Australian Politics Forum - Insurers say climate change is real, expensive

gizmo_2655

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #45 - Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:04pm

Gist wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:43pm:

Oh for the gods sake....IF the poles heat up by 10 degrees, and the equator heats up by 5 degrees wouldn't that make more difference than if the poles heats up by 10 degrees and the equator heats by by 8 degrees???

And for the umpteenth time - YES! But

WHY

WOULD

THAT

HAPPEN??

BECAUSE that's WHAT has Happened in the PAST...

According to assorted various 'climate scientists'....the Little Ice Age ONLY affected Europe...(so a cooling event happened ONLY in a sub tropical zone) and the Medieval Warm Period also ONLY happened in Europe...

So that's TWO climate events that were 'local' in effect...in other words..Europe warmed and cooled ( at various times ) without affecting the Equatorial region..

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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Gist Gold Member Offline I am not a sock, I am a human being! Posts: 5476	Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive Reply #46 - Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:41pm Finally, an answer!! I knew we'd get there eventually.
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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive Reply #47 - Jan 9^th, 2012 at 11:19pm Gist wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:41pm: Finally, an answer!! I knew we'd get there eventually. We'd have got there ages ago...It's whatt I've been saying ages ago..
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BatteriesNotIncluded

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people died for this!

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #48 - Jan 11^th, 2012 at 8:15pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:04pm:

Gist wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:43pm:

Oh for the gods sake....IF the poles heat up by 10 degrees, and the equator heats up by 5 degrees wouldn't that make more difference than if the poles heats up by 10 degrees and the equator heats by by 8 degrees???

And for the umpteenth time - YES! But

WHY

WOULD

THAT

HAPPEN??

BECAUSE that's WHAT has Happened in the PAST...

According to assorted various 'climate scientists'....the Little Ice Age ONLY affected Europe...(so a cooling event happened ONLY in a sub tropical zone) and the Medieval Warm Period also ONLY happened in Europe...

So that's TWO climate events that were 'local' in effect...in other words..Europe warmed and cooled ( at various times ) without affecting the Equatorial region..

Tell me, is that the only thing that has happened in the past or are there conceivably more things that have happened in the past??

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #49 - Jan 11^th, 2012 at 10:55pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 11^th, 2012 at 8:15pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:04pm:

Gist wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:43pm:

Oh for the gods sake....IF the poles heat up by 10 degrees, and the equator heats up by 5 degrees wouldn't that make more difference than if the poles heats up by 10 degrees and the equator heats by by 8 degrees???

And for the umpteenth time - YES! But

WHY

WOULD

THAT

HAPPEN??

BECAUSE that's WHAT has Happened in the PAST...

According to assorted various 'climate scientists'....the Little Ice Age ONLY affected Europe...(so a cooling event happened ONLY in a sub tropical zone) and the Medieval Warm Period also ONLY happened in Europe...

So that's TWO climate events that were 'local' in effect...in other words..Europe warmed and cooled ( at various times ) without affecting the Equatorial region..

Tell me, is that the only thing that has happened in the past or are there conceivably more things that have happened in the past??

Sure there are more things that have happened in the past...

Warmings, Ice Ages, sea level rises, sea level falls, continental drift, earthquakes, cyclones, volcanic eruptions, life 'blooms', mass extinctions, migrations, and all sorts of stuff, all before mankind learned to walk upright...

If you re a little more specific about what sort of things, I'd give a more detailed answer

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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people died for this!

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #50 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 12:40am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 11^th, 2012 at 10:55pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 11^th, 2012 at 8:15pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:04pm:

Gist wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 9:43pm:

Oh for the gods sake....IF the poles heat up by 10 degrees, and the equator heats up by 5 degrees wouldn't that make more difference than if the poles heats up by 10 degrees and the equator heats by by 8 degrees???

And for the umpteenth time - YES! But

WHY

WOULD

THAT

HAPPEN??

BECAUSE that's WHAT has Happened in the PAST...

According to assorted various 'climate scientists'....the Little Ice Age ONLY affected Europe...(so a cooling event happened ONLY in a sub tropical zone) and the Medieval Warm Period also ONLY happened in Europe...

So that's TWO climate events that were 'local' in effect...in other words..Europe warmed and cooled ( at various times ) without affecting the Equatorial region..

Tell me, is that the only thing that has happened in the past or are there conceivably more things that have happened in the past??

Sure there are more things that have happened in the past...

Warmings, Ice Ages, sea level rises, sea level falls, continental drift, earthquakes, cyclones, volcanic eruptions, life 'blooms', mass extinctions, migrations, and all sorts of stuff, all before mankind learned to walk upright...

If you re a little more specific about what sort of things, I'd give a more detailed answer

Dood, I'm just saying you're an extremist!

First you think you've picked

the

pattern but then you admit that you can't possibly have done any such thing!

Shocked

You're a dreamer hoping for an endless conversation! Grin

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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Gist Gold Member Offline I am not a sock, I am a human being! Posts: 5476	Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive Reply #51 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:11pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 13^th, 2012 at 12:40am: Dood, I'm just saying you're an extremist! First you think you've picked the pattern but then you admit that you can't possibly have done any such thing! You're a dreamer hoping for an endless conversation! Death has got you there gizmo!
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muso

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #52 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:41pm

Death mate, you can be very inarticulate at times, but I understand what you're trying to say. Roll Eyes

What he's trying to say is that there were other causes for these past events.

Let's say we have a mass murderer on an island, and he kills x people, what you're saying is akin to "It might not have been murder. People die all the time". Well of course people have died in the past, but when compelling evidence shows that they were murdered, then you need to take notice.

By the same token, you can say that the world has warmed in the past. Well of course it has, and of course there was a time when CO2 levels have been greater than today or global temperatures were higher.

It's different strokes though. In the recent past, most of the changes have been caused by slow predictable changes in the Earth's orbit, which give us glaciations roughly every 100,000 years, and in the early part of the Quaternary, these occurred every 40,000 years. There are also a number of shorter duration cycles, for example the roughly 11.1 year Solar cycle (which has much less effect)

The changes in the last 200 years, and particularly the last 50 years don't have any precedent in those patterns of the recent past. In particular, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is now at its highest level in 15-20 million years, and it's pretty obvious where it came from.

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« Last Edit: Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:47pm by muso »

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #53 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:55pm

muso wrote on Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:41pm:

Death mate, you can be very inarticulate at times, but I understand what you're trying to say. Roll Eyes

What he's trying to say is that there were other causes for these past events.

Let's say we have a mass murderer on an island, and he kills x people, what you're saying is akin to "It might not have been murder. People die all the time". Well of course people have died in the past, but when the evidence shows that they were murdered, then you need to take notice.

By the same token, you can say that the world has warmed in the past. Well of course it has, and of course there was a time when CO2 levels have been greater than today or global temperatures were higher.

It's differnt strokes though. In the recent past, most of the changes have been caused by slow predictable changes in the Earth's orbit, which give us glaciations roughly every 100,000 years, and in the early part of the Quaternary, these occurred every 40,000 years. There are also a number of shorter duration cycles, for example the roughly 11.1 year Solar cycle (which has much less effect)

The changes in the last 200 years, and particularly the last 50 years don't have any precedent in those patterns of the recent past. In particular, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is now at its highest level in 15-20 million years, and it's pretty obvious where it came from.

INTERNET FORUMS ARE WAR AND I PLAY TO KILL! Cry

THE CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS CAN'T ACCEPT THAT THE RATE OF CHANGE OF CO2 IS THE SCARY THING!

...they just want to pretend the conversation is about something else(deflection) going round and round in circles for a million pages or more and then saying sorry that they wasted your time!

... so what's new? People are scared of change so it's all completely organic: I just like to make my points !!

Busines is business, hey!

Con-artists like to try putting their hand down your pants but run when they realise you're no victim!

I like to run 'em into the ground! PERSISTENCE HUNTING THEY CALL IT!!

Cheesy

You can't make an omelette without cracking a few skulls! Grin

The rate of change of CO2 is CONSPICUOUS CONSUMPTIONS REAR END: Cheesy

PEOPLE HAVE TO WAKE UP TOT HIS BASIC TRUTH AND IF IT MEANS MAKING A FEW SILVER SPOONERS CRY THEN SO WHAT!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive Reply #54 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:59pm Well if you run into some of those con artists, just make a stand and say No.
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Gist

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #55 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 6:33pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:04pm:

BECAUSE that's WHAT has Happened in the PAST...

According to assorted various 'climate scientists'....the Little Ice Age ONLY affected Europe...(so a cooling event happened ONLY in a sub tropical zone) and the Medieval Warm Period also ONLY happened in Europe...

So that's TWO climate events that were 'local' in effect...in other words..Europe warmed and cooled ( at various times ) without affecting the Equatorial region..

I've been avoiding this thread because ... well, just don't have the time really. But anyway, here goes...

There are several problems with your suggestion gizmo:

Just who are these assorted several 'climate scientists' of which you speak? Because these guys seem to think it was global after studying arctic and antarctic ice sheet samples. But granted, that's an old study and perhaps things have moved on since then
So lets assume you're correct and the little ice age was a localised event affecting Europe only. Problem is that with Europe cooling, the pressure differential between Europe and the arctic reduces. But the pressure differential between Europe and the equator increases by exactly the same amount. So probably no potential to reduce storm frequency/intensity from that effect.
The next problem is that there would then be pressure differentials between Europe and Asia, Europe and North America. These have the potential to create/intensify storms. So the number/intensity of storms could be expected to increase, not decrease
But if there is a localised event, where is the evidence? And where is the event? All the indications I've read are that it is global

A localised warming would have exactly the same problems as listed.

So while there may (or may not) have been localised events in the past, it doesn't change your problem - you've not shown that either localised or global warming/cooling will reduce the incidence of storms.

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"When our military goes to war it should be for purposes and objectives clearly in Australia’s interests, not merely because the Americans want some company" - Malcolm Fraser (2012 Whitlam Oration)

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #56 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 9:34pm

Gist wrote on Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:11pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 13^th, 2012 at 12:40am:

Dood, I'm just saying you're an extremist!

First you think you've picked

the

pattern but then you admit that you can't possibly have done any such thing!

Shocked

You're a dreamer hoping for an endless conversation! Grin

Death has got you there gizmo!

No he hasn't Gist, I initially limited my response about what had happened in the past to climate changes, since that was the topic of this thread......then he made a random comment about "is that the only thing that has happened in the past or are there conceivably more things that have happened in the past??" without being anymore specific than that.....
It's like asking someone to list EVERYTHING that happened today...

Alternatively I could have just posted this:
"Our whole universe was in a hot dense state,
Then nearly fourteen billion years ago expansion started. Wait...
The Earth began to cool,
The autotrophs began to drool,
Neanderthals developed tools,
We built a wall (we built the pyramids),
Math, science, history, unraveling the mysteries,
That all started with the big bang!

"Since the dawn of man" is really not that long,
As every galaxy was formed in less time than it takes to sing this song.
A fraction of a second and the elements were made.
The bipeds stood up straight,
The dinosaurs all met their fate,
They tried to leap but they were late
And they all died (they froze their asses off)
The oceans and pangea
See ya wouldn't wanna be ya
Set in motion by the same big bang!

It all started with the big BANG!

It's expanding ever outward but one day
It will cause the stars to go the other way,
Collapsing ever inward, we won't be here, it wont be hurt
Our best and brightest figure that it'll make an even bigger bang!

Australopithecus would really have been sick of us
Debating out while here they're catching deer (we're catching viruses)
Religion or astronomy, Encarta, Deuteronomy
It all started with the big bang!

Music and mythology, Einstein and astrology
It all started with the big bang!
It all started with the big BANG!"

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« Last Edit: Jan 13^th, 2012 at 10:23pm by gizmo_2655 »

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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gizmo_2655

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Posts: 16010
South West NSW
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Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive
Reply #57 - Jan 13^th, 2012 at 9:44pm

Gist wrote on Jan 13^th, 2012 at 6:33pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 9^th, 2012 at 10:04pm:

BECAUSE that's WHAT has Happened in the PAST...

According to assorted various 'climate scientists'....the Little Ice Age ONLY affected Europe...(so a cooling event happened ONLY in a sub tropical zone) and the Medieval Warm Period also ONLY happened in Europe...

So that's TWO climate events that were 'local' in effect...in other words..Europe warmed and cooled ( at various times ) without affecting the Equatorial region..

I've been avoiding this thread because ... well, just don't have the time really. But anyway, here goes...

There are several problems with your suggestion gizmo:

Just who are these assorted several 'climate scientists' of which you speak? Because these guys seem to think it was global after studying arctic and antarctic ice sheet samples. But granted, that's an old study and perhaps things have moved on since then
So lets assume you're correct and the little ice age was a localised event affecting Europe only. Problem is that with Europe cooling, the pressure differential between Europe and the arctic reduces. But the pressure differential between Europe and the equator increases by exactly the same amount. So probably no potential to reduce storm frequency/intensity from that effect.
The next problem is that there would then be pressure differentials between Europe and Asia, Europe and North America. These have the potential to create/intensify storms. So the number/intensity of storms could be expected to increase, not decrease
But if there is a localised event, where is the evidence? And where is the event? All the indications I've read are that it is global

A localised warming would have exactly the same problems as listed.

So while there may (or may not) have been localised events in the past, it doesn't change your problem - you've not shown that either localised or global warming/cooling will reduce the incidence of storms.

"Esper et al. (2002), Bradley et al. (2003a), Jones and Mann (2004), D’Arrigo et al. (2006). The IPCC concluded the warmest period prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100...The evidence currently available indicates that NH mean temperatures during medieval times (950–1100) were indeed warm in a 2-kyr context and even warmer in relation to the less sparse but still limited evidence of widespread average cool conditions in the 17th century (Osborn and Briffa, 2006). However, the evidence is not sufficient to support a conclusion that hemispheric mean temperatures were as warm, or the extent of warm regions as expansive, as those in the 20th century as a whole, during any period in medieval times (Jones et al., 2001; Bradley et al., 2003a,b; Osborn and Briffa, 2006)."

The aforementioned scientists, (mainly Mann, Jones and Briffa) all maintained that both the MWP and the LIA were local European phenomena, up until about 2005, when that idea was shown to be incorrect...

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Insurers say climate change is real, expensive Reply #58 - Jan 14^th, 2012 at 11:56pm muso wrote on Jan 13^th, 2012 at 2:59pm: Well if you run into some of those con artists, just make a stand and say No. i MAKE THEM SEE BLOOD! i UNDERSTAND LIFE YOU SEE!!
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged