Australian Politics Forum - Arctic Ice continues to shrink

MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #540 - Aug 2^nd, 2012 at 3:48am

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Aug 1^st, 2012 at 9:32pm:

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 31^st, 2012 at 12:32pm:

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2011 at 7:00am:

And it is quite likely that if proper studies were carried out on this subject 100+ years ago, we would have found the same result.

Can you please quantify what you mean by "quite likely"? Unlike yours, scientific "guesses" can be ascribed a precise statistical probability.

True.
They have as much chance of being right as an ancient Druid reading animals intestines and throwing bones to read the future.
Your presise statistical probability remains a 50/50 proposition at best.

Statistics can certainly fool a fool. You're certainly entitled to be wary.

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« Last Edit: Aug 2^nd, 2012 at 3:57am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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Upton Sinclair Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 496	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #541 - Aug 5^th, 2012 at 5:37pm
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namnugenot Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 639 NSW Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #542 - Aug 5^th, 2012 at 6:43pm Very pretty graphs...I don't have any on me but you get a lovely star and smiley face. Alas what they don't show is causation so I'm going to have to give you an F.
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progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #543 - Aug 5^th, 2012 at 8:26pm Interesting graph from NASA Make of it what you will. Last 10 yrs flat. 1930's warmer.
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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #544 - Aug 5^th, 2012 at 9:29pm

progressiveslol wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 8:26pm:

Interesting graph from NASA

Make of it what you will.

Last 10 yrs
flat.

1930's warmer.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt...

Last 10 years flat? Not according to NASA.

Quote:

Above: The surface temperature anomaly for the region extending from 64oN to 90oN, from 1880 through 2011, in degrees Centigrade above or below the temperature during the 1951-1980 base period. The figures shows that temperatures have risen substantially since 1880 and that the rate of increase has been especially rapid since the late 1970s. Source: WWF, using data from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Combined Land-Surface Air and Sea-Surface Water Temperature Anomalies, Zonal annual means.

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« Last Edit: Aug 5^th, 2012 at 9:41pm by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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progressiveslol

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #545 - Aug 5^th, 2012 at 10:26pm

MOTR wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 9:29pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 8:26pm:

Interesting graph from NASA

Make of it what you will.

Last 10 yrs
flat.

1930's warmer.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt...

Last 10 years flat? Not according to NASA.

http://www.wwfblogs.org/climate/sites/default/files/north-latitudes-surface-temp...

Quote:

Above: The surface temperature anomaly for the region extending from 64oN to 90oN, from 1880 through 2011, in degrees Centigrade above or below the temperature during the 1951-1980 base period. The figures shows that temperatures have risen substantially since 1880 and that the rate of increase has been especially rapid since the late 1970s. Source: WWF, using data from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Combined Land-Surface Air and Sea-Surface Water Temperature Anomalies, Zonal annual means.

Well isnt that strange. They have 1930's warmer in their graph I provided, but yet the anomaly warmer now in the graph you provided.

No wonder they didnt pick the 1930's. Its warmer and has less to do with CO2. No, they wouldnt do that would they lol.

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #546 - Aug 6^th, 2012 at 7:36am

The graph you provided is from a 2003 paper. You'd have to look at what data they used and what biases have been identified in the interim, before you start building on your whacko conspiracy theory.

Besides one graph is yearly while the other is 5 year running average. The graph you provided also does not include the last decade of rapid warming.

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« Last Edit: Aug 6^th, 2012 at 7:42am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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progressiveslol

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #547 - Aug 6^th, 2012 at 7:42am

MOTR wrote on Aug 6^th, 2012 at 7:36am:

The graph you provided is from a 2003 paper. You'd have to look at what data they used and what biases have been identified in the interim, before you start building on your whacko conspiracy theory.

Besides one graph is yearly while the other is 5 year running average. The graph you provided also does not include the last decade of rapid warming.

There has been no warming since 98, so what the hell are you on about.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #548 - Aug 7^th, 2012 at 5:46am Got a more recent graph of arctic temperatures you'd like to share with us.
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Doctor Jolly

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #549 - Aug 7^th, 2012 at 9:21am

Here comes the sun: chilling verdict on a climate going to extremes

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/here-comes-the-sun-chilling-verdict-on-a-climate-going-to-extremes-20120806-23q5o.html#ixzz22oMCz1sT

The IPCC was actually very conservative in its predictions. The future looks much worse.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #550 - Aug 9^th, 2012 at 3:43pm namnugenot wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Very pretty graphs...I don't have any on me but you get a lovely star and smiley face. Alas what they don't show is causation so I'm going to have to give you an F. NAM ALSO CAN'T LOOK HIS KIDS IN THE EYE!!
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rabbitoh07 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2783 Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #551 - Aug 9^th, 2012 at 7:51pm namnugenot wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Very pretty graphs...I don't have any on me but you get a lovely star and smiley face. Alas what they don't show is causation so I'm going to have to give you an F. So what is your explanation for why arctic ice is shrinking? Care to share your "causation" hypothesis?
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rabbitoh07 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2783 Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #552 - Aug 9^th, 2012 at 7:54pm progressiveslol wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 8:26pm: Interesting graph from NASA Make of it what you will. Last 10 yrs flat. 1930's warmer. Last 10 years? Do you realise it is 2012? Look at the x-axis.
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Upton Sinclair Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 496	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #553 - Aug 9^th, 2012 at 8:11pm rabbitoh07 wrote on Aug 9^th, 2012 at 7:51pm: Care to share your "causation" hypothesis? Magic.
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progressiveslol

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #554 - Aug 9^th, 2012 at 8:42pm

rabbitoh07 wrote on Aug 9^th, 2012 at 7:54pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Aug 5^th, 2012 at 8:26pm:

Interesting graph from NASA

Make of it what you will.

Last 10 yrs
flat.

1930's warmer.

Last 10 years?

Do you realise it is 2012? Look at the x-axis.

I did say last 10 years. Do you have an issue with seeing the last 10 years on the graph?

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