should be able to 'reverse-predict' the past using this model. In every single case, the models have failed to do so.

so explain why we should spend so much money and change everything we do on the basis of predictions that have zero chance of being correct?

Youve got your facts wrong again. The computer models have been astonishingly accurate, and there accuracy increases year by year as they are tuned with more up to date data.

That is why we must act now, because the models are telling us a very accurate and nasty future.

well your credibility just crashed big time.

Show me where a publish (in scientific journal) model prediction has proven wrong then ?

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muso

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #17 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 9:51am

You're wasting your time DJ. You're dealing with the religiously devout. I was amazed at the response I got from a small business owner when the subject of climate change came up. He was totally worked up and ropable. A lot of these small business associations have been hijacked by the denialists. They just don't get any other information. He showed me his business association magazine and it was absolutely chock full of pseudoscience. He got quite angry when I explained that it was all nonsense. I could see that from a cursory glance at the articles.

They just don't "get" the fact that the science is as well accepted as the theory of gravitation, that every government or academic institute around the world endorses the position of Climate Science. It's taught in university courses the world around even including the University of Huntsville, Alabama (where John Christy is based) and there is no alternative view presented, because there is no alternative view among professionals in the field.

From the UAH Academic course summaries
Quote:

ATS 561 - Atmospheric Radiation I 3 hrs.
Fundamentals of terrestrial atmospheric radiation. Topics include: solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, radiative transfer equation, gaseous absorption, scattering by molecules and particles, band models, transmittance along an inhomogeneous path, and microwave radiative transfer. Prerequisites: MA 238, PH 112 or equivalent or consent of instructor. When Offered: Spring

The "Denialist view" that exists in the public domain is not intended for a technical audience, generally because it doesn't have any technical content.

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #18 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:27pm

muso wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 9:51am:

You're wasting your time DJ. You're dealing with the religiously devout.

I know, but its fun.

From dimwits like progs and longy I can expect it. What disappoints me the most is the supposed educated people in the liberal party pushing similar lies merely for political ends. Rather sickening. Of course, over time, they'll say they were only arguing for "australia not going it alone" or some such rubish rather than denying gw outright. But in the meantime they make no effort to put right the outright deniers BS. Using it simply as a political tool.

Sneaky. Stereotyped by the sneakiest of all. J.W.Howard. "Honest, no really, John" as longy calls him.

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progressiveslol

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #19 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 2:16pm

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:27pm:

muso wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 9:51am:

You're wasting your time DJ. You're dealing with the religiously devout.

I know, but its fun.

From dimwits like progs and longy I can expect it. What disappoints me the most is the supposed educated people in the liberal party pushing similar lies merely for political ends. Rather sickening. Of course, over time, they'll say they were only arguing for "australia not going it alone" or some such rubish rather than denying gw outright. But in the meantime they make no effort to put right the outright deniers BS. Using it simply as a political tool.

Sneaky. Stereotyped by the sneakiest of all. J.W.Howard. "Honest, no really, John" as longy calls him.

Is that what your pastor taught you. Church of climatology is just another scientology. The marriage between the two would be seemless.

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muso

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #20 - Feb 23^rd, 2012 at 8:17am

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 2:16pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:27pm:

muso wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 9:51am:

You're wasting your time DJ. You're dealing with the religiously devout.

I know, but its fun.

From dimwits like progs and longy I can expect it. What disappoints me the most is the supposed educated people in the liberal party pushing similar lies merely for political ends. Rather sickening. Of course, over time, they'll say they were only arguing for "australia not going it alone" or some such rubish rather than denying gw outright. But in the meantime they make no effort to put right the outright deniers BS. Using it simply as a political tool.

Sneaky. Stereotyped by the sneakiest of all. J.W.Howard. "Honest, no really, John" as longy calls him.

Is that what your pastor taught you. Church of climatology is just another scientology. The marriage between the two would be seemless.

I was wrong. There is a coherent counter claim. Here it is:

http://www.cybrator.com/global_warming_lie.html

Tongue

I just found out what method Piers Corbyn uses to foretell the weather:

http://www.predictweather.com/

Quote:

Satellite data is gradually confirming what alternative theorists have been suggesting for years; that the moon controls the weather. Apart from being rather obvious, and so not such a bizarre notion, and it means that with the right mathematical techniques, weather can be predicted way into the future. Stone circles like Stonehenge, said to be at least 4,000 and maybe up to 50,000 years old, were nothing less than weather and climate calculators. The very word 'measurement' is derived from 'moon.' This is not pseudo-astrology, shamanism, wizardry, New Age, not the occult or voodoo but plain basic science and logic

Whoa! - I am not worthy. Tongue

Buy your Weather almanac here. The experts are all wrong. Tongue

No matter what field of science, you will always find people claiming that the experts are wrong, if you look in all the wrong places. That's ok, but the litmus test is the argument that they are putting forward, not the person himself.

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« Last Edit: Feb 23^rd, 2012 at 9:14am by muso »

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chicken_lipsforme

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #21 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:02am

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:02pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 10:20am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:16am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:06am:

Some of you right wing nutters want to drag us back to the dark ages.

I suspect many of you resent academics and would have universities bulldozed and scientists burned at the stake.

you'd do better by not trying to paint everyone who disagrees with you in such terms. if you want to debate the issue then do so on actual science - not opinion.

and you can start with explaining to me why we should trust predictions made using computer models that are woefully inaccurate? the litmus test for every computer model (in every area) is that it should be able to 'reverse-predict' the past using this model. In every single case, the models have failed to do so.

so explain why we should spend so much money and change everything we do on the basis of predictions that have zero chance of being correct?

Youve got your facts wrong again. The computer models have been astonishingly accurate, and there accuracy increases year by year as they are tuned with more up to date data.

That is why we must act now, because the models are telling us a very accurate and nasty future.

well your credibility just crashed big time.

Show me where a publish (in scientific journal) model prediction has proven wrong then ?

That might be difficult seeing as those models are predicting well into the future, and haven't happened yet.
Unless you have a T.A.R.D.I.S of course.
You got one lying around?

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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #22 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:07am

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:02am:

That might be difficult seeing as those models are predicting well into the future, and haven't happened yet.
Unless you have a T.A.R.D.I.S of course.
You got one lying around?

So you are refuting longy's claim that "predictions made using computer models that are woefully inaccurate" is stupid as well ?

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muso

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Re: Flannery is a goose.
Reply #23 - Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 1:10pm

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:02am:

That might be difficult seeing as those models are predicting well into the future, and haven't happened yet.
Unless you have a T.A.R.D.I.S of course.
You got one lying around?

Let's look at some of the older model predictions. We already discussed Hansen in another thread. Even though lacking in the finesse of modern models, It turned out to be surprisingly accurate as long as you don't compare it against a compromised global temperature dataset where high outliers were removed by Roy Spencer. (UAH)

When compared against the NASA GISS temperature record, it stacks up pretty well.

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matty Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11055 East Sydney Gender:	Tim Flannery - liar. Reply #24 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 5:43pm "Even the rain falls won't be enough to fill our dams". What happened? Warragamba dam is now well over 100% filled. PLEASE EXPLAIN.
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adelcrow Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20133 everywhere Gender:	Re: Tim Flannery - liar. Reply #25 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:09pm Crikey..Tea Party tactics used on Tim Flannery..liar liar
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blackadder Gold Member Offline Posts: 1977	Re: Tim Flannery - liar. Reply #26 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:12pm adelcrow wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:09pm: Crikey..Tea Party tactics used on Tim Flannery..liar liar The above from someone allegedly with is it two or three uni degrees?
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stryder Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4545 Sydney Gender:	Re: Tim Flannery - liar. Reply #27 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:15pm Can you believe that this climate changer fearmonger recieves taxpayers dollars, that this government would waste money on this IDIOT,
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adelcrow

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Re: Tim Flannery - liar.
Reply #28 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:17pm

blackadder wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:12pm:

adelcrow wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:09pm:

Crikey..Tea Party tactics used on Tim Flannery..liar liar Grin

The above from someone allegedly with is it two or three uni degrees?

Just repeating liar liar without coming up with the whole story isnt my tactics..
But your right, it sure looks stupid doesnt it?
Kinda makes you wonder how the ultra conservatives fall for it every day of the week. But it works for the Tea Party so its no wonder Abbott copied it.

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Go the Bunnies

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philperth2010 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21097 Perth Gender:	Re: Tim Flannery - liar. Reply #29 - Mar 4^th, 2012 at 6:23pm Once in a lifetime floods prove nothing.....Do people really think these rains will be the norm from now on.....I mean seriously???
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