...Fukushima reactor fuel and spent fuel rods glowed HOT for up to 12 hours after cooling was lost.

There is no doubt that the zircaloy casing fothe fuel rods has been oxidised - hence the production of hydrogen.

Question is HOW much of the fuel inventory has been comprimised in this way?

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said the March 11 earthquake may result in a larger hit to the economy than previously estimated, indicating the government’s greater appetite for stimulus one month after the disaster.

“The damage to the economy may be bigger than we initially expected,” Yosano told reporters today in Tokyo. “In addition to disruptions in the supply chain, we have the added seriousness of the situation with the nuclear power plant,” referring to the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s crippled facility in Fukushima that the government today said has a severity rating matching the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

“There’s talk of a tax hike, but that risks exacerbating the drop in consumer confidence,” said Matsuoka, an economist at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The BOJ will probably want to avoid increasing its monthly bond purchases because they think that would be similar to monetizing debt.”

The central bank is barred by law from directly buying public debt from the government, and instead purchases 1.8 trillion yen ($21 billion) of the securities from lenders each month, an amount that’s been unchanged for two years.

Confidence Slips
Confidence among merchants closest to Japan’s consumers tumbled at the fastest pace in March since the Cabinet Office began tracking the data in 2000, a survey showed last week.

Analysts from Capital Economics Ltd. are now forecasting the economy will shrink 1.5 percent this year, revised from a previous estimate for gross domestic product to be unchanged.

“GDP should then rebound as activity recovers from the initial shock and reconstruction spending kicks in, but the recovery will be held back by increases in taxes and cuts in other expenditure required to help pay for the government’s contribution,” economists led by Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics, said in a note last week

Damage Estimate
The government last month estimated damages from the earthquake and tsunami will be as much as 25 trillion yen, prompting several lawmakers to call for a stimulus package as large as 20 trillion yen. Those projections covered destruction to infrastructure while excluding wider implications to the economy, including how radiation will affect food and water supply.

Link -
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSpyJhCYJ9AU&pos=2
=========================
A few observations -
1) The intial estimate I saw from the Japanese was around US$300 Billion and my initial thoughts were around US$1 Trillion plus. At this stage I would still go with the US$1 Trillion plus.

2) The Japanese were already looking at a National Debt of some 200% of their US$5 Trillion GDP, before this event, they simply can not continue to pile on Debt, like there is no tomorrow, unless there isn't.
The Japanese are/were the second largest supporter of US Treasury Bonds, so something is going to give way.
Choices are coming, do the japanese -
a) Increase the Tax take or increase Debt?
b) Take care of their own Debt OR do they pander to the US?

3) They say, “the BOJ will probably want to avoid increasing its monthly bond purchases because they think that would be similar to monetizing debt.”
That is exactly what the US Federal Reserve is doing and THEY ARE BOTH MONETISING DEBT!

Quote:


That's more that I thought. I would say that most of that release has been into the sea.

muso wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 4:20pm:



From what I've read, there are estimations that much more than that arbitrary '10% of Chernobyl' figure was released in the first week alone...

Meantime, I think we're yet to be informed about how they defined "low level" radiation in the thousands of tons of water that they deliberately pumped into the sea...

Equitist wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 4:25pm:


I have modelling software, but I'd say that the amount of contamination on land is tiny in comparison to Chernobyl. They were quoting 555 kBq m-2 in what is now the Exclusion Zone of Chernobyl.

I haven't seen any results anything like that from land samples, so if the total is 10% of Chernobyl, that represents a heck of a lot of activity disposed to the sea.

Well I'll stick my neck out and say that I very much doubt if the full consequences of this incident will be anything like the magnitude of Chernobyl.

The 10% figure related to I-131. The comparison is between I-131 and Cs-137. For some reason, they don't mention the fact that a considerable proportion of the activity at Chernobyl was from transuranics ie  Uranium, Plutonium, Americum etc.

Comparing Cs and I totals between Fukushima and Chernobyl, the ratio is more like 5%. I'd like to see pictures of the spent fuel rod pools.

The one positive factor in ground water comparing between Fukushima and Chernobyl is that the net hydrological flow at Fukushima is towards the sea. Groundwater contamination is not a good prospect whichever way you look at it, but at least the hydrology is favourable for the local inhabitants.

"....clearly we are witnessing one of the greatest disasters of modern time"

AREVA executive VP
March 21, 2011

I would urge everyone to obtain a copy or summary fo this important report in relation to the Fukushima disaster