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Fukushima - Consequences? (Read 102633 times)
Foolosophy
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #150 - Apr 1st, 2011 at 9:33pm
 
muso wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 8:09pm:
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 6:45pm:
The Russians themselves have attributed almost 1 milion deaths to Chernobyl.


As a result of what? Thyroid cancer? I don't have the paper, but I understand that there was an increased burden of thyroid cancer of about 6,000.  In 96% of cases, thyroid is survivable. It can be successfully treated.  This 2009 paper that you mention is the first I've heard of with numbers of this magnitude.  

Now Lung cancers are generally attributed to cigarettes. The death rate correlates well with the number of smokers. In Europe it accounts for approximately 1.2 million per year or 13% of all deaths.

Do you have a breakdown of the causes of death? Do they include suicides? Suicide rates in Russia are pretty high on a worldwide basis - about the same as in Australia.



we know that radioactive Iodine is linked with thyroid cancer, cesium 137 with brain tumours, strontium90 with bone cance and leukemia, etc etc etc

The NY Academy of Science study paper is basically a summary of over 5000 Russian papers that relate to the Chernobyl disaster.

Its these alpha emitter (such as Plutonium) and internal emitters that do the damage (with infection lag time periods ranging from 2 to 60 years)

The insane thing about Plutonium and other highly carcinogenic alpha emitters is that they can do damage in one person - kill that person and when they are buried or even cremated, the Plutonium is re-released into the environment for others to be effected.

I can see a hydrogen explosion developing in the fukushima plant. Especially if the fuel rods have melted though the primary containment vessel and accumulated on the concrete base below.


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Equitist
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #151 - Apr 1st, 2011 at 9:53pm
 



I happened across this fascinating web-site tonight - inclusive of some amazing pics...

http://www.elenafilatova.com/

I find this one particularly haunting...

...

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Belgarion
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #152 - Apr 1st, 2011 at 11:34pm
 
The TV series, "Life After People" used the Chernobyl exclusion zone as an example of how quickly nature reasserts itself. Very interesting. Maybe the same thing will happen in Fukushima?
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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #153 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:40am
 
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 6:45pm:
muso - you need to explain why the WHO was not allowed to carry out a proper investigation on the Chernobyl disaster by the IAEA (whose job is to actually promote nuclear energy)


What's your reference for that?
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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #154 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:51am
 
Belgarion wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 11:34pm:
The TV series, "Life After People" used the Chernobyl exclusion zone as an example of how quickly nature reasserts itself. Very interesting. Maybe the same thing will happen in Fukushima?


I don't know if they will have an exclusion zone around Fukushima for any prolonged period.  Time will tell. The most recent monitoring results show a downwards trend.

The interesting point is that no alpha particles have been detected in any of the environmental samples outside the plant.

http://www.slideshare.net/iaea/radiological-monitoring-and-consequences-of-the-f...
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Foolosophy
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #155 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:52am
 
muso wrote on Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:40am:
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 6:45pm:
muso - you need to explain why the WHO was not allowed to carry out a proper investigation on the Chernobyl disaster by the IAEA (whose job is to actually promote nuclear energy)


What's your reference for that?


Show me the medical study carried out by the WHO on Chernobyl.


its been 25 years


its 985,000 deaths so far and still no WHO investigation?

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Foolosophy
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #156 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:58am
 
Belgarion wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 11:34pm:
The TV series, "Life After People" used the Chernobyl exclusion zone as an example of how quickly nature reasserts itself. Very interesting. Maybe the same thing will happen in Fukushima?


...but after 985,000 human deaths and counting
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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #157 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 7:21am
 
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:52am:
muso wrote on Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:40am:
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 1st, 2011 at 6:45pm:
muso - you need to explain why the WHO was not allowed to carry out a proper investigation on the Chernobyl disaster by the IAEA (whose job is to actually promote nuclear energy)


What's your reference for that?


Show me the medical study carried out by the WHO on Chernobyl.


its been 25 years


its 985,000 deaths so far and still no WHO investigation?



I must get a copy of that report. The death toll seems to be at odds with everything else I've read.
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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #158 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 7:34am
 
By the way, you do realise that the radiation levels over most of the US are of the order of 10 times greater than the latest figures from just outside the exclusion zone?  They quote an average dose rate of around 2.4uSv/hr compared to 0.1- 0.3uSv/hr around Fukushima.


...

You can get the latest monitoring data here:

http://www.slideshare.net/iaea/radiological-monitoring-and-consequences-of-the-f...
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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #159 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 7:38am
 
Foolosophy wrote on Apr 2nd, 2011 at 6:52am:
Show me the medical study carried out by the WHO on Chernobyl.




You mean this one?

http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/chernobyl/en/
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Equitist
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #160 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 7:48am
 


muso wrote on Apr 2nd, 2011 at 7:34am:
By the way, you do realise that the radiation levels over most of the US are of the order of 10 times greater than the latest figures from just outside the exclusion zone?  They quote an average dose rate of around 2.4uSv/hr compared to 0.1- 0.3uSv/hr around Fukushima.




What is the data from the 1930's - in the US and elsewhere - before humanity began to wantonly detonate over 2,000 nuke test bombs across the globe?


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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #161 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 7:55am
 
Now I see where you're getting the figure of 985,000 from. You're either reading the information directly and misinterpreting it, or getting it from some anti-nuclear advocacy site that is doing the same.

Note the distinction between background deaths and predicted excess cancer deaths.  The latter is around the 10,000 mark (9335 if you add up the column), but even that assumes a death rate of around 50% when the figure is much lower than that.

OK, time to put your cards on the table. Where did you get the assertion that there have been 985,000 recorded deaths so far, Foolosophy? - because the figure looks suspiciously like the number of background deaths (the ones that would have occurred anyway)
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« Last Edit: Apr 2nd, 2011 at 8:05am by muso »  

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Equitist
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #162 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 8:06am
 


I spent quite a bit of time looking through Elena Filatova's web-site last night (but I only got through a small part of it)...

It was a simultaneously fascinating, disturbing and cathartic experience - viewing her photographs and reading through her captions and comments...

Here are some particularly-interesting comments and an accompanying map: -

http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter47.html

Quote:
Usually, when they talk about the dead zone, they talk about area that is 30 kms around reactor.

What about this towns and villages? They are 60 kms from reactor.

The Wolves Land is bigger than many think and it keeps on growing. Now days, it spread on 300 kms from South to North and on 100 kms from East on West.

Of course, folks are still living in various places, but you won't find a young and prosperious people with happy faces. They are mostly elderly people who want to spend the rest of their lives in their old homeplace... Some places are clean and safe to live in, but the infrastructure of the region has collapsed and there are no jobs and nothing to attract young people anymore. The region is dying away.

The map below shows the total territory that Chernobyl poisoned with radiation.

There are two wings of the Wolves Land. So far in my reports of "Ghost Town" and "Land of the "Wolves" we have visited only the southern wing which is located in Ukraine and Belorussia.



...

What this map shows, is that some of the most severe contamination exists is in patchy pockets rather than concentric from Chernobyl's ground zero - as a result of the random luck and misfortune of ill-winds (and, presumably, landforms)...

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Equitist
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #163 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 8:19am
 



For a striking illustration of the differences, between organic and inorganic accumulation of radioactivity, check out these two readings - taken a very small distance apart...



...

Quote:
If we take a Geiger counter reading on the road, then one on the grass and compare the two readings, the grass is 8.5 times more than the asphalt, because radiation becomes concentrated in living organisms. The source of this radiation is Americium.


Source: http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter40.html

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muso
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Re: Fukushima - Consequences?
Reply #164 - Apr 2nd, 2011 at 8:27am
 
Equitist wrote on Apr 2nd, 2011 at 8:06am:
I spent quite a bit of time looking through Elena Filatova's web-site last night (but I only got through a small part of it)...



One day, I will visit that area. In some ways it's hauntingly beautiful. They are just starting to open it up to tourism thia year.  There are still some hot-spots, but radiation levels are normal in most areas.

Elena tends to take pictures of dead wolves and things like that.  In a natural landscape with no humans around, you will find dead animals lying around.

There are a lot of conflicting reports about the so-called dead zone. The carp in the streams are probably the most seriously affected. There is plenty of evidence of genetic disruption, but several generations on, there is no evidence of morphological changes.  Some of the trees in the so-called red forest show some mutation - their branches divide slightly differently from normal, but there is no evidence of mutations in the fauna.

The people who have been passing through the exclusion zone up to now have been 18 to 30 year olds on motorbikes, probably in search of adventure.
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