The battle lines are being drawn as reports emerged that senior Labor MPs were warning Kevin Rudd supporters to back embattled Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

Speculation has mounted that senior MPs were trying to shore up support for Ms Gillard, as the nervous wait continues to find out just what Mr Rudd will do.

An MP speaking to a News Limited newspaper revealed that MPs were now being openly canvassed.

"A lot of people have definitely been deployed to start speaking to the troops on behalf of the PM. There were conversations happening all over Parliament House," the MP said.

Mr Rudd has consistently been ahead of Ms Gillard in preferred Prime Minister polls, and some within the Labor party believe a change back to the former leader is the only way to turn around a government under huge pressure.

One MP told Fairfax they had to kill off any potential challenge now before it was too late.

"I don't want them to be under any illusion about how bad it was and how bad it will be," the minister said anonymously.

"If we don't start doing this, it will get a bigger head of steam than it already has."

One of the most vocal supporters for Ms Gillard, Attorney General Nicola Roxon, has warned returning to Mr Rudd would be a disaster for the party.

"Nicola was telling anyone who would listen that Rudd would be a disaster," one MP told News Limited. "It seemed to me that panic has set in, and they know Gillard is in trouble."
However it is believed that even if Mr Rudd challenged, he wouldn't have the numbers to regain the Prime Ministership.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/12945325/giilard-canvasses-numbers-as-showdown-looms

watching some experts on TV one said that if their is a spill..and Kev loses he will have to resign straight away.. dont understand why.. maybe its because he has said he will always be a threat...

Just so long as these fights continue to kill off more labor votes.

From news.com.au

SENIOR cabinet ministers have been deployed to lobby MPs to stick with Julia Gillard - the clearest sign yet that panic has set in and planning is under way for a showdown with Kevin Rudd.

Several Labor MPs confirmed that ministers loyal to the PM - including Attorney-General Nicola Roxon - had been openly canvassing numbers for Ms Gillard this week in Parliament, warning backbenchers that a return to Mr Rudd would destroy the party.

The push to shore up Ms Gillard's numbers occurred over Wednesday and Thursday following one of the PM's worst weeks as leader.

One MP who was lobbied said: "A lot of people have definitely been deployed to start speaking to the troops on behalf of the PM. There were conversations happening all over Parliament House."

Sources close to Mr Rudd yesterday signalled that "events were moving swiftly" and that a challenge could come sooner rather than later.

"From here on in, anything is possible," a senior MP said.

At least two MPs were heard openly telling colleagues in the corridors that change had to happen.

"It was very brazen, and they didn't seem to care who heard them," one MP said.

Ms Roxon, a member of the Victorian Right, which includes Gillard backers such as Bill Shorten, spoke to several Victorian MPs and warned them against thinking about voting for Mr Rudd in a spill.

"Nicola was telling anyone who would listen that Rudd would be a disaster," one MP said. "It seemed to me that panic has set in, and they know Gillard is in trouble."

The next sitting week of Parliament in two weeks could be critical, with members of Mr Rudd's camp claiming a growing list of MPs privately declaring support.

However, one senior minister loyal to Ms Gillard said Mr Rudd would not have the numbers to succeed. "If he challenged now he would lose," the minister said.

Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, concerned NSW MPs in particular had lost confidence in Ms Gillard, is also reported to have started counting numbers for her.

The NSW Right, the largest single bloc of votes with 18 MPs, has split, with a majority now behind Mr Rudd.

Party Secretary Sam Dastyari has maintained that the position of the NSW party machine was one of support for Ms Gillard.

It is unlikely it would actively direct NSW MPs how to vote if it came to a challenge.

Mr Rudd is this weekend campaigning in Queensland for Labor premier Anna Bligh.

So good to see. How funny and spectacular would it be to see Rudd back as PM, and that arrogant, lying bitch getting her comeuppance. Rudd reclaiming leadership is imment, Gillard just embarrasses herself and the Labor party more each week. Just when you think that it cannot possibly become worse than already is, it does. Expect Rudd to be PM again by the 6th-10th of March.

IMO, Labor is toast if they stick with the Red Dalek.

At least with Rudd, they may have a chance, especially
if he has used his ousting as a learning-experience.

He'd need to put the cleaners through the current Cabinet
and Caucus, and ruthlessly crush any dissent, but a
revitalised, Rudd-led Labor govt is the best option currently
available to us.

Julia is toxic, and Abbott and his crew are no option at
all. I do not wish us to return to the dark days of the
late 70s-early 80s.

And as for the Greens......

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 18^th, 2012 at 9:24am:

He CAN'T/WON'T do ANYTHING
He DOESN'T have the NUMBERS

matty wrote on Feb 18^th, 2012 at 6:17pm:



Matty, you've made many insightful, witty, relevant and
incisive comments since you've been here....

Unfortunately, that wasn't one of 'em.....

Kat wrote on Feb 18^th, 2012 at 7:11pm:


Yes, Matty has many insights, but he usually doesn't post them.

As if Rudd's coming back. Labor had one falling on their sword chance, and they've used it up. Personally, I can't see what's wrong with Gillard. Things are going fine. Gillard's got one problem.

The electorate hate her. They hate her for no other reason than they hate her. They'd hate her if she didn't say:

THERE WILL BE NO CARBON TAX UNDER A GOVERNMENT I LEAD.

They'd hate her if she didn't assasinate Rudd. They hated him too, remember?

So Gillard will go, but it will be the electorate that finish her off. In the end, Labor won't take the risk. And why would Rudd? Apart from sheer vanity, what's in it for him? Wouldn't his legacy be better as a martyr than a loser?

I can't see Labor making the same mistake twice. I know the back benchers are itchy, but the long-term damage to Labor will be far worse if they put Rudd back in. And we all know that with Rudd, they'll lose anyway.

Labor can't win. All Gillard can do now is keep the chair warm for Abbott. As sad and tawdry as this is, as much as it sh!ts all over the very notion of democracy in this country, this is destiny. Short of a real assasination, it's our fate to be led by a dull ideologue with no policies and no vision.

This isn't to say that Abbott is not creative. But let's be honest, we all know very little about Abbott. We don't know what he'll do, and we have absolutely no idea what he stands for. Abbott is a shapeshifter with the sole ambition of getting elected. Apart from his dogged loyalty to mining companies, the fossil lobbies and the church, we don't know where he stands.

Rudd was a very indecisive PM. In the face of huge unpopularity, Gillard is able to delgate, consult and get things done. In the end, this is the job of leaders. The choices are put on the plate in front of you, and I doubt you can ever tell where they'll take you.

You can end up like Howard, or you can end up like Gillard. The winds that take you there are fickle, but the forces that blow those winds are heavy.

Big mining, the business lobbies, News Ltd, and the ones we don't even know about. These are the forces that are driving this country, and as dark as it is, these are the forces that will determine our destiny.