Australian Politics Forum - There is no tomorrow:

perceptions_now

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #15 - Feb 20^th, 2012 at 3:04pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Did you know that in 1970 -
1) There were less than 4 Billion Humans, now there are over 7 Billion.
2) US Oil Production Peaked, the Global annual rate of discovery of Oil also Peaked and both have steeply declined since then.
3) Nearly all, if not ALL Oil Producing countries have now hit Peak Oil Production.
4) In 1970, a barrel of Oil was less than $2, it is now just over $100 per barrel, after hitting a high of $147 in 2008.

So, given the above, what do you think are the likely scenarios, in respect of -
1) Future Global Population Growth?
2) Future Global Oil Discovery?
3) Future Global Oil Production?
4) Future Global Oil Price?

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It_is_the_Darkness

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #16 - Feb 20^th, 2012 at 4:14pm

People ask if I'm a Greenie?
But I say - "Not quite"
For I believe in Fishing and such of our natural resources.
But I believe the Greenies have to deliver a more 'productive' answer than just saying "No".

Take Fish for example:
We dump ex-military ships in the ocean for 'dive sites' under the excuse 'artificial reef' which cons the public that its all for the benefit of the fish.
So I get it - we destory their natural habitat and replace it with unwanted 'garbage'. Roll Eyes

Also, where are the designs of actual Artificial Reefs that provide maximum stimulation for Aquatic Life to proliferate ...and provide a Fishing Industry with sustainable quality quotas??

Everyone is just saying "No" these days.
I don't blame the oldies for their Environmental/Conservational mistakes.
Its not like they've had any real 'precident' on the matter ...nor have we.

Its easy for us Australians to call Americans 'dumb' - especially when we have them as a precidence but Australia was never around so to speak when America kick started its place in the world - it had to work things out on its own ...mistakes.

I think the World's resources WILL COLLAPSE as too will the population and everything else.
Why?
Because there is one half of the world that needs to learn from that.

Once we know our world is dying, our youth will be gone like a long lost dream.
Only then will we know our Golden Age
...and our finite existence.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #17 - Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:42am

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 1:23pm:

The difference between all those you mention, and global warming, is global warming is actually a consensus view of scientists, and an enormous amount of work has gone into verifying it.

Your predictions are from one or two theorists.

But I'm sure you knew that. Grin

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well I wasn't actually referring to 'global warming' when I said environmental issues......more the running out of resources, running out of food and over population bits....

That being said, a 'consensus' on an untested theory that exists in a vacuum is all that compelling. Despite all the testing that's apparently gone on, this is the very first time that science has had the capacity to make these assumptions.....you can't compare real world measurements with fossil measurements (ice cores, geo-cores, tree rings etc) with any degree of accuracy, because the best the fossil measurements will give you is a range of temperatures with a plus/minus degree of error that is pretty large..

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Doctor Jolly

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #18 - Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:09am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:42am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 1:23pm:

The difference between all those you mention, and global warming, is global warming is actually a consensus view of scientists, and an enormous amount of work has gone into verifying it.

Your predictions are from one or two theorists.

But I'm sure you knew that. Grin

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well I wasn't actually referring to 'global warming' when I said environmental issues......more the running out of resources, running out of food and over population bits....

That being said, a 'consensus' on an untested theory that exists in a vacuum is all that compelling. Despite all the testing that's apparently gone on, this is the very first time that science has had the capacity to make these assumptions.....you can't compare real world measurements with fossil measurements (ice cores, geo-cores, tree rings etc) with any degree of accuracy, because the best the fossil measurements will give you is a range of temperatures with a plus/minus degree of error that is pretty large..

But its the deniers who hang their arguments on these historical data samples. Middle ice age ? Hotter or Cooler 1000's of years ago. They go on like rapid global warming is just normal, because the fossill measurements tell them so. Ignoring, as you say, the error ratio.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #19 - Feb 21^st, 2012 at 7:54pm

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 8:09am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 12:42am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 1:23pm:

The difference between all those you mention, and global warming, is global warming is actually a consensus view of scientists, and an enormous amount of work has gone into verifying it.

Your predictions are from one or two theorists.

But I'm sure you knew that. Grin

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well I wasn't actually referring to 'global warming' when I said environmental issues......more the running out of resources, running out of food and over population bits....

That being said, a 'consensus' on an untested theory that exists in a vacuum is all that compelling. Despite all the testing that's apparently gone on, this is the very first time that science has had the capacity to make these assumptions.....you can't compare real world measurements with fossil measurements (ice cores, geo-cores, tree rings etc) with any degree of accuracy, because the best the fossil measurements will give you is a range of temperatures with a plus/minus degree of error that is pretty large..

But its the deniers who hang their arguments on these historical data samples. Middle ice age ? Hotter or Cooler 1000's of years ago. They go on like rapid global warming is just normal, because the fossill measurements tell them so. Ignoring, as you say, the error ratio.

Which is not an error in it's self...It simply highlights the problem.

IF there had been no warming events before industrialisation, then Co2 would be the definite culprit....but there have been previous events, the question is why is this time different, and how can you say it is, without accurate comparison data??

The temperature increase since 1880 has been around 1 C degree, so the per century rate is 0.8 or 0.9 C.......that's ok, I'm not arguing with that, but there's no way to say if the rate of increase during the MWP was lower (or the same, or even higher), after all, this IS the first time we've had accurate daily/yearly/decadal temperature readings.

DRAH (for one) constantly refers to the 'rate of change', which would be the best method of comparison, if we had any equal records to compare it to....but just mentioning rate of change, without any indication of the realtionship to earlier rates of change is pointless, if not counterproductive...

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Postmodern Trendoid III

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #20 - Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

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It_is_the_Darkness

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #21 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 7:15am

Every Industry has its 'Fear Factor'.
The Military would say the threat of a Comet hitting the planet to justify a big gun on the moon (not that it would ever point back at earth like a Death Star Huh

)
The Medical would say the threat of Pollution leads to an ill health planet.
Religion with God.
Sailors with monsters of the deep
Astronomers with Aliens.
...and so on.

Humanity will die.
The world will end.
But not tomorrow.

I think Humanity has just turned 21 years today.
Not bad. Still got a fair way to go. Wink

Some of us will venture out from the planet to find more life, etc.
Others will stay to improve the one we originally have.

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Grey

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #22 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:25pm

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

This thread topic is not 'global warming'. It's the future prospects stemming from continued exponential growth. Do we have 'exponential growth deniers' ? Are they the same people?

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perceptions_now

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #23 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:38pm

Grey wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:25pm:

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

This thread topic is not 'global warming'. It's the future prospects stemming from continued exponential growth. Do we have 'exponential growth deniers' ? Are they the same people?

I think that is likely!

Just to reiterate, from an earlier post, did any of you "exponential growth deniers" know that in 1970 -
1) There were less than 4 Billion Humans, now there are over 7 Billion.
2) US Oil Production Peaked, the Global annual rate of discovery of Oil also Peaked and both have steeply declined since then.
3) Nearly all, if not ALL Oil Producing countries have now hit Peak Oil Production.
4) In 1970, a barrel of Oil was less than $2, it is now just over $100 per barrel, after hitting a high of $147 in 2008.

So, given the above, what do you think are the likely scenarios, in respect of -
1) Future Global Population Growth?
2) Future Global Oil Discovery?
3) Future Global Oil Production?
4) Future Global Oil Price?

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Postmodern Trendoid III

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #24 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:50pm

Grey wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:25pm:

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

This thread topic is not 'global warming'. It's the future prospects stemming from continued exponential growth. Do we have 'exponential growth deniers' ? Are they the same people?

Yes I know we can't have infinite growth with finite resources. But I believe recycling will become more and more popular and that new technologies will be created to recycle more and more things.

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perceptions_now

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #25 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 2:08pm

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:50pm:

Grey wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:25pm:

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

This thread topic is not 'global warming'. It's the future prospects stemming from continued exponential growth. Do we have 'exponential growth deniers' ? Are they the same people?

Yes I know we can't have infinite growth with finite resources. But I believe recycling will become more and more popular and that new technologies will be created to recycle more and more things.

Just wondering, did you watch the video that Grey put up at the start of this thread?

[/quote]

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gizmo_2655

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #26 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 2:09pm

Grey wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:25pm:

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

This thread topic is not 'global warming'. It's the future prospects stemming from continued exponential growth. Do we have 'exponential growth deniers' ? Are they the same people?

I know Grey, nothing in my post, or destroyer's response, was about 'global warming'....

Doc Jolly was the one who mentioned GW, I just answered his comments...

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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It_is_the_Darkness

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #27 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 5:41pm

OK THEN.
ONE WORD about such 'growth'.

= SUPERNOVA

and we all know what remains after that. Wink

x20 Rabbits are let loose in a large expanse of land that is securely fenced. It doesn't take long before the Rabbit population grows into thousands. Then the 'resources' run out and BOOM - the Rabbit Population collapses.
This is to be expected.
The amazing thing about this is that after the collapse.
The Rabbit Population grows again but keeps a respectable rate and number that doesn't put a strain on the resources.

Animals are amazing,.

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perceptions_now

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #28 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 10:27pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 2:09pm:

Grey wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 1:25pm:

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 21^st, 2012 at 9:48pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Well said.
Doomsday scenarios have been around for thousands of years.
This is just the latest.

This thread topic is not 'global warming'. It's the future prospects stemming from continued exponential growth. Do we have 'exponential growth deniers' ? Are they the same people?

I know Grey, nothing in my post, or destroyer's response, was about 'global warming'....

Doc Jolly was the one who mentioned GW, I just answered his comments...

Just a small correction there Gizmo, it was actually you who first introduced the Environment (although admitedly mis-splelled), on the very first post after Grey's initial post!

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 7:01am:

Interesting video Grey......

Although it seems to be the standard' whiney
eivronnutter
'back to the cave' philosophy that's been around since the 1960's....

I did expect better of you....

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perceptions_now

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Re: There is no tomorrow:
Reply #29 - Feb 22^nd, 2012 at 10:41pm

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 3:04pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 20^th, 2012 at 12:52pm:

I guess I'm a little cynical about these sorts of things...

After all, I've been through the 'only an inch of topsoil' famine caused extinction of humanity by 1970 (1975, 1980, oh wait, 1990)

And the 'only enough oil for 3 months' things in 1973, 1979, 1985, 1995, 2001 etc etc...

And my parents, grandparents and uncles/aunts have told me about the various 'end of the world, next Thursday' things from their childhoods, although, those were usually due to the 'decay' of contemporary society (votes for women was going to cause it, so was promiscuity, splitting the atom, the invention of motorcars, the decline in church attendance, the approaching millennium (1900) and pretty much everything else).....

It seems there are ALWAYS groups around, predicting the fall of man.....since the 50's it's been environmental, rather than the older 'wrath of god' type though....

About the only common thread is, all the predictions have failed, and many have failed miserably...

Did you know that in 1970 -
1) There were less than 4 Billion Humans, now there are over 7 Billion.
2) US Oil Production Peaked, the Global annual rate of discovery of Oil also Peaked and both have steeply declined since then.
3) Nearly all, if not ALL Oil Producing countries have now hit Peak Oil Production.
4) In 1970, a barrel of Oil was less than $2, it is now just over $100 per barrel, after hitting a high of $147 in 2008.

So, given the above, what do you think are the likely scenarios, in respect of -
1) Future Global Population Growth?
2) Future Global Oil Discovery?
3) Future Global Oil Production?
4) Future Global Oil Price?

I note that the Ostrich's haven't ventured forth with any thoughts on the Future of Global -
1) Population Growth?
2) Oil Discovery?
3) Oil Production?
4) Oil Price?

Well let me confirm that the answers are -
1) Down
2) Down
3) Down
4) Up

And, as a result, the Global Future of the following will be -
1) Demand for Goods & Services - DOWN
2) Economic Growth - DOWN
3) Unemployment - UP

And, all of that is without any general AUS-terity programs!

You don't want to know what would happen, IF any general AUS-terity programs were implemented!

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