progressiveslol wrote on Nov 24^th, 2011 at 10:59am:


But why would you get rid of a member when you are only 1 bi-election away from government?.  Now they are 2 bi-elections which is as good as 2 years away from a crack at government.

Doctor Jolly wrote on Nov 24^th, 2011 at 11:18am:

Why would you stick with someone who is a traitor.

It can't be overstated, the significance of this. The potential impact it could have.

If Labor are doing what I think they're doing, which they are, they're sending Tony Abbott to the proverbial grave.

olde.sault wrote on Nov 24^th, 2011 at 11:47am:

If it gives the ALP a two vote majority it does.

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AS far as game changers go, they don't come much bigger. The resignation of Harry Jenkins as Speaker of the Parliament this morning has fundamentally shifted the rocky ground that Julia Gillard has had to traverse for the past year.
Liberal MP Peter Slipper will take the chair, giving the government an extra number in the lower house and the government vital breathing space. Slipper will resign as a member of the Liberal Party giving Labor a one seat lead in terms of raw numbers over the Coalition.

It gives Labor a two seat buffer when it comes to voting in the house.

What does this mean?

Most importantly, it has neutered Andrew Wilkie, the Tasmanian Independent who has held a gun to the government's head for the past 12 months over his pokie reforms.

Wilkie has threatened to withdraw his support if the Government doesn't pass his legislation for mandatory precommitment by May next year.

That threat has now become a hollow one, as his power to bring down the government with a single vote has been removed.

.
"We can now tell him to go and jump," said one Labor MP.
The pokie reforms, in their current form, have now been removed from the table and with them, one of the potential triggers for Labor MPs to move against Gillard's leadership.

Gillard may also now be able to get her private health insurance bill through parliament, rescuing the budget with then $2 billion it will save the government.

It also changes the relationship with the Greens. Adam Bandt has become a thorn in Gillard's side, constantly seeking to amend legislation, more often simply to grandstand.

Gillard will no longer have to be so accommodating of the Greens' silly demands - at least in the lower house.

Finally, it raises the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle for Gillard.

Jenkins has just taken. $100,000 haircut in salary. It is hard to believe that he has not been offered something in return for temporarily saving the Government's hide. We could expect one by the end of the year or early next.

Of course, the change in numbers in the lower house makes it easier for Kevin Rudd should he mount a challenge to Gillard. He would assume support from Queensland independent Bob Katter. He now only needs one more to ensure a Rudd comeback didn't result in a collapse of the government.

It is interesting to note that Rudd met with Slipper only last week in his seat - to chew the fat. Some are suggesting the Jenkins resignation has the hallmarks of Rudd's meddling. Jenkins is a Leftie and close to the man doing Rudd's numbers, Allan Griffin.

While the resignation of Jenkins appears to have come as a shock to the Coalition, it has not been a surprise to those in the Labor Party who have been close to the action.
When Jenkins took the speakership last year, he was told by Gillard that it was the second best option for the Government. If Labor could have forced a Coalition MP to take the job, it would have.

They have been quietly working away on Slipper since the election.

Those talks have been elevated over the past two weeks.

With Slipper's own preselection under threat, he had finally had enough of Tony Abbott's lack of support and agreed to take the job of speaker if Jenkins resigned.

Far from being a government in turmoil, as Abbott has now tried to portray through the loss of the speaker, it is now a government with breathing space.
It is in fact Abbott's leadership which will come into sharp focus. His promise to his party room of trying to force an election has just become a lot harder.

These are the new dynamics of the new hung parliament

progressiveslol wrote on Nov 24^th, 2011 at 11:20am:


What did he do to justify the whole opposition throwing away any chance of government for 2 years ?