Australian Politics Forum - Arctic Ice continues to shrink

gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #90 - Dec 13^th, 2011 at 8:12am BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Dec 12^th, 2011 at 7:12pm: I'm not responsible for bringing the quote to the table: gizmo is!! It's not from a paper, it's a synopis from various paelogeological and ice core sources
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #91 - Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:35pm Where is your reference? Just asking.
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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #92 - Dec 14^th, 2011 at 6:00pm MOTR wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:35pm: Where is your reference? Just asking. Ummm at least a dozen papers on the subject... Search Robert Carter and Ian Plimer...for a start....AND a number of other highly qualified scientists...( although I will understand if you can't accept those guys..)
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it_is_the_light Gold Member Offline Christ Light Posts: 41434 The Pyramid of LIGHT Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #93 - Dec 14^th, 2011 at 6:18pm yes all planets in the solar system warms they pay no tax to reverse this as it is the nature al way for it is so and so it is as the transformational >>>shift<<< continues to manifest in the physical on all levels so be it namaste -:)
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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #94 - Dec 15^th, 2011 at 4:04am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 14^th, 2011 at 6:00pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:35pm:

Where is your reference? Just asking.

Ummm at least a dozen papers on the subject...

Search Robert Carter and Ian Plimer...for a start....AND a number of other highly qualified scientists...( although I will understand if you can't accept those guys..)

Is that because gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 14^th, 2011 at 6:00pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:35pm:

Where is your reference? Just asking.

Ummm at least a dozen papers on the subject...

Search Robert Carter and Ian Plimer...for a start....AND a number of other highly qualified scientists...( although I will understand if you can't accept those guys..)

Is that because Professor Plimer has never written a peer-reviewed paper on climate change in his life, and Carter has written just the one on the influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature betwwen 1958 and 2008.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #95 - Dec 16^th, 2011 at 9:29am

MOTR wrote on Dec 15^th, 2011 at 4:04am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 14^th, 2011 at 6:00pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:35pm:

Where is your reference? Just asking.

Ummm at least a dozen papers on the subject...

Search Robert Carter and Ian Plimer...for a start....AND a number of other highly qualified scientists...( although I will understand if you can't accept those guys..)

Is that because gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 14^th, 2011 at 6:00pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:35pm:

Where is your reference? Just asking.

Ummm at least a dozen papers on the subject...

Search Robert Carter and Ian Plimer...for a start....AND a number of other highly qualified scientists...( although I will understand if you can't accept those guys..)

Is that because Professor Plimer has never written a peer-reviewed paper on climate change in his life, and Carter has written just the one on the influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature betwwen 1958 and 2008.

Actually that's untrue...Bob Carter has contributed to 7 papers involving climate....and over 100 peer reviewed papers, which puts him in front of Tim Flannery with contributions to 90 papers..

However, don't make the mistake of judging a scientists knowledge, based solely on peer reviewed papers....Not every one publishes, sure it looks good on your resume when you're looking for a job, but teaching professors, like Ian Plimer, aren't really expected or required to do so....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #96 - Dec 16^th, 2011 at 11:54am

You are missing my point, gizmo. I am interested in checking a statement you quoted as fact.

...but it doesn't really change the fact that the rate of change is still well within the normal range that's been found in geological and ice core samplings......it's usually between 0.5C and 1.5C per century.....(+/- 0.2C)

I asked you where this was established and you referred me to Carter and Plimer. It obviously didnt come from Plimer and the only paper from Carter that relates to climate change, does not investigate ice core samples.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #97 - Dec 16^th, 2011 at 12:09pm

MOTR wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 11:54am:

You are missing my point, gizmo. I am interested in checking a statement you quoted as fact.

...but it doesn't really change the fact that the rate of change is still well within the normal range that's been found in geological and ice core samplings......it's usually between 0.5C and 1.5C per century.....(+/- 0.2C)

I asked you where this was established and you referred me to Carter and Plimer. It obviously didnt come from Plimer and the only paper from Carter that relates to climate change, does not investigate ice core samples.

It came from a talk Bob Carter made several years ago....It's on video somewhere on the net.....I might have a link to it, but I'm not sure...

Ahh..I found it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh20cnLwCiw&feature=player_embedded#!

Look at about 11 minutes in...

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« Last Edit: Dec 16^th, 2011 at 12:17pm by gizmo_2655 »

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #98 - Dec 16^th, 2011 at 3:11pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 12:09pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 11:54am:

You are missing my point, gizmo. I am interested in checking a statement you quoted as fact.

...but it doesn't really change the fact that the rate of change is still well within the normal range that's been found in geological and ice core samplings......it's usually between 0.5C and 1.5C per century.....(+/- 0.2C)

I asked you where this was established and you referred me to Carter and Plimer. It obviously didnt come from Plimer and the only paper from Carter that relates to climate change, does not investigate ice core samples.

It came from a talk Bob Carter made several years ago....It's on video somewhere on the net.....I might have a link to it, but I'm not sure...

Ahh..I found it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh20cnLwCiw&feature=player_embedded#!

Look at about 11 minutes in...

= pts for accountability!! Wink

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #99 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:03am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 12:09pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 11:54am:

You are missing my point, gizmo. I am interested in checking a statement you quoted as fact.
...but it doesn't really change the fact that the rate of change is still well within the normal range that's been found in geological and ice core samplings......it's usually between 0.5C and 1.5C per century.....(+/- 0.2C)

I asked you where this was established and you referred me to Carter and Plimer. It obviously didnt come from Plimer and the only paper from Carter that relates to climate change, does not investigate ice core samples.

It came from a talk Bob Carter made several years ago....It's on video somewhere on the net.....I might have a link to it, but I'm not sure...

Ahh..I found it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh20cnLwCiw&feature=player_embedded#!

Look at about 11 minutes in...

Here Bob Carter claims that rate of temperature change per century over the last 5000 year lies somewhere between +/- 2.5C per century. I don't
believe he provides an average rate of temperature change or a standard deviation. The average rate of
change would be something like +0.1C per century, which has been the average rate of warming since the end of the last ice age. Our current rate of warming is 1.5C per century and rising. Which is well above average but well within Bob's "geological envelope of
change."

Bob's argument is that we have experienced this rate of change before and it is well within the natural envelope of change. If Bob is using Greenland ice cores as his proxy for global temperature, his envelope of change will be stretched, as regional changes can be more dramatic than global ones. He also ignores the huge body of scientific work that has been done identifying the drivers that have caused the increases in temperature that he identifies as being similar to our own. Currently the only driver that can satisfactorily explain our current period of global warming is the increase in atmospheric CO2. It is why 97% of climate scientists accept AGW.

I'm still interested in where your initial rate of change measure comes from. Bob may have quoted another study somewhere else? If it is a measure Bob has created, I'd be very worried of it's accuracy considering the flaws in his treatment of other data and the almost certain likelihood that it would not have been peer reviewed.

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« Last Edit: Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:23am by MOTR »

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #100 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:29am

MOTR wrote on Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:03am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 12:09pm:

MOTR wrote on Dec 16^th, 2011 at 11:54am:

You are missing my point, gizmo. I am interested in checking a statement you quoted as fact.

...but it doesn't really change the fact that the rate of change is still well within the normal range that's been found in geological and ice core samplings......it's usually between 0.5C and 1.5C per century.....(+/- 0.2C)

I asked you where this was established and you referred me to Carter and Plimer. It obviously didnt come from Plimer and the only paper from Carter that relates to climate change, does not investigate ice core samples.

It came from a talk Bob Carter made several years ago....It's on video somewhere on the net.....I might have a link to it, but I'm not sure...

Ahh..I found it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh20cnLwCiw&feature=player_embedded#!

Look at about 11 minutes in...

Here Bob Carter claims that rate of temperature change per century over the last 5000 year lies somewhere between +/- 2.5C per century. I don't
believe he provides an average rate of temperature change or a standard deviation. The average rate of change would be something like +0.1C per century, which has been the average rate of warming since the end of the last ice age. Our current rate of warming is 1.5C per century and rising. Which is well above average but well within Bob's "geological envelope of change."

Bob's argument is that we have experienced this rate of change before and it is well within the natural envelope of change. He chooses to disconnect the facts that it is warmer than it has ever been in the Holocene period (our current interglacial period) and
the rate of change is statistically high. If Bob is using Greenland ice cores as his proxy for global temperature, his envelope of change will be stretched, as regional changes can be more dramatic than global ones. He also ignores the huge body of scientific work that has been done identifying the drivers that have caused the increases in temperature that he identifies as being similar to our own. Currently the only driver that can satisfactorily explain our current period of global warming is the increase in atmospheric CO2. It is why 97% of climate scientists accept AGW.

I'm still interested in where your initial rate of change measure comes from. Bob may have quoted another study somewhere else? If it is a measure Bob has created, I'd be very worried of it's accuracy considering the flaws in his treatment of other data and the almost certain likelihood that it would not have been peer reviewed.

He chooses to disconnect the facts that it is warmer than it has ever been in the Holocene period (our current interglacial period)

But it isn't warmer now than it's ever been in the Holocene...
Even within 'recent' history (the last 2000 years) there have been times when it was warmer than now...
And there've been at least 4 or 5 other periods when the temperature was above the current temperatures in the last 10,000 years...

Should I mention the Roman Warm Period, and the Medieval Warm Period (when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland, which was ice free???)

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #101 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:44am You're right about there being warmer times during the holocene period. I realized I'd made that mistake when I was reading over my post. I think you'll find I edited that bit out of my post before you replied.
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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #102 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 10:56am The mid Holocene period, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. This astronomical climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.
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MOTR

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Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink
Reply #103 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 11:22am

Further, the Medieval warm period was certainly not warmer than it is today. If you focus on limited data sets you could naively conclude that global temperatures were warmer during this period. This type of conclusion does not survive scientific scrutiny but seems to have been well established in denialist literature.

Mann(2009) Used more than 1000 tree-ring, ice core, coral, sediment and other assorted proxy records spanning both hemispheres to construct a global map of temperature change over the past 1500 years. If you were ever curious enough to look at the reconstructed surface temperature maps of the two periods you would see that the medieval warm period was not a global phenomenon like it is today. Global temperatures are higher today than any time in the last 1500 years.

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« Last Edit: Dec 18^th, 2011 at 12:51pm by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

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Bobby. Moderator Online Australian Politics Posts: 122728 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Arctic Ice continues to shrink Reply #104 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 12:08pm Our only hope is that a giant volcanic eruption will occur & the resulting dust will blot the sun out for 10 years. That will cause temperatures to drop but it may cause starvation as plants need sun to grow.
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