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Arctic Ice continues to shrink (Read 63998 times)
MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #300 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 11:41am
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 8th, 2012 at 9:31am:
MOTR wrote on Mar 7th, 2012 at 3:21pm:
topend geo wrote on Mar 7th, 2012 at 6:52am:
two separate issues,

1: climate change (we all agree, the climates changing)
2: What's causing it (here lies the rub....)

MOTR, you had to say that the rate of change is different didn't you?
Can you prove this??

I say again, What's the null hypothesis? if we remove Co2 forcing from the climate models what do the models suggest? A constant average annual temperate with variation...of what??

Jalane, in my experience it's the AGW supporters who look more like religious zealots than even the US bible bashers,
Ian plimer got it right...AGW is the new religion



http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/recon_lj_with_others.png

seriously!  Cheesy you're kidding right? That graph details the last 1500 years of the earth...not much of a sample size for something that's been around for ~3.8 billion years eh?

Also nicely cut at the point where the temps started dropping!!.Man (lol or should I say Mann) and you accuse non believes of cherry picking Cheesy

P.S stop using the discredited Mann hockey-stick.


Again what is your point. There is enough evidence to suggest our climate is shifting at a rate not expected during an interglacial period.

The Mann hockey-stick is not discredited simply because enough deniers say it is so. An independent assessment of Mann's hockey stick was conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (Wahl 2007). They confirmed the principal results of the original hockey stick.

...

Temperature reconstruction after temperature reconstruction whether it be boreholes, ice cores, coral, lake sediments, glaciers, boreholes or stalagmites have backed Mann's original study. Most recently Lungqvist 2010.

...

To suggest that the world is starting to cool requires you to ignore what is happening to our oceans. Lets look at what is happening to our atmosphere when 90% of the heat is accumulating in our oceans. It takes a fair chunk of ignorance to gain any succour from what has been happening to to our atmospheric temperatures over the last few years.
...


We have gone through three La Nina years in rapid succession, yet there has been no long term cooling. Each La Nina year is hotter than the next with 2010 being the hottest year on record. (NASA) Don't tell me the planet is not warming. Ask a physicist to expain it to you.

...



Open you eyes and have a look at what is happening to our planet. Have a look at the artic sea ice volume anomaly.

...
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« Last Edit: Mar 8th, 2012 at 11:51am by MOTR »  

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

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Doctor Jolly
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #301 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 12:26pm
 
True words.

The hockey stick is most definitely real and happening.

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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #302 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 1:29pm
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 8th, 2012 at 11:30am:
Right! so what IS the natural temperature variation? One of Ice ages and interglacial warming? We're right smack bang in the middle of an interglacial right now.

Null Proven.

edit...Sorry i missed the bit where you said we should be going throufgh a period of cooling...

I haven't seen that in the (lol peer reviewed) literature, i'll have a look now.....



Let me point you to Foster and Rahmstorf (2011)

Quote:
  "When the fluctuations in temperature over the last 32 years (which tend to obscure the continuation of the global warming trend) are accounted for, it becomes obvious that there has not been any cessation, or even any slowing, of global warming over the last decade (or at any time during this time span). In other words, any deviations from an unchanging linear warming trend are explained by the influence of ENSO, volcanoes and solar variability....It is worthy of note that for all five adjusted data sets, 2009 and 2010 are the two hottest years on record....All five data sets show statistically significant warming even for the time span from 2000 to the present."


...

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topend geo
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #303 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 3:48pm
 
OK, best sources I could find predict interglacials between 10 and 30K, we're at ~ 12K now....so to say that we're due for another iceage is incorrect....do you have a better source?
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topend geo
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #304 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 3:55pm
 
pretty pictures!
Come now, you seriously suggesting that cut+pasting measurements derived from differing sources, THEN omitting the last 10 years of data onto a graph generated by a multitude of different methods is scientifically valid??

I
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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #305 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 4:03pm
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 8th, 2012 at 3:48pm:
OK, best sources I could find predict interglacials between 10 and 30K, we're at ~ 12K now....so to say that we're due for another iceage is incorrect....do you have a better source?


No one is predicting an ice age. I was talking about short term forcings, i.e. a La Nina event or a drop in solar activity
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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #306 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 4:16pm
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 8th, 2012 at 3:55pm:
pretty pictures!
Come now, you seriously suggesting that cut+pasting measurements derived from differing sources, THEN omitting the last 10 years of data onto a graph generated by a multitude of different methods is scientifically valid??

I


So you are saying short term cooling debunks a long term warming trend. Global warming is not monotonic and you know it, climate scientists expect short term cooling trends from time to time. A drop in solar activity has a cooling effect and so too does a La Nina event. Climate scientists expect short term periods of cooling from time to time. Exclude these effects as Foster and Rahmstorf have done and you can see the the warming trend has not disappeared. Have a good look at their paper they are using data sets that include the past 10 years.

Notice how in the last 10 years each successive La Nina event is getting warming. Notice that NASA has tied 2010 with 2005 as the hottest years on record.

Notice how the arctic ice volume has declined over the last 10 years. Notice how the worlds oceans have trapped more heat over the last 10 years.

To hide behind short term cooling events is just stupid. Stupid and entirely predictable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khikoh3sJg8
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topend geo
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #307 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 4:30pm
 
Nope! never said that! I also agree wholeheartedly that the Earth is warming, I do argue however that there is no way to prove that these trends are alarming or in anyway different from what has happened in the past and certainly there is no way to test that Co2 IS the definitive cause of Global warming currently.

The hockey stick just annoys me because it's bad science, you know it, but you just can't help posting it up over and over again, I can understand that, it's certainly a highly alaming graph! (If you don't know what data was used to create it.)

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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #308 - Mar 8th, 2012 at 4:34pm
 
If it is bad science why has the result been confirmed reconstruction after reconstruction.

Have a look at the past 2 milleniums. It is abnormal for that timeframe and there are no other forcings that we have been able to identify. It is why insurance companies and the US Navy are planning for the consequences. It is why there is a dearth of climate scientists who deny anthropogenic global warming. To not listen to the experts would be irrational.

http://climatecrocks.com/2011/12/05/new-video-no-its-not-about-the-hockey-stick/
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« Last Edit: Mar 8th, 2012 at 4:46pm by MOTR »  

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #309 - Mar 9th, 2012 at 2:21pm
 
"no other forcings that we have been able to identify."

how variation in the earths geomagnetic field?
http://psravenscroft.webs.com/bingo.htm
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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #310 - Mar 9th, 2012 at 6:18pm
 
You've gotta be joking. I bet you can't even explain why there might be correlation, which by the way there isn't.
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #311 - Mar 10th, 2012 at 3:37am
 
did you read it?
do you know what generates the Earths magnetic fields?
do you know what effect they have on solar radiation?
do you know what causes thermal upwelling in the earths crust?
naw, that aint climate science, it's just some waffle about rocks n such.

I'm kinda disappointed you didn't pull the "that's not peer reviewed" on me, but in case you feel inclined, here's one that is:
http://www.viewzone.com/magnetic.weather.html

edit (repair hyperlink)

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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #312 - Mar 10th, 2012 at 9:12am
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 10th, 2012 at 3:37am:
did you read it?
do you know what generates the Earths magnetic fields?
do you know what effect they have on solar radiation?
do you know what causes thermal upwelling in the earths crust?
naw, that aint climate science, it's just some waffle about rocks n such.

I'm kinda disappointed you didn't pull the "that's not peer reviewed" on me, but in case you feel inclined, here's one that is:
http://www.viewzone.com/magnetic.weather.htm


Of course I read it. I'll post the offending paragraph.
Quote:
The African, Antarcrtic Peninsula and East Siberian verical magnetic shift and temperture matches are all shown on these two sets of maps and they all coincide beautifully. . The mag maps are the vertical component down intensity shifts for 1980, 1990 and 2000.  I have been struggling with old 1960's vertical intensity maps, but this lot, I think,  clinchs the argument.  that AGW is not driving climate change but geomagnetic shifts are


There is also a temperature anomaly map from 2005, from which we are meant to do some sort of visual correlation analysis. I didn't confuse it with a scientific paper which is why I didn't mention the review process.

I hope your next link has a little more meat on it.
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MOTR
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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #313 - Mar 11th, 2012 at 11:14am
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 10th, 2012 at 3:37am:
did you read it?
do you know what generates the Earths magnetic fields?
do you know what effect they have on solar radiation?
do you know what causes thermal upwelling in the earths crust?
naw, that aint climate science, it's just some waffle about rocks n such.

I'm kinda disappointed you didn't pull the "that's not peer reviewed" on me, but in case you feel inclined, here's one that is:
http://www.viewzone.com/magnetic.weather.html


I'm still waiting for an explanation of your first link. Your second link makes a lot more sense. There is some evidence that galactic cosmic rays may play a role in low cloud formation and therefore climate. There is certainly plenty of noise in the system that scientists have not been able to attribute to a particular forcing. However, there seems little hope cosmic rays can explain recent warming when there has been no significant trend in the cosmic ray flux over the last 50 years.

...

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #314 - Mar 12th, 2012 at 1:51pm
 
topend geo wrote on Mar 10th, 2012 at 3:37am:
did you read it?
do you know what generates the Earths magnetic fields?
do you know what effect they have on solar radiation?
do you know what causes thermal upwelling in the earths crust?
naw, that aint climate science, it's just some waffle about rocks n such.

I'm kinda disappointed you didn't pull the "that's not peer reviewed" on me, but in case you feel inclined, here's one that is:
http://www.viewzone.com/magnetic.weather.html

edit (repair hyperlink)


DOCUMENT SHOCK!

LOL, GO STRESS!! PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!


  Grin
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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