Australian Politics Forum - Arctic Ice continues to shrink

BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #600 - Aug 13^th, 2012 at 4:51pm

namnugenot wrote on Aug 13^th, 2012 at 3:07pm:

Upton Sinclair wrote on Aug 13^th, 2012 at 1:33pm:

namnugenot wrote on Aug 13^th, 2012 at 8:50am:

N ow there's a graph that's doesn't distort the true picture...not.

So THIS is why people like you get called deniers. You are shown evidence and you deny it. Nothing to see here folks!

Evidence?...it's cringeworthy even by your standards.

NAM CAN'T LOOK HIS KIDS IN THE EYE!!

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #601 - Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:48am

namnugenot wrote on Aug 13^th, 2012 at 8:48am:

MOTR wrote on Aug 12^th, 2012 at 1:08pm:

So you don't have an alternative hypothesis. What's your problem with disclosing that.

So you believe that the high levels of CO2 in the past refute The AGW hypothesis. How exactly, when you don't know the orbital forcings of the time, the workings of the ocean currents, the effect of less solar radiation, or even the temperature of the time.

Could you outline exactly how this refutes the AGW hypothesis. I'm absolutely gob smacked you think this kite will fly.

I have other hypotheses that has nothing to do with the validity of yours. Even if there was a total absence of proof against anthropogenic AGW, (which there's not), that does not prove your hypothesis. You can't cherry pick what suits you.

You have nada.

We've just shown you why high concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in the past does not disprove the AGW hypothesis. So what else you got?

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« Last Edit: Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:55am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #602 - Aug 18^th, 2012 at 9:19pm
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #603 - Aug 21^st, 2012 at 6:13pm Who forgot to send the Arctic the memo that warming is all due to anthropogenic adjustments.
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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #604 - Aug 21^st, 2012 at 8:10pm MOTR wrote on Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:48am: You have nada. Channeling DTH doesn't help your case
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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #605 - Aug 21^st, 2012 at 8:28pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 21^st, 2012 at 8:10pm: MOTR wrote on Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:48am: You have nada. Channeling DTH doesn't help your case gizmo, lol! Not below the belt,... show some honour!!
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #606 - Aug 21^st, 2012 at 10:57pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 21^st, 2012 at 8:10pm: MOTR wrote on Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:48am: You have nada. Channeling DTH doesn't help your case I'm still waiting for an alternative hypothesis, gizmo. Got one?
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progressiveslol

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #607 - Aug 21^st, 2012 at 11:34pm

MOTR wrote on Aug 21^st, 2012 at 10:57pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 21^st, 2012 at 8:10pm:

MOTR wrote on Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:48am:

You have nada.

Channeling DTH doesn't help your case

I'm still waiting for an alternative hypothesis, gizmo. Got one?

Here is one right on cue

A new paper just published in the Journal of Climate finds that global cloudiness has decreased over the past 39 years from between 0.9 to 2.8% by continent as shown in the figure below:

The period of the study is from 1971 to 2009. The authors say that:

“Global average trends of cloud cover suggest a small decline in total cloud cover, on the order of 0.4% per decade.”

Taken together, global cloud cover decreased and average of 1.56% over this 39 year period. WUWT readers may recall that Dr. Roy Spencer points out the issue of a slight change in cloud cover in his 2010 book intro of The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists. He writes:

“The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.”

So there you have it, by the work of independent scientists, it is suggested that Dr. Spencer’s hypothesis of just a small change (1-2%) of cloud cover has been observed in their study. This can account for the global warming changes observed. Cloud cover has decreased over the past 39 years globally, and temperatures have risen during that time. This global decrease in cloud cover alone could account for all surface warming observed since the 1970′s. Interestingly, some types of clouds have been on the increase, while others have been on the decrease. Figure 2 shows this:

Now, a cause needs to be identified as to why some clouds increase and others decrease. One of the obvious ones to examine is Svensmark’s cosmic ray hypothesis, which says that as solar (magnetic) activity decreases, cosmic ray insolation intensity increases, and cloud cover increases due to more cosmic ray seeding. Aerosols and ENSO may also figure greatly in cloud formation changes. It will be a tough puzzle to fully disentangle given that there have been a number of stations lost that record cloud cover type and the move has been towards automated systems (like ASOS) which only record cloud height and not type. The data in this study is mostly from human observers noting cloud type and height for aviation purposes. Perhaps there will be a way to get this information as the number of observers decrease from satellite image processing.

Here’s the paper:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00280.1

Ryan Eastman and Stephen G. Warren
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 Journal of Climate 2012:

Abstract

An archive of land-based, surface-observed cloud reports has been updated and now spans 39 years from 1971 through 2009. Cloud-type information at weather stations is available in individual reports or in long-term, seasonal, and monthly averages. A shift to a new data source and the automation of cloud reporting in some countries has reduced the number of available stations; however this dataset still represents most of the global land area.
Global average trends of cloud cover suggest a small decline in total cloud cover, on the order of 0.4% per decade. Declining clouds in middle latitudes at high and middle levels appear responsible for this trend. An analysis of zonal cloud cover changes suggests poleward shifts of the jet streams in both hemispheres. The observed displacement agrees with other studies.

Changes seen in cloud types associated with the Indian monsoon are consistent with previous work suggesting that increased pollution (black carbon) may be affecting monsoonal precipitation, causing drought in North India. A similar analysis over northern China does not show an obvious aerosol connection.

Past reports claiming a shift from stratiform to cumuliform cloud types over Russia were apparently partially based on spurious data. When the faulty stations are removed, a tradeoff of stratiform and cumuliform cloud cover is still observed, but muted, over much of northern Eurasia.

The full paper is available on the author’s website:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~rmeast/Full_Text_D1.pdf

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/spencers-cloud-hypothesis-confirmed/

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #608 - Aug 22^nd, 2012 at 5:51am

Quote:

So there you have it, by the work of independent scientists, it is suggested that Dr. Spencer’s hypothesis of just a small change (1-2%) of cloud cover has been observed in their study. This can account for the global warming changes observed. Cloud cover has decreased over the past 39 years globally, and temperatures have risen during that time.

O.K. that's one step forward. It now seems Watts, and by extension progs, now accepts the planet is warming.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #609 - Aug 22^nd, 2012 at 6:11am

From the same paper.

Quote:

Climate observations and models suggest that cloud properties have changed and will continue to change in a warming climate. Changes are likely to be seen in cloud amount, height, thickness, geographical distribution, and morphology. Widening tropical belts and warming polar regions may be causing a poleward displacement of Earth's jet streams (Bengtsson et al., 2006; Yin, 2005) and cloud- cover distributions are likely to change with a shift in the location of the mean storm track. Greenhouse gases and aerosols, can act to alter the lapse rate in the troposphere by either absorbing or scattering radiation (Bollasina et al., 2011; Ramanathan et al., 2005; Menon et al., 2002). Changes in tropospheric stability will also affect cloud amount and type. These and other influences on clouds are investigated here for the land areas of the Earth using an updated dataset of visual cloud observations.

Cloud climatologies can be derived from both surface (visual) and satellite observations, and each has its advantages and drawbacks. Some advantages of the surface observations are a long period of record and the ability to identify clouds by type; a disadvantage is in complete geographical coverage of the globe.

Progs might be happy to put the cart before the horse, but that is not true of the scientists who wrote the paper he quotes. Besides, progs doesn't even believe in the horse.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #610 - Aug 23^rd, 2012 at 5:22am IPCC, 1990: "The areas of warming are generally greater at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere than at low latitudes"
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Chrislee New Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 13 Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #611 - Aug 27^th, 2012 at 7:27pm That's serious problem.
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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #612 - Aug 28^th, 2012 at 4:47am

Chrislee wrote on Aug 27^th, 2012 at 7:27pm:

That's serious problem.

Indeed.

Quote:

NSIDC scientist Walt Meier said, "By itself it's just a number, and occasionally records are going to get set. But in the context of what's happened in the last several years and throughout the satellite record, it's an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing."

According to NSIDC Director Mark Serreze, "The previous record, set in 2007, occurred because of near perfect summer weather for melting ice. Apart from one big storm in early August, weather patterns this year were unremarkable. The ice is so thin and weak now, it doesn't matter how the winds blow."

"The Arctic used to be dominated by multiyear ice, or ice that stayed around for several years," Meier said. "Now it's becoming more of a seasonal ice cover and large areas are now prone to melting out in summer."

With two to three weeks left in the melt season, NSIDC scientists anticipate that the minimum ice extent could fall even lower.

In 2007, Arctic sea ice extent reached an all-time low in the satellite record that began in 1979. Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle of melting through the warm summer months and refreezing in the winter. While Arctic sea ice extent varies from year to year because of changeable weather conditions, ice extent has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past thirty years. The pronounced decline in summer Arctic sea ice over the last decade is considered a strong signal of long-term climate warming.

NSIDC will release a full analysis of the melt season in early October, once monthly data are available for September.

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« Last Edit: Aug 28^th, 2012 at 5:09am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #613 - Aug 28^th, 2012 at 5:20am MOTR wrote on Aug 21^st, 2012 at 10:57pm: gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 21^st, 2012 at 8:10pm: MOTR wrote on Aug 14^th, 2012 at 6:48am: You have nada. Channeling DTH doesn't help your case I'm still waiting for an alternative hypothesis, gizmo. Got one? Yeah, lots...but you'd never accept them.
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #614 - Aug 28^th, 2012 at 5:37am Away you go.
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