matty wrote on Jul 10
th, 2011 at 11:32pm:
GoddyofOz wrote on Jul 8
th, 2011 at 11:41pm:
matty wrote on Jul 8
th, 2011 at 11:36pm:
GoddyofOz wrote on Jul 8
th, 2011 at 11:23pm:
I can't speak for NT and ACT, but as far as QLD is concerned, I honestly think Labor have it in the bag because of two things:
- Blighs popularity hit the roof for her handling of the disasters earlier in the year
- Everybody up here hates Campbell Newman for abandoning his position as Mayor of Brisbane just for his own political gain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Queensland_state_electionLooking at the recent polls, please explain.
*Sigh* Again with the polls? How many times do I have to say that I don't believe in them before it finally cracks your Lib blowjob head?
The polls are always pretty much 100% correct. Except when they're a long way out from the likely real-world polling day (election)...
Pollsters can get away with fudging the data - with arbitrary and therefore dubious inclusions, exclusions, omissions, use of preliminary questions which serve to colour responses...
Then there's the magic 'weighting' processes: -
* Which arbitrarily fudge the demographics by state, region, gender, age, etc. to skew the results, and;
* To get to a TPP figure - which can be either based upon the preferences cast at the last election or on an actual question in the opinion poll as to second preferencing.
The only time that pollsters are ever held close to account, is in the last few weeks and days before an election - since the election day result will provide a definitive outcome and thereby either validate or belie the opinion polling results...