Australian Politics Forum - Marginal Seats

Maqqa

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14% - that low?!

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Marginal Seats
Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:21pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_e...

You would expect Coalition members who hold marginal seats are feeling pretty good about themselves right now

Non-Coalition marginal seat members are probably sh!tting themselves for the last 12 months

Interesting to not that anything under 58% is considered marginal. Given the ALP has only 31% primaries Grin

this should be higher

The other interesting thing is Rudd holds a 58% margin and is considered "Fairly Safe" with all other QLD seats considered marginal.

If the Carbon Tax hits - QLD are going to savage Rudd/Gillard and his mob

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« Last Edit: Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:27pm by Maqqa »

Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number

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____

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #1 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:48pm

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:21pm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_e...

You would expect Coalition members who hold marginal seats are feeling pretty good about themselves right now

Non-Coalition marginal seat members are probably sh!tting themselves for the last 12 months

Interesting to not that anything under 58% is considered marginal. Given the ALP has only 31% primaries Grin

this should be higher

The other interesting thing is Rudd holds a 58% margin and is considered "Fairly Safe" with all other QLD seats considered marginal.

If the Carbon Tax hits - QLD are going to savage Rudd/Gillard and his mob

Bit rude implying Gillard is a bloke.

As for Hard Righters feeling safe ... thats the way we like it ... makes toppling them, all the more fun.

i.e remember this bloke :

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #2 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:51pm

____ wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:48pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:21pm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_e...

You would expect Coalition members who hold marginal seats are feeling pretty good about themselves right now

Non-Coalition marginal seat members are probably sh!tting themselves for the last 12 months

Interesting to not that anything under 58% is considered marginal. Given the ALP has only 31% primaries Grin

this should be higher

The other interesting thing is Rudd holds a 58% margin and is considered "Fairly Safe" with all other QLD seats considered marginal.

If the Carbon Tax hits - QLD are going to savage Rudd/Gillard and his mob

Bit rude implying Gillard is a bloke.

As for Hard Righters feeling safe ... thats the way we like it ... makes toppling them, all the more fun.

i.e remember this bloke :

True, Julia Gillard is quite probably a very nice woman...
But not as a PM...although that's nothing to do with her personal life...

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cods

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #3 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 4:37pm

which is the REAL JULIA? giz... do you know..

I am begininng to think we have more than two,

she doesnt come across as doing the hard yards.. give maggie her due dont recall her backing away from the hard questions..

here we have her telling us she has had to make some HARD DECISIONS...yet when it comes to a hard question she nowhere in sight...

get real.

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____

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #4 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 5:43pm

cods wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 4:37pm:

which is the REAL JULIA? giz... do you know..

I am begininng to think we have more than two,

she doesnt come across as doing the hard yards.. give maggie her due dont recall her backing away from the hard questions..

here we have her telling us she has had to make some HARD DECISIONS...yet when it comes to a hard question she nowhere in sight...

get real.

is this similar to gutless Abbott backtracking on Workchoices ~ Nuclear ~ Coal Seam Gas ~ Punishing the Unemployed ~ Anti Abortion and so on.

Are there two lame duck hard Right Abbotts?

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matty Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11055 East Sydney Gender:	Re: Marginal Seats Reply #5 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:34pm I, for one, cannot wait to see the slew of Labor MPs in marginal seats go down the gurgler. Perrett, O'Neil, Smyth and Bradbury will be good, but I will salivate when Swan and Saffin go.
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longweekend58

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #6 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:49pm

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:34pm:

I, for one, cannot wait to see the slew of Labor MPs in marginal seats go down the gurgler. Perrett, O'Neil, Smyth and Bradbury will be good, but I will salivate when Swan and Saffin go.

Losing swan wil be gorgeous to watch. Losing adam bant will be fabulous but my favoutie will be watching Oakeshott going down behind a record swing against him. And I hope Gillards seet goes to preferences as well.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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matty

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #7 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:05pm

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:49pm:

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:34pm:

I, for one, cannot wait to see the slew of Labor MPs in marginal seats go down the gurgler. Perrett, O'Neil, Smyth and Bradbury will be good, but I will salivate when Swan and Saffin go.

Losing swan wil be gorgeous to watch. Losing adam bant will be fabulous but my favoutie will be watching Oakeshott going down behind a record swing against him. And I hope Gillards seet goes to preferences as well.

Too right longy! Swan and Saffin will be glorious, but Oakeshott will be something far greater. He probably still thinks that he's in with a chance. Do you think that there's any chance of Gillard losing? She won with a 72-28 2PP, but polling mid last year showed that it's now 58-42.

Labor also looks like losing stalwarts like Werriwa, Kingsford Smith and Lingiari.

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BILL SHORTEN WILL NEVER BE PM!!!!

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Maqqa

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14% - that low?!

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #8 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?

Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

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Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number

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matty

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #9 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:07pm

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?

Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

Is Smith only on 55.88% I didn't know that. He will probably lose then, as well.

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BILL SHORTEN WILL NEVER BE PM!!!!

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bomen_guy

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #10 - Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:58pm

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?

Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

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THE WORST LABOR GOVERNMENT IS 100% BETTER THEN THE BEST LIBERAL GOVERNMENT

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matty

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #11 - Feb 7^th, 2012 at 6:03am

bomen_guy wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:58pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?

Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

How can they buy the election? Roll Eyes

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BILL SHORTEN WILL NEVER BE PM!!!!

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Kat

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #12 - Feb 7^th, 2012 at 6:20am

matty wrote on Feb 7^th, 2012 at 6:03am:

bomen_guy wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:58pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?

Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

How can they buy the election? Roll Eyes

They can't.

But they CAN and DO buy politicians.

And THAT'S what needs to be stopped.

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Maqqa

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14% - that low?!

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Re: Marginal Seats
Reply #13 - Feb 7^th, 2012 at 7:00am

bomen_guy wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:58pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?

Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

How do you figure this would happen?

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Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number

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