Australian Politics Forum - Fukushima

muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #165 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:33am

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:19am:

For a striking illustration of the differences, between organic and inorganic accumulation of radioactivity, check out these two readings - taken a very small distance apart...

http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/image40.1.jpg

Quote:

If we take a Geiger counter reading on the road, then one on the grass and compare the two readings, the grass is 8.5 times more than the asphalt, because radiation becomes concentrated in living organisms. The source of this radiation is Americium.

Source: http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter40.html

- how much of it is due to Potassium-40 and Carbon-14? By the way, do you happen to have any Americium-241 in your home?

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Equitist

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #166 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:55am

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:27am:

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:06am:

I spent quite a bit of time looking through Elena Filatova's web-site last night (but I only got through a small part of it)...

One day, I will visit that area. In some ways it's hauntingly beautiful. They are just starting to open it up to tourism thia year. There are still some hot-spots, but radiation levels are normal in most areas.

Elena tends to take pictures of dead wolves and things like that. In a natural landscape with no humans around, you will find dead animals lying around.

There are a lot of conflicting reports about the so-called dead zone. The carp in the streams are probably the most seriously affected. There is plenty of evidence of genetic disruption, but several generations on, there is no evidence of morphological changes. Some of the trees in the so-called red forest show some mutation - their branches divide slightly differently from normal, but there is no evidence of mutations in the fauna.

The people who have been passing through the exclusion zone up to now have been 18 to 30 year olds on motorbikes, probably in search of adventure.

My sentiments almost-exactly!

Believe it or not, I even used the term "hauntingly beautiful" to describe to my own children the experience of looking through her site...

When I mentioned to my older son, that I'd be curious to go there, he did a double-take of disbelief - and mouthed "WTF"...

Actually, the pics that I looked through last night on her site were mostly of abandoned landscapes and a few building interiors (from memory, there were less than half a dozen of dead and/or mutant animals and humans - and an equal number of thriving living creatures)...

I intend to look through more of her visual diary...

In the meantime, check out this pic of two elderly women in the process of evacuation - note that the woman in front appears to be shielding a cat from the toxic rain that has produced large radioactive particulate depositions on her clothing...

Source: http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter14.html

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Equitist

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #167 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:00am

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:33am:

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 8:19am:

For a striking illustration of the differences, between organic and inorganic accumulation of radioactivity, check out these two readings - taken a very small distance apart...

http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/image40.1.jpg

Quote:

If we take a Geiger counter reading on the road, then one on the grass and compare the two readings, the grass is 8.5 times more than the asphalt, because radiation becomes concentrated in living organisms. The source of this radiation is Americium.

Source: http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter40.html

- how much of it is due to Potassium-40 and Carbon-14? By the way, do you happen to have any Americium-241 in your home?

Not sure what you were getting at there, Muso, but isn't Americium-241 simply a temporary state in the continuum of radioactive decay that is bound to be found in the zones affected by the Chernobyl disaster!?

As an illustration of bioaccumulation, I think that the image is nothing more and nothing less than poignant...

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muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #168 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:01am

Incidentally, you can get all the radiological monitoring results from the provinces around Fukushima here (it's a lot of data):

http://www.mext.go.jp/english/radioactivity_level/detail/1303962.htm

on Chernobyl:

Quote:

The recovery of affected biota in the CEZ has been confounded by the overriding response to the removal of human activities (e.g. termination of agricultural and industrial
activities and the accompanying environmental pollution in the most affected area). As a result, the populations of many plants
and animals have expanded, and the present environmental conditions have had a positive impact on the biota in the CEZ.

Source: ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT AND THEIR REMEDIATION:
TWENTY YEARS OF EXPERIENCE
Report of the Chernobyl Forum Expert Group ‘Environment’

In summary, the previous presence of human beings in the area had a much more serious effect on the endemic plant and animal species than the residual radiation from the accident.

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« Last Edit: Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 10:17am by muso »

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muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #169 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:17am

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:00am:

Not sure what you were getting at there, Muso, but isn't Americium-241 simply a temporary state in the continuum of radioactive decay that is bound to be found in the zones affected by the Chernobyl disaster!?

As an illustration of bioaccumulation, I think that the image is nothing more and nothing less than poignant...

I wouldn't accept all the technical details from that site as gospel.

I meant - do you have any smoke detectors in your home? Americium-241 has a half life of about 400 years and it's used in smoke detectors.

By the way, if you hold a survey meter against bitumen and against your skin with the beta slide open, you'll get similar results. I couldn't read the units on that meter, but if it's microsieverts per hour, then both results are normal.

One of my roles is that of a Hazmat advisor to the Queensland Government. We go through refresher training every year, and part of this involves some kind of practical exercise, including the use of a survey meter to locate a hidden radioactive source for example. I'm one of a group of people on call for chemical, biological and radiological incidents.

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« Last Edit: Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:33am by muso »

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Foolosophy

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #170 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 11:17am

I wonder what sort of HAZOP analysis was carreid out for the Fukushima plant? Especially in relation to earthquakes and any tusinamis that may follow?

Why would a few blades of grass generate a reading of 10 times that of the surrounding bitumen ground?

This is the problem with the cover up of the Chernobyl disaster. The evidence is still there for anyone to detect and analyse. In addition, the death and injury statistics are all there.

Remember, an internal alpha emitter such as Plutonium can kill the cells that are very close or adjacent to it, but as you move away from the alpha source the cells can be damaged genetically and still remain viable to cause cancerous growths etc.

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Foolosophy

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #171 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 11:30am

"Chernobyl was a dirty bomb explosion. The next dirty bomb is Fukushima and it will cost much more in economic and human terms," Natalia Mironova said.

Ms Mironova is a thermodynamic engineer who became a leading anti-nuclear activist in Russia in the wake of the accident at the Soviet-built reactor in Ukraine in 1986.

"Fukushima is much bigger than Chernobyl," she said, adding that the Japanese nuclear crisis was likely to eclipse Chernobyl on the seven-point international scale used to rate nuclear disasters.

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Equitist

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #172 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 11:35am

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:17am:

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:00am:

Not sure what you were getting at there, Muso, but isn't Americium-241 simply a temporary state in the continuum of radioactive decay that is bound to be found in the zones affected by the Chernobyl disaster!?

As an illustration of bioaccumulation, I think that the image is nothing more and nothing less than poignant...

I wouldn't accept all the technical details from that site as gospel.

I meant - do you have any smoke detectors in your home? Americium-241 has a half life of about 400 years and it's used in smoke detectors.

By the way, if you hold a survey meter against bitumen and against your skin with the beta slide open, you'll get similar results. I couldn't read the units on that meter, but if it's microsieverts per hour, then both results are normal.

One of my roles is that of a Hazmat advisor to the Queensland Government. We go through refresher training every year, and part of this involves some kind of practical exercise, including the use of a survey meter to locate a hidden radioactive source for example. I'm one of a group of people on call for chemical, biological and radiological incidents.

Thanks, Muso, for your ongoing input - which I genuinely value, given your knowledge and experience in the field...

I, for one, want to know what is really going on in and around the Japanese nuke plants and what the potential ramifications are - I am keen to learn about both the best and worst case scenarios...

Given the history of secrecy and misinformation in the highly-invested nuke industry, I do not trust them to provide full, frank and timely disclosure of the actual situation at any particular point in time - nor of the likely dangerous developments nor potential catastrophic outcomes...

To date, most of the developments at the Fuku plants have proven to be worse than originally foreshadowed - and it is clear to me that there are significant gaps and unacceptable delays in the information being collected and released over time...

I believe that the Japanese Govt has been overly-inclined to focus on best-case scenarios - rather than erring on the side of caution - especially in declining to accept advice to increase the evacuation zone...

My gut-feeling is that these Fuku reactor incidents will ultimately prove to be far more serious than we have been led to believe to date - both severally and collectively - and perhaps that the worst critical incident/s is/are yet to come...

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muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #173 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:03pm

From my experience in industry, there will probably be gaps and they will tend to paint a rosy picture, but nobody in their right minds will release deliberately false information, especially in the presence of so many observers.

As far as anti-nuclear advocacy groups, some of the total nonsense I've read had been way off. For the sake of brevity, I'll call them the godzilla reports.

Somewhere in between, it's possible to use the facts to piece together a picture of what is possible and what is not.

The radiological data I've seen support the view that what we're seeing is a result of fuel rods being in the absence of coolant for some time. There are pockets of criticality within the reactor, and some of these might be in the base of the reactor. The steam releases volatiles, such as iodine, and highly soluble byproducts such as cesium hydroxide and less soluble products such as strontium hydroxide. These are entrained in the steam as particulates. The exposed Uranium dioxide itself and the unreacted MOX (which contains plutonium) will mostly tend to crumble and fall to the bottom of the reactor.

The reactors are probably in a constant boiling state, and feed water is being introduced at a rate of about 8 cubic metres per hour.

From the facts presented to date, I don't believe that Reactor RPV itself is damaged. The loss of containment (of water) is in Units 2 and 3. It seems more likely that the loss of water is not from the base of the RPV otherwise there would be a water level of zero in the RPV.

In the case of all three reactors, approximately half of the fuel rods are above water.

TEPCO say that the containment is compromised in Reactor 2 and 3, but give no information for Unit 1. I suspect that the older Unit 1 was built without concrete containment, and that there will be some leakage into the water table by the cooling water. The main concern is with the daughter isotopes.

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« Last Edit: Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:19pm by muso »

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Foolosophy

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #174 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:08pm

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 11:35am:

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:17am:

Equitist wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 9:00am:

Not sure what you were getting at there, Muso, but isn't Americium-241 simply a temporary state in the continuum of radioactive decay that is bound to be found in the zones affected by the Chernobyl disaster!?

As an illustration of bioaccumulation, I think that the image is nothing more and nothing less than poignant...

I wouldn't accept all the technical details from that site as gospel.

I meant - do you have any smoke detectors in your home? Americium-241 has a half life of about 400 years and it's used in smoke detectors.

By the way, if you hold a survey meter against bitumen and against your skin with the beta slide open, you'll get similar results. I couldn't read the units on that meter, but if it's microsieverts per hour, then both results are normal.

One of my roles is that of a Hazmat advisor to the Queensland Government. We go through refresher training every year, and part of this involves some kind of practical exercise, including the use of a survey meter to locate a hidden radioactive source for example. I'm one of a group of people on call for chemical, biological and radiological incidents.

Thanks, Muso, for your ongoing input - which I genuinely value, given your knowledge and experience in the field...

I, for one, want to know what is really going on in and around the Japanese nuke plants and what the potential ramifications are - I am keen to learn about both the best and worst case scenarios...

Given the history of secrecy and misinformation in the highly-invested nuke industry, I do not trust them to provide full, frank and timely disclosure of the actual situation at any particular point in time - nor of the likely dangerous developments nor potential catastrophic outcomes...

To date, most of the developments at the Fuku plants have proven to be worse than originally foreshadowed - and it is clear to me that there are significant gaps and unacceptable delays in the information being collected and released over time...

I believe that the Japanese Govt has been overly-inclined to focus on best-case scenarios - rather than erring on the side of caution - especially in declining to accept advice to increase the evacuation zone...

My gut-feeling is that these Fuku reactor incidents will ultimately prove to be far more serious than we have been led to believe to date - both severally and collectively - and perhaps that the worst critical incident/s is/are yet to come...

You can be guaranteed one thing - A Cover Up on an iternational scale so that the public can be continualy kept in the dark over the real damge, death toll and health implications.

You can be guaranteed the WHO will not be given permission by the IAEA to conduct a thorough investigation and health impact study on the FUkushima disaster (just like they were refused access to the Chernobyl disaster)

You can be guaranteed that the nuclear power industry will step up its propaganda campaign and spin on a global scale.

You can be guaranteed that many 100's of thousands perhaps millions will die as a direct result of teh fukushima radiological release (which has only just commenced)

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Fukushima - Consequences? Reply #175 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:12pm By the way, here is a schematic. Maybe you can work out for yourself why you can't get a molten mass at 2500-3000 degrees C escaping the base of the RPV and still have the vessels half full of water.
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muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #176 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:16pm

Foolosophy wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:08pm:

You can be guaranteed that many 100's of thousands perhaps millions will die as a direct result of teh fukushima radiological release (which has only just commenced)

Ahem. I see that you've conveniently skipped over my previous post and questions on the death rate at Chernobyl.

- and I was just about to recommend a good product for removing egg from your face too. Wink

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Foolosophy

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #177 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:17pm

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:12pm:

By the way, here is a schematic. Maybe you can work out for yourself why you can't get a molten mass at 2500-3000 degrees C escaping the base of the RPV and still have the vessels half full of water.

I realise this - but we dont know the water level history of the reactors prior and post the sea water injection.

How long do you think it will take before the fuel can be safely removed?

50 years?

100 years?

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muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #178 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:29pm

Foolosophy wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:17pm:

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:12pm:

By the way, here is a schematic. Maybe you can work out for yourself why you can't get a molten mass at 2500-3000 degrees C escaping the base of the RPV and still have the vessels half full of water.

I realise this - but we dont know the water level history of the reactors prior and post the sea water injection.

How long do you think it will take before the fuel can be safely removed?

50 years?

100 years?

Well the problem with Chernobyl was that of getting close enough to the reactor. That's not so much of an issue here. It's too early to say when they will get around to removing the fuel. There are still techniques that could be used.

I hope that they don't end up pouring concrete into it.

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muso

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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #179 - Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:30pm

muso wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:16pm:

Foolosophy wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2011 at 1:08pm:

You can be guaranteed that many 100's of thousands perhaps millions will die as a direct result of teh fukushima radiological release (which has only just commenced)

Ahem. I see that you've conveniently skipped over my previous post and questions on the death rate at Chernobyl.

- and I was just about to recommend a good product for removing egg from your face too. Wink

.

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