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Fukushima - Consequences? (Read 102585 times)
muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #390 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 10:52am
 
Equitist wrote on Apr 9th, 2011 at 6:30pm:
Apparently, it will take experts at least 10 years to decommission the 4 troubled Fukushima reactors and clean up the contaminated site...



That's about how long it takes to decommission any other Nuclear Power station. In fact they typically take 20 years with Safestor these days.
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #391 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 11:43am
 
Closing Ranks: The NRC, the Nuclear Industry, and TEPCO are Limiting the Flow of Information
April 6th, 2011 - Embedded Video at below site


Arnie Gundersen discusses inconsistencies between what the NRC, TEPCo, and the Nuclear Industry are saying privately and publicly. Documents from the french nuclear firm, Areva, and the NRC reveal what the industry knows about the Fukushima disaster.

Nuclear Engineer Arnie Gundersen demonstrates How Fukushima's Fuel Rods Melted and Shattered
April 10th, 2011 - Embedded Video at below site
Fairewinds' Chief Nuclear Engineer, Arnie Gundersen, conducts a field demonstration simulating the impact of Fukushima's intense heat upon Zircaloy [zirconium alloy] fuel rods. Gundersen's demonstration shows that intense heat weakens and embrittles Zircaloy changing it from a sturdy metal to a brittle oxide that is easily shattered. Images from the post accident Three Mile Island nuclear core show embrittled and broken Zircaloy fuel rods in the nuclear reactor.

Link -
http://www.fairewinds.com/updates
================================
Further to Reply #296 - Apr 5th, 2011, 12:45pm, there are now 2 more video reports from Arnie Gundersen at Fairwinds & Associates.

The April 6th video refers to a number of inconsistencies involved in reports coming from TEPCO & others, which In my opinion has been apparent!

Arnie also talks about -
1) The Reliability of information being questionable.
2) The possibility of Recriticality ocurring.
3) The possibility of further Hydrogen explosions.
4) A report from the French Nuclear company Areva containing issues that the Public are not being made aware of, including -
a) That the Nuclear Fuel in reactors 1,2 & 3 reached 5000f, which is beyond the melting point of Zircalloy & Stainless Steel.
b) Reactor 2 RPV being breeched by a Hydrogen explosion.
c) Areva recommend control of crops & dairy products, out to 50 km, due to radiation levels.
d) Plutonium & other material is coming from reactor 4, due to a crack in the fuel pool resulting from the earthquake, which caused a "core melt in fresh air".

 

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #392 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 11:53am
 
Japan may raise nuke accident severity level to highest 7 from 5


The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan released a preliminary calculation Monday saying that the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant had been releasing up to 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour at some point after a massive quake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11.

The disclosure prompted the government to consider raising the accident's severity level to 7, the worst on an international scale, from the current 5, government sources said. The level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale has only been applied to the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe.


According to an evaluation by the INES, level 7 accidents correspond with a release into the external environment radioactive materials equal to more than tens of thousands terabecquerels of radioactive iodine 131. One terabecquerel equals 1 trillion becquerels.

Haruki Madarame, chairman of the commission, which is a government panel, said it has estimated that the release of 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour continued for several hours.

The commission says the release has since come down to under 1 terabecquerel per hour and said that it is still examining the total amount of radioactive materials released.

The commission also released a preliminary calculation for the cumulative amount of external exposure to radiation, saying it exceeded the yearly limit of 1 millisieverts in areas extending more than 60 kilometers to the northwest of the plant and about 40 km to the south-southwest of the plant.

Within a 20-km exclusion zone set by the government, the amount varied from under 1 millisieverts to 100 millisieverts or more, and in the 20-30 km radius ring where residents are asked to stay indoors, it came to under 50 millisieverts.

Link -
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/84721.html
==========================================
I am reminded of a recent post, which addreses the approach of Politicians & no doubt other self-interest groups, such as those involved in this issue.

Does anyone believe that -
1) All Politicians, tell the truth, all the time?
2) All Politicians, have our interests at heart, not theirs?
3) Government Statistics, don't lie?
4) War is the only thing, where we are treated like mushrooms?

If there is anyone, let me introduce you to Alice and the looking glass, where things just aren't what they seem and much of the time that is self induced!




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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #393 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 12:06pm
 
WRAPUP 4-Fire at Japan's crippled nuclear plant, more aftershocks


TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) - Engineers were fighting a fire at Japan's crippled nuclear plant on Tuesday as another major aftershock rocked eastern Japan, swaying buildings in central Tokyo and closing Narita airport runways.

Japan is considering raising the severity level of its nuclear crisis to put it on a par with the Chernobyl accident 25 years ago, the worst atomic power disaster in history, Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday.

Operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, said on Tuesday that its workers were fighting a fire near damaged reactor No. 4.

It was unclear how serious the fire was.


An aftershock measuring 6.6 quake hit Fukushima prefecture on Monday evening temporarily cutting power and forcing workers to evacuate the nuclear plant.

Nearly 28,000 Japanese are dead or missing and the world's third-largest economy is reeling with power blackouts, factory c closures and cuts to supply lines.

The Kyodo reported on Tuesday that the high levels of radiation that have been released by the Fukushima Daiichi plant meant it could raise the severity level from 5 to the highest 7, the same as the 1986 Chernobyl accident.

"It has been obvious all along this was a 7. There are three reactors that are not being cooled (No. 1, 2 &3) and four fuel pools too (No. 1, 2, 3, and especially 4)," said Arnie Gundersen, a 29-year veteran of the nuclear industry who worked on reactors similar to those at Daiichi and who is now chief engineer at Fairewinds Associates Inc of Burlington, Vermont.

He said that means there were at least seven cores or pools that had been in difficulty. He noted that at Chernobyl it was only one reactor that created the problem.

A spokesman for the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, Japan's nuclear safety watchdog, said he was unaware of any move by the government to raise the level.

EVACUATION ZONE WIDENS
Because of accumulated radiation contamination, the government is encouraging people to leave certain areas beyond its 20 km (12 mile) exclusion zone around the plant. Thousands of people could be affected by the move.

Link -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/japan-idUSL3E7FB2TZ20110412?pageNumber...
======================================
At this point, even iF the TEPCO or government spokesperson was named FRANK CARE, I would have great difficulty in believing that he would be FRANK & Honest, in passing on all of the corect information!
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #394 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:03pm
 
...the Fukushima situation can only get worse.

the issues now are whether they can avoid a major explosion and catastrophic release of radiation into the environment AND whether they can prevent a full meltdown from breaching the reactos base and contaminate the gorund water and soil.

And of course they need to be thinking about the contruction of a  sarcophagus that will hold for at least  the next 100,000 years

good luck

(trace levels of Cesium and Iodine found in US food - including milk)
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #395 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:27pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 12:10pm:
WRAPUP 4-Fire at Japan's crippled nuclear plant, more aftershocks


TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) - Engineers were fighting a fire at Japan's crippled nuclear plant on Tuesday as another major aftershock rocked eastern Japan, swaying buildings in central Tokyo and closing Narita airport runways.

Japan is considering raising the severity level of its nuclear crisis to put it on a par with the Chernobyl accident 25 years ago, the worst atomic power disaster in history, Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday.

Operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, said on Tuesday that its workers were fighting a fire near damaged reactor No. 4.

It was unclear how serious the fire was.


An aftershock measuring 6.6 quake hit Fukushima prefecture on Monday evening temporarily cutting power and forcing workers to evacuate the nuclear plant.

Nearly 28,000 Japanese are dead or missing and the world's third-largest economy is reeling with power blackouts, factory c closures and cuts to supply lines.

The Kyodo reported on Tuesday that the high levels of radiation that have been released by the Fukushima Daiichi plant meant it could raise the severity level from 5 to the highest 7, the same as the 1986 Chernobyl accident.

"It has been obvious all along this was a 7. There are three reactors that are not being cooled (No. 1, 2 &3) and four fuel pools too (No. 1, 2, 3, and especially 4)," said Arnie Gundersen, a 29-year veteran of the nuclear industry who worked on reactors similar to those at Daiichi and who is now chief engineer at Fairewinds Associates Inc of Burlington, Vermont.

He said that means there were at least seven cores or pools that had been in difficulty. He noted that at Chernobyl it was only one reactor that created the problem.

A spokesman for the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, Japan's nuclear safety watchdog, said he was unaware of any move by the government to raise the level.

EVACUATION ZONE WIDENS
Because of accumulated radiation contamination, the government is encouraging people to leave certain areas beyond its 20 km (12 mile) exclusion zone around the plant. Thousands of people could be affected by the move.

Link -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/japan-idUSL3E7FB2TZ20110412?pageNumber...
======================================
At this point, even iF the TEPCO or government spokesperson was named FRANK CARE, I would have great difficulty in believing that he would be FRANK & Honest, in passing on all of the corect information!


Japan Raises Nuclear Accident to Chernobyl Level on Radiation


April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan raised the severity rating of its nuclear crisis to the highest, matching the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, as increasing radiation prompts the government to widen the evacuation zone and aftershocks rocked the country.

Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency raised the rating to 7, a spokesman said at a news conference in Tokyo today.

The government “is at last beginning to wake up to the reality of the scale of the disaster,” said Philip White, International Liaison Officer at the Citizens’ Nuclear Information Center, a Tokyo-based group opposed to atomic energy. “Its belated move to evacuate people from a larger area around the nuclear plant, likewise, is a recognition that the impact on public health is potentially much greater than it first acknowledged.”

Contaminated Water
Tepco is using emergency equipment to cool reactors damaged at the atomic station after backup generators were knocked out by the tsunami.

The utility is trying to remove highly contaminated water that’s holding up efforts to get the cooling pumps working and prevent further explosions after blasts damaged reactor containment vessels, releasing radiation into the air and sea and tainting food. Yesterday’s earthquake halted the pumping of contaminated water from the No. 2 reactor, Tepco said.

About 60,000 metric tons of contaminated water lies in the basements of turbine buildings and trenches around the No. 1, 2 and 3 reactors, the company said last week.

“If it doesn’t find a long term solution to the large quantities of highly radioactive water flowing out of the reactors, the scale of the disaster could end up exceeding Chernobyl,”
White, from the Citizens’ Nuclear Information Center, said by telephone today.

Link -
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at4GqCg0PphI
======================
A few observations -
1) It is intresting that the spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, in the first article, didn't know that an upgrade to INES 7 was being considered, then a couple of hours later, it was upgraded. Timing perhaps, OR?

2) After steadfastly refusing, for a whole month, that this was/is a really large problem,
why move on the INES 7 admission NOW?
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #396 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:32pm
 
Because it has been emitting radiation for a month, apparently. That triggers the INES 7 rating.
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #397 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:44pm
 



perceptions_now wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:27pm:
======================
A few observations -
1) It is intresting that the spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, in the first article, didn't know that an upgrade to INES 7 was being considered, then a couple of hours later, it was upgraded. Timing perhaps, OR?

2) After steadfastly refusing, for a whole month, that this was/is a really large problem,
why move on the INES 7 admission NOW?





Yer, why the jump from a 5 to a 7!?

Not that many would have believed it was less than a 6 over the past week or so anyway - but the skip of the 6 is 'interesting'...to say the least...

As for theory of the month ticking over: if this is the case, then why weren't experts or authorities foreshadowing that this would trigger a level 7 ranking!?



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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #398 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:58pm
 
What Muso said...
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #399 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:04pm
 
Equitist wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:44pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:27pm:
======================
A few observations -
1) It is intresting that the spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, in the first article, didn't know that an upgrade to INES 7 was being considered, then a couple of hours later, it was upgraded. Timing perhaps, OR?

2) After steadfastly refusing, for a whole month, that this was/is a really large problem,
why move on the INES 7 admission NOW?





Yer, why the jump from a 5 to a 7!?

Not that many would have believed it was less than a 6 over the past week or so anyway - but the skip of the 6 is 'interesting'...to say the least...

As for theory of the month ticking over: if this is the case, then why weren't experts or authorities foreshadowing that this would trigger a level 7 ranking!?





Some independent nuclear industry experts had this incident at level 5 from the moment radioctive steam was vented from the overheating reactors and spent fuel rod starage pools.

Level 7 was hit pretty much once the explosions occurred - especially after the big 2nd explosion.

At this point the Japnaese Authrorities were reluctant to go above level 4 (even though the French had it at level 6)

The excuse was preventing panic in the pubic

If I lived in Japan or ner Fukushima I would want to knwo EXACLTY what was going on.

Not some petty 20km exclusion zone and for residents int he 20-30km zone to stay indoors - this isnt good enough.

I would take the advice of Greenpeace and have a full medical check up ASAP to detemine my current health condition and then provide samples or home soil, food and water for testing. Keep all records in case you end up with cancer down the track - then at least you have some records of what you were exposed

Do NOT trrust anything TEPCO are saying. They are in legal mitigation and corporate profit harm minimisation mode. Hence the lack of any knowledge and data gievn to the public.

I understand the even YouTube content conerning the Fuksuhima disaster is being censored in Japan
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #400 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:08pm
 


muso wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 10:52am:
Equitist wrote on Apr 9th, 2011 at 6:30pm:
Apparently, it will take experts at least 10 years to decommission the 4 troubled Fukushima reactors and clean up the contaminated site...



That's about how long it takes to decommission any other Nuclear Power station. In fact they typically take 20 years with Safestor these days.




I believe you - but I was going on reports of tenders made in relation to the Fukushima plant...

Either way, I note some relevant extracts here: -

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/containing-a-calamity-creates-another-nuclear-...

Quote:
Containing a calamity creates another nuclear nightmare

Julie Makinen, Ralph Vartabedian

April 9, 2011

TOKYO: For nearly four weeks, Japanese emergency crews have been spraying water on the damaged Fukushima nuclear reactors in a desperate attempt to avert the calamity of a full meltdown.

The improvised solution to one nuclear nightmare is spawning another: what to do with the millions of litres of water that has become highly radioactive as it washes through the plant.

The water being used to try to cool the reactors and the dangerous spent fuel rods is leaking through fissures inside the plant, seeping through tunnels and passageways to the lowest levels, where it is accumulating into a sea of lethal waste. No one is sure how to get rid of it safely.

''There is nothing like this, on this scale, that we have ever attempted to do before,'' says Robert Alvarez, a former United States assistant secretary of Energy.

Japanese officials estimate about 57 million litres of highly radioactive water have accumulated and hundreds of thousands of litres are added daily as the operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, continues to feed coolant into the leaky structures.

Ultimately, the water will have to be stored and processed and the highly radioactive substances solidified, a job that experts say almost must be handled in a specially designed industrial complex. Cleaning the water could take many years, if not decades to complete. The cost could run into tens of billions of dollars.

The immediate problem facing the Japanese is how to store all that water until the reactors and the spent fuel pools are brought under control. The plant's main storage tanks are nearly full. To make space earlier this week, the company released 11.5 megalitres of the least contaminated water into the ocean, expecting that its radioactive elements will be diluted.

But international law forbids Japan from dumping contaminated water into the ocean if there are viable technical solutions available later.

So the plant operator is considering bringing in barges and tanks, including a so-called megafloat that can hold about 9.5 megalitres. Yet even using barges and tanks to handle the water temporarily creates a future problem of how to dispose of the contaminated vessels.

US and Japanese experts say the key to solving the disposal problem involves reducing the volume of water by concentrating the radioactive elements so they can be solidified into a safer, dry form. But waste experts disagree on exactly how to do that.

The difficulty of concentrating and then solidifying the contaminants depends on how much radioactivity is in the water, the type of isotopes in the water and whether the work can be done on site.

Edward Morse, a professor of nuclear engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, said the water needs to be diverted soon into a concrete-lined holding pond, where natural evaporation can help reduce its volume.

Even there, it could take up to 10 years before the radioactivity would decay enough for the material to be handled, he said. Building a storage pond ''buys you time''.

Other experts disagree, saying exposing the material to open air could allow iodine and other volatile substances to drift off the site, adding to the remote contamination that is already spreading dozens of kilometres from the plant.

Nuclear power plants normally have systems in place to treat tritium on site. But the condition and capacity of that at Fukushima are not known.

Professor Morse and Youichi Enokida, a nuclear chemist from Nagoya University, contend that if the water can be concentrated, it can then be rendered into a dry form or even turned into glass, as is planned at other contaminated sites around the world. This process, called vitrification, is expensive and requires a small scale industrial facility to accomplish.

The alternative - processing the waste elsewhere in Japan - is likely to be controversial. ''The fishermen will protest, this is inevitable,'' Professor Enokida said.

Professor Morse said there would be at least six months of emergency stabilisation, about two years of temporary remediation and up to 30 years of full-scale clean-up. Furthermore, the high levels of ground contamination at the site are raising concerns about the viability of individuals to work at the site in coming decades.

A workforce in the hundreds or even thousands would take years or decades to clean up, experts said.

Los Angeles Times


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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #401 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:18pm
 


Foolosophy wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:04pm:
Equitist wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:44pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:27pm:
======================
A few observations -
1) It is intresting that the spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, in the first article, didn't know that an upgrade to INES 7 was being considered, then a couple of hours later, it was upgraded. Timing perhaps, OR?

2) After steadfastly refusing, for a whole month, that this was/is a really large problem,
why move on the INES 7 admission NOW?





Yer, why the jump from a 5 to a 7!?

Not that many would have believed it was less than a 6 over the past week or so anyway - but the skip of the 6 is 'interesting'...to say the least...

As for theory of the month ticking over: if this is the case, then why weren't experts or authorities foreshadowing that this would trigger a level 7 ranking!?





Some independent nuclear industry experts had this incident at level 5 from the moment radioctive steam was vented from the overheating reactors and spent fuel rod starage pools.

Level 7 was hit pretty much once the explosions occurred - especially after the big 2nd explosion.

At this point the Japnaese Authrorities were reluctant to go above level 4 (even though the French had it at level 6)

The excuse was preventing panic in the pubic

If I lived in Japan or ner Fukushima I would want to knwo EXACLTY what was going on.

Not some petty 20km exclusion zone and for residents int he 20-30km zone to stay indoors - this isnt good enough.

I would take the advice of Greenpeace and have a full medical check up ASAP to detemine my current health condition and then provide samples or home soil, food and water for testing. Keep all records in case you end up with cancer down the track - then at least you have some records of what you were exposed

Do NOT trrust anything TEPCO are saying. They are in legal mitigation and corporate profit harm minimisation mode. Hence the lack of any knowledge and data gievn to the public.

I understand the even YouTube content conerning the Fuksuhima disaster is being censored in Japan




Hmmnnn....within a week of the the quake, Australian, US and other experts were recommending an 80km exclusion zone...

Three 3 weeks (and numerous incidents) later, the Japanese Govt still hasn't followed suit...

For such an ancient, health-conscious and long-lived civilisation, it is surprising that Japan was so unwilling to create short-medium-term inconvenience and costs (and perhaps panic), given that the longer-term costs could compound considerably as a result of recklessly-delayed evacuations...

How bizarre!?

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #402 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:28pm
 
Equitist wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:18pm:
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:04pm:
Equitist wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:44pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:27pm:
======================
A few observations -
1) It is intresting that the spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, in the first article, didn't know that an upgrade to INES 7 was being considered, then a couple of hours later, it was upgraded. Timing perhaps, OR?

2) After steadfastly refusing, for a whole month, that this was/is a really large problem,
why move on the INES 7 admission NOW?





Yer, why the jump from a 5 to a 7!?

Not that many would have believed it was less than a 6 over the past week or so anyway - but the skip of the 6 is 'interesting'...to say the least...

As for theory of the month ticking over: if this is the case, then why weren't experts or authorities foreshadowing that this would trigger a level 7 ranking!?





Some independent nuclear industry experts had this incident at level 5 from the moment radioctive steam was vented from the overheating reactors and spent fuel rod starage pools.

Level 7 was hit pretty much once the explosions occurred - especially after the big 2nd explosion.

At this point the Japnaese Authrorities were reluctant to go above level 4 (even though the French had it at level 6)

The excuse was preventing panic in the pubic

If I lived in Japan or ner Fukushima I would want to knwo EXACLTY what was going on.

Not some petty 20km exclusion zone and for residents int he 20-30km zone to stay indoors - this isnt good enough.

I would take the advice of Greenpeace and have a full medical check up ASAP to detemine my current health condition and then provide samples or home soil, food and water for testing. Keep all records in case you end up with cancer down the track - then at least you have some records of what you were exposed

Do NOT trrust anything TEPCO are saying. They are in legal mitigation and corporate profit harm minimisation mode. Hence the lack of any knowledge and data gievn to the public.

I understand the even YouTube content conerning the Fuksuhima disaster is being censored in Japan




Hmmnnn....within a week of the the quake, Australian, US and other experts were recommending an 80km exclusion zone...

Three 3 weeks (and numerous incidents) later, the Japanese Govt still hasn't followed suit...

For such an ancient, health-conscious and long-lived civilisation, it is surprising that Japan was so unwilling to create short-medium-term inconvenience and costs (and perhaps panic), given that the longer-term costs could compound considerably as a result of recklessly-delayed evacuations...

How bizarre!?



its not really Bizarre.

its standard corporate legal mitigation.

Even the dumping of 11,500 tonnes of radioactive water into the ocean was purely about chosing the cheapest method to deal with a serious problem that has the minimal effect of the profit margin at the next AGM

In this way at least some of the CEO bonuses can be preserved.

Its the only responsibility that a corporation has - PROFIT

Remember, legally what TEPCO is agreeing to as a possible claim area is the 20km region. In fact even the 2-30 km region they are saying that if you get any health problems its YOUR fault for not staying indoors.

Keep an inventory of EVERYTHING you do and eat - where you stayed and what were the radaition levels during that time (even if you have to buy a Geiger Counter yourself and film the readings)

if you have a familiy of 3 young children and 2 get some sort of cancer in the next couple of years I think that you would want some answers.

(Chernobyl is still a cover up - although over the past decade event he Russians are conceding that there were facts concealed after the Chernobyl disaster. There are also reports surfacing that show the real death toll from the radiation fall out)
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« Last Edit: Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:34pm by Foolosophy »  
 
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #403 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:35pm
 
muso wrote on Apr 12th, 2011 at 1:32pm:
Because it has been emitting radiation for a month, apparently. That triggers the INES 7 rating.


Really?

Where do you get that from?

The only reference I can see, is -
• Major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.

If there is a 1 month criteria on emitting radiation, for INES 7, then it would have been obvious that was going to happen, pretty much from day 1, but it hasn't been mentioned?  
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #404 - Apr 12th, 2011 at 2:41pm
 
I've been following the monitoring results since day 1. Before anyone says that they are tainted, these measurements are being taken by different agencies, and although TEPCO are doing some of the work (especially the sea samples), this work is to some extent duplicated by MEXT and the Police and there seems to be some consistency with the reporting with the occasional outlier.

The highest readings are around 30km North West and 30km NNW from the plant, in other words  right on the boundary. The readings at that location have gone from 38uSv/hr to 23.9uSv / hr in the last 3 weeks. That decay is consistent with the presence of I-131. Now Cs-137 has a half life of about 30 years, so I'd expect the dose rates to level off at about 15uSv/hr.

There are also a few areas around 3- 4uSv/hr around 40km North West of the plant.  It corresponds to a village of about 10,000 inhabitants. At that level, the upheavals associated with evacuation are likely to have more far ranging effects than the radiation.  Younger people and pregnant women should have been advised to leave. I'm not sure if that has happened.  at this level, the dose rate is still less than the annual dose rate for a radiation worker, so the cancer risk is barely discernable.

The volatile and soluble isotopes of main concern are Cesium 137 and Iodine 131. Other isotopes such as Strontium -90 will be present at much lower abundances. Strontium has a similar chemistry to calcium, so it's far less soluble than Cesium and much less likely to be mobilized by steam. 

In my opinion, this incident is unlikely to have any significant consequences outside the exclusion zone.

If you compare it to the Chernobyl incident, there were hundreds of fatalities one month on. 

Although it doesn't sound particularly nice, the diluting effect of the sea will have a significant influence in reducing the magnitude of the releases.

So far, there has been no Uranium or Plutonium detected in any of the samples outside the plant area.

The other positive developments are that Unit 3 is getting very close to being classified as Cold Shutdown (Less than 95 degrees.  That's the unit that uses MOX fuel.

The only workers who received radiation burns were released from hospital the next day. Nobody has yet had an exposure so severe as to cause radiation sickness.

The 19 people who have received between 100 and 200mSv total dose are unlikely to develop cancer from that cause. That kind of dose would increase the cancer risk by about 1 in 1000.   

That's not to say that all the problems are over - not by a long shot.  The status of containment in Unit 1 is a big concern, because it was built with significantly less secondary containment.  If any cracks have developed and there is a loss of containment of reactor fuel, then there is a significant chance of groundwater contamination.
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