Australian Politics Forum - Arctic Ice continues to shrink

gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #120 - Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:33am

MOTR wrote on Dec 20^th, 2011 at 5:08am:

Reconstuctions by Moberg et al. (2005) and Mann et al. (2008) and Ljungqvist (2010) tell us it is warmer today than anytime in the last two millennia.

“Since AD 1990, though, average temperatures in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere exceed those of any other warm decades the last two millennia, even the peak of the Medieval Warm Period” Ljugqvist 2010.

Why do you think climate scientists are so concerned about this recent warming.

Because there's lots of research money around???

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #121 - Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:49am

MOTR wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 9:18pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 11:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:56am:

The mid Holocene period, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. This astronomical climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.

I'm sorry, but that's also not correct, both the MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University...

Did Huang and Pollack conclude that the MWP was worldwide. Averaging out the other proxies suggests an entirely different conclusion.

MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University..

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #122 - Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:58pm

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:31am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 9:18pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 11:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:56am:

The mid Holocene period, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. This astronomical climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.

I'm sorry, but that's also not correct, both the MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University...

Did Huang and Pollack conclude that the MWP was worldwide. Averaging out the other proxies suggests an entirely different conclusion.

The problem with averaging out proxies is they are just so very average eh.

Damn lies and statistics.

Measurement is always the problem with science!

What exactly are you measuring with your whacko-the-diddlio tools...

In economics the same...

Complex systems are complex, WOW!!

THAT'S WHY IT AINT VERY HARD FOR THE SILVER SPOONERS TO RAISE DOUBT AND GIVE THE TRYHARD UPPER-MIDDLECLASS MAS TIME TO REASSESS THEIR VARIOUS SCAMS AS REGARDS THE IMPENDING NEW REGULATED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT!!

IT'S ALL QUITE NATURAL AND HARMLESS!!! Cheesy

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #123 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 10:45am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:49am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 9:18pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 11:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:56am:

The mid Holocene period, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. This astronomical climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.

I'm sorry, but that's also not correct, both the MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University...

Did Huang and Pollack conclude that the MWP was worldwide. Averaging out the other proxies suggests an entirely different conclusion.

MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University..

In 2008 Huang et al. published a paper that explains why the data from their 97 paper cannot be used for comparing MWP warmth to the 20th Century. They then integrate the datasets from their 97 and 2000 papers with 20th Century instrumental records into a reconstruction that is entirely consistent with the climate proxies summarized by the IPCC.

Their reconstruction shows "the maximum of the MWP at or slightly below the reference level, the minimum of the LIA about 1K below the reference level and end of 20th Century temperatures about 0.5K above the reference level." Huang et al. 2008.

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chicken_lipsforme

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #124 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 10:47am

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:58pm:

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:31am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 9:18pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 11:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:56am:

The mid Holocene period, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. This astronomical climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.

I'm sorry, but that's also not correct, both the MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University...

Did Huang and Pollack conclude that the MWP was worldwide. Averaging out the other proxies suggests an entirely different conclusion.

The problem with averaging out proxies is they are just so very average eh.

Damn lies and statistics.

Measurement is always the problem with science!

What exactly are you measuring with your whacko-the-diddlio tools...

In economics the same...

Complex systems are complex, WOW!!

THAT'S WHY IT AINT VERY HARD FOR THE SILVER SPOONERS TO RAISE DOUBT AND GIVE THE TRYHARD UPPER-MIDDLECLASS MAS TIME TO REASSESS THEIR VARIOUS SCAMS AS REGARDS THE IMPENDING NEW REGULATED ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT!!

IT'S ALL QUITE NATURAL AND HARMLESS!!! Cheesy

Particularly when you primarily base extrapolations on guesswork and call it a 'proxy' measurement.
Yes, it's all very problematic and complex particularly when the models don't pan out as initially forecast.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #125 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 11:24am

MOTR wrote on Dec 21^st, 2011 at 10:45am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 20^th, 2011 at 7:49am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 9:18pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 11:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:56am:

The mid Holocene period, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. This astronomical climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.

I'm sorry, but that's also not correct, both the MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University...

Did Huang and Pollack conclude that the MWP was worldwide. Averaging out the other proxies suggests an entirely different conclusion.

MWP and the LIA were found to be worldwide in effect way back in 1997...as the result of a (published and peer reviewed) study by Shaopeng Huang and Henry Pollack of Michigan University..

In 2008 Huang et al. published a paper that explains why the data from their 97 paper cannot be used for comparing MWP warmth to the 20th Century. They then integrate the datasets from their 97 and 2000 papers with 20th Century instrumental records into a reconstruction that is entirely consistent with the climate proxies summarized by the IPCC.

Their reconstruction shows "the maximum of the MWP at or slightly below the reference level, the minimum of the LIA about 1K below the reference level and end of 20th Century temperatures about 0.5K above the reference level." Huang et al. 2008.

And so???...It STILL shows that both the MWP and LIA existed and were worldwide in effect..

Which was the major reason I mentioned it in the first place...

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #126 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 12:01pm

I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to argue. I accept that during the medieval period there were places in the Northern hemisphere that were as warm if not warmer than today. However, the global temperature was not as high as it is today. How is this possible if places elsewhere were not significantly cooler?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #127 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 12:13pm

MOTR wrote on Dec 21^st, 2011 at 12:01pm:

I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to argue. I accept that during the medieval period there were places in the Northern hemisphere that were as warm if not warmer than today. However, the global temperature was not as high as it is today. How is this possible if places elsewhere were not significantly cooler?

Ok, I'll try again....
IF the world wide temperatures during the MWP were on average only 0.5 C cooler than now ( scientist use degrees K instead of degrees C but it means the same thing) and 'everyone' is talking about how much the temperatures have risen since the Industrial Revolution (you yourself claim +1.5C) then that means that at at least one point in history the temperatures where significantly higher than pre-Industrial levels....without human intervention...

And because of the way averaging works....while there may have been places cooler than today, there would have to have been places warmer, possible at lot warmer as well......ALL of this, without humans adding any Co2 (or any other CHG).

So, what caused it then, and why do you think Co2/CHG is causing it now????

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #128 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:02pm

There is some evidence that the medieval warming was caused by a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – the ocean current that drives winds from the Atlantic over Europe. The more positive the NAO is, the more warm air is blown towards the continent.

The impact of CO2 has been proven in atmospheric physics. Paleoclimatology is being used to verify the physics.

The amplitude of the MWP supports the climate sensitivity levels adopted by the IPCC. as Wally Broecker puts it, "the paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being self-stabilising, the Earth's climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts to even small nudges."

The theory of AGW has been around for a long time, the physics has been proven and now this little test tube is heating up.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #129 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:08pm

MOTR wrote on Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:02pm:

There is some evidence that the medieval warming was caused by a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – the ocean current that drives winds from the Atlantic over Europe. The more positive the NAO is, the more warm air is blown towards the continent.

Which doesn't hold up, since the geo-cores show that it was world wide...which is my point....

At the risk of sounding trite....If you hear hoof-beats in a national park...expect horses, not zebras....

Or if you prefer, Occam's Razor...

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #130 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:13pm What are you talking about "the geo-cores show it was worldwide".
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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #131 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:16pm

MOTR wrote on Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:02pm:

The theory of AGW has been around for a long time, the physics has been proven and now this little test tube is heating up.

Nope...I disagree..
Before the 1960's, AGW was very much a 'fringe' theory..Global Cooling was by far the more popular theory..

AGW didn't really start getting much support until the 'back to nature' philosphies of the flower child era in the mid to late 1960's and 1970's.....where everything wrong with the world became man's fault...

The physics haven't been proven....other than by the concept of 'something is happening, so let's assume it's mankinds fault'....

What we (man, and the science community) don't know about how the Universe and the Earth function would fill a football field, in very very small print....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #132 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:18pm MOTR wrote on Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:13pm: What are you talking about "the geo-cores show it was worldwide". Pollack and Huang et al.... You really aren't very quick on the uptake, are you????
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #133 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:24pm We've been through this. Huang et al. Conclude global temperatures were cooler during the MWP than now. If regions in the northern hemisphere were as warm as today the southern hemisphere must have been cooler.
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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #134 - Dec 21^st, 2011 at 2:15pm

MOTR wrote on Dec 21^st, 2011 at 1:24pm:

We've been through this. Huang et al. Conclude global temperatures were cooler during the MWP than now. If regions in the northern hemisphere were as warm as today the southern hemisphere must have been cooler.

Yes, but not as cool as you want to make out...and they also concluded that the rise in temperature was worldwide...

Huang and Pollack did NOT state (in the original paper) that only Northern Europe was the only place affected....no they state that ALL continents were affected...Even if the top temps were a little 'off', they weren't as low as Mann's Hockey Stick claimed...

So, basically....the MWP AND the LIA did in fact exist, worldwide.....a 1/2 degree difference between 950AD-1250AD and 2008 is small potatoes on the scale of things...

It STILL contradicts the Mann assertion that the temperatures never varied for over 2000 years and the 'suddenly' skyrocketed after 1880 or 1900

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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