perceptions_now
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Australian Politics
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Perth WA
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Well, quite a bit of talk, but not much in the way of any actual solutions, unless you count the one liner about "there WILL be 'cheaper' alternatives in the future".
Let me say, if the only solution, in place of "good Public policy", is we will go with a "wing & a prayer" and hope that the "innovation cavalry" come riding over the hill, just in the nick of time, AGAIN, then we have real problems, whivh we do.
You will note that I said, "in the nick of time" and that's because if we were going to "think of something else long before we run out", then we would have already done it!
As I have repeatedly said, in respect of Energy, Oil Production already effectively Peaked back in 2005 and short of another major Recession that will become glaringly obvious to almost all, over the next couple of years.
That said, I expect we will shortly see "the Recession we had to have", as Paul Keating would have put it!
As I have also said many times, we don't have to run out of Oil, for it to be a major problem.
In fact, Oil becomes a major problem when - The flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met?
And, the start of the effects of that moment, can be seen in what has happened after 2005, when the Peak Oil moment did arrive!
Since then, it has been reflected in higher Energy & Food prices, it was reflected in the current GFC starting & it is still being reflected, as the Global Economy again sinks into recession, as many governments & central banks are now broke and can not continue their Keynesian efforts.
However, this thread is about solutions and in this respect, we need to view things in two ways - 1) Near - medium term. 2) Longer term
Near - medium term Oil/Petrol Pricing will probably go lower in the short term, as the GFC Mk2 bites deeper, but Prices are unlikely to go as low as they did in response to the GFC Mk1, before then starting a more medium term rise, that simply won't stop, as it becomes apparent to almost all, that the Peak Oil moment has arrived and the flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met? So, in the short to medium term, there is only a brief respite, before things really start to get out of hand!
Longer term Governments of ALL PERSUASIONS & IN ALL MAJOR COUNTRIES, need to accept that Peak Oil is here now and they need to enlist the help of the Public & provide direction to the private sector, so that change can be started in more sustainable directions.
Those directions lay in lower Demand, via a declining Global Population and a real attempt to look at possible new Technologies & Innovations, towards new ways of doing things & alternative Energy sources, particularly in relation to Transport.
But time is of the essence and if we are to avoid a monumental collapse, of staggering proportions, then we ned to start now, with a Global program, equivalent in effort to the likes of the Manhattan Project, otherwise the longer term will get completely out of hand.
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