muso wrote on Apr 1
st, 2011 at 8:09pm:
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 1
st, 2011 at 6:45pm:
The Russians themselves have attributed almost 1 milion deaths to Chernobyl.
As a result of what? Thyroid cancer? I don't have the paper, but I understand that there was an increased burden of thyroid cancer of about 6,000. In 96% of cases, thyroid is survivable. It can be successfully treated. This 2009 paper that you mention is the first I've heard of with numbers of this magnitude.
Now Lung cancers are generally attributed to cigarettes. The death rate correlates well with the number of smokers. In Europe it accounts for approximately 1.2 million per year or 13% of all deaths.
Do you have a breakdown of the causes of death? Do they include suicides? Suicide rates in Russia are pretty high on a worldwide basis - about the same as in Australia.
we know that radioactive Iodine is linked with thyroid cancer, cesium 137 with brain tumours, strontium90 with bone cance and leukemia, etc etc etc
The NY Academy of Science study paper is basically a summary of over 5000 Russian papers that relate to the Chernobyl disaster.
Its these alpha emitter (such as Plutonium) and internal emitters that do the damage (with infection lag time periods ranging from 2 to 60 years)
The insane thing about Plutonium and other highly carcinogenic alpha emitters is that they can do damage in one person - kill that person and when they are buried or even cremated, the Plutonium is re-released into the environment for others to be effected.
I can see a hydrogen explosion developing in the fukushima plant. Especially if the fuel rods have melted though the primary containment vessel and accumulated on the concrete base below.