Australian Politics Forum - Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain

muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #60 - Feb 18^th, 2011 at 8:50pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:05pm:

IF there isn't any proof that this hasn't happened before then AGW is NOT a viable concept...
.

Gizmo. Let's illustrate the logic in that statement by taking another example.

Colonel Mustard is lying in the kitchen. He has a dirty great knife sticking out of his chest and he has no pulse.

Your argument is very much like saying: "Unless you can prove that Colonels have never died of natural causes in the past, then you can't prove that he was stabbed. He could have just had a bad cold."

In fact - he might just have a really bad heartburn and he'll snap right out of it as soon as he's finished his scotch on the rocks.

Or if we liken the climate to a parrot (let's say a Norwegian blue) then he is not sleeping, and all the banging on its cage will not waken it up. The parrot is dead. He is not pining for the fjords.

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm

Oh yeah? Well let's see the proof then.... Roll Eyes

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Sir lastnail

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #61 - Feb 18^th, 2011 at 10:25pm

cods wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:43am:

I still say its Mother Nature woody.. how come these guys never mention her? its never a normal part of natural patterns. its always man made..

take comfort in the fact that we will SOON have a all mighty TAX to take care of it.. so you wont have to fret anymore..

wonder if it will go into reverse asap.. or will we have to wait a week or two do you think?...

have someone up in Darwin and they had a cyclone warning.. she said it was a 4 downgraded to a 3 which by all accounts is not as bad as they are used too... I saw some of it on the news and it looked bad enough to me..she laughed when I got worried about her.lots of rain and wind.. but nothing out of the norm for this time of the year..

of course it's mother nature which is reacting to what we are sticking into the atmosphere !!

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"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

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Sir lastnail

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #62 - Feb 18^th, 2011 at 10:31pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 3:32pm:

The problem with the idea of "listen to some science that is suggesting otherwise?" is that the science is doing JUST that.......suggesting..It's not, and cannot BE absolutely set in stone..Simply because there was no one there to observe it..there can't be any 'absolute, 100% proof'...simply because it's a guess....much like the idea of Atlantis, and alien visitations to the Incans and Lake Titicaca or the Nazca desert carvings.....They're 'suggestive', but NOT conclusive..

No one gives a sh.t if you don't accept the evidence as being conclusive.

haven't you studied probability theory and heard of risk mitigation ??

you don't wait around until you get 100% proof of something that could be devastating to the human race before you start taking action just in case the theory is correct.

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"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

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perceptions_now

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #63 - Feb 18^th, 2011 at 11:23pm

muso wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 8:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:05pm:

IF there isn't any proof that this hasn't happened before then AGW is NOT a viable concept...
.

Gizmo. Let's illustrate the logic in that statement by taking another example.

Colonel Mustard is lying in the kitchen. He has a dirty great knife sticking out of his chest and he has no pulse.

Your argument is very much like saying: "Unless you can prove that Colonels have never died of natural causes in the past, then you can't prove that he was stabbed. He could have just had a bad cold."

In fact - he might just have a really bad heartburn and he'll snap right out of it as soon as he's finished his scotch on the rocks.

Or if we liken the climate to a parrot (let's say a Norwegian blue) then he is not sleeping, and all the banging on its cage will not waken it up. The parrot is dead. He is not pining for the fjords.

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm

Oh yeah? Well let's see the proof then.... Roll Eyes

Yes, that's what's needed, Proof?

And, here it is, Proof that the PARROT IS DEAD!

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JC Denton Gold Member Offline Posts: 5520 Gender:	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #64 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 1:01am perceptions now with some cutting edge totally not-overdone humour
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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #65 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:36am

muso wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 8:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:05pm:

IF there isn't any proof that this hasn't happened before then AGW is NOT a viable concept...
.

Gizmo. Let's illustrate the logic in that statement by taking another example.

Colonel Mustard is lying in the kitchen. He has a dirty great knife sticking out of his chest and he has no pulse.

Your argument is very much like saying: "Unless you can prove that Colonels have never died of natural causes in the past, then you can't prove that he was stabbed. He could have just had a bad cold."

In fact - he might just have a really bad heartburn and he'll snap right out of it as soon as he's finished his scotch on the rocks.

Or if we liken the climate to a parrot (let's say a Norwegian blue) then he is not sleeping, and all the banging on its cage will not waken it up. The parrot is dead. He is not pining for the fjords.

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm

Oh yeah? Well let's see the proof then.... Roll Eyes

Quite the opposite actually, muso, my argument is more along the lines of 'at first glance, you can't tell whether Colonel Mustard's death is homicide or suicide'....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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JC Denton Gold Member Offline Posts: 5520 Gender:	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #66 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:39am must have standard of proof THIS HIGH to ride the rollercoaster
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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #67 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:43am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:36am:

muso wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 8:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:05pm:

IF there isn't any proof that this hasn't happened before then AGW is NOT a viable concept...
.

Gizmo. Let's illustrate the logic in that statement by taking another example.

Colonel Mustard is lying in the kitchen. He has a dirty great knife sticking out of his chest and he has no pulse.

Your argument is very much like saying: "Unless you can prove that Colonels have never died of natural causes in the past, then you can't prove that he was stabbed. He could have just had a bad cold."

In fact - he might just have a really bad heartburn and he'll snap right out of it as soon as he's finished his scotch on the rocks.

Or if we liken the climate to a parrot (let's say a Norwegian blue) then he is not sleeping, and all the banging on its cage will not waken it up. The parrot is dead. He is not pining for the fjords.

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm

Oh yeah? Well let's see the proof then.... Roll Eyes

Quite the opposite actually, muso, my argument is more along the lines of 'at first glance, you can't tell whether Colonel Mustard's death is homicide or suicide'....

You can certainly tell that he didn't die of natural causes though. Your logic is flawed in the original post. That's all I'm saying.

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mavisdavis Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1512	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #68 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 8:04am JC Denton wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 1:01am: perceptions now with some cutting edge totally not-overdone humour I always thought that Al Gore belonged on the Monty Python team.
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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #69 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 8:08am

muso wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:43am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:36am:

muso wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 8:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:05pm:

IF there isn't any proof that this hasn't happened before then AGW is NOT a viable concept...
.

Gizmo. Let's illustrate the logic in that statement by taking another example.

Colonel Mustard is lying in the kitchen. He has a dirty great knife sticking out of his chest and he has no pulse.

Your argument is very much like saying: "Unless you can prove that Colonels have never died of natural causes in the past, then you can't prove that he was stabbed. He could have just had a bad cold."

In fact - he might just have a really bad heartburn and he'll snap right out of it as soon as he's finished his scotch on the rocks.

Or if we liken the climate to a parrot (let's say a Norwegian blue) then he is not sleeping, and all the banging on its cage will not waken it up. The parrot is dead. He is not pining for the fjords.

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm

Oh yeah? Well let's see the proof then.... Roll Eyes

Quite the opposite actually, muso, my argument is more along the lines of 'at first glance, you can't tell whether Colonel Mustard's death is homicide or suicide'....

You can certainly tell that he didn't die of natural causes though. Your logic is flawed in the original post. That's all I'm saying.

Flawed how?? Is there one single part of current climate change that hasn't happened before??? No there's not....

So if the same actions have happened due to natural causes in the past, then there isn't any way say it's man caused THIS time...

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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mavisdavis

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #70 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 8:38am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 8:08am:

muso wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:43am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 7:36am:

muso wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 8:50pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:05pm:

IF there isn't any proof that this hasn't happened before then AGW is NOT a viable concept...
.

Gizmo. Let's illustrate the logic in that statement by taking another example.

Colonel Mustard is lying in the kitchen. He has a dirty great knife sticking out of his chest and he has no pulse.

Your argument is very much like saying: "Unless you can prove that Colonels have never died of natural causes in the past, then you can't prove that he was stabbed. He could have just had a bad cold."

In fact - he might just have a really bad heartburn and he'll snap right out of it as soon as he's finished his scotch on the rocks.

Or if we liken the climate to a parrot (let's say a Norwegian blue) then he is not sleeping, and all the banging on its cage will not waken it up. The parrot is dead. He is not pining for the fjords.

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm

Oh yeah? Well let's see the proof then.... Roll Eyes

Quite the opposite actually, muso, my argument is more along the lines of 'at first glance, you can't tell whether Colonel Mustard's death is homicide or suicide'....

You can certainly tell that he didn't die of natural causes though. Your logic is flawed in the original post. That's all I'm saying.

Flawed how?? Is there one single part of current climate change that hasn't happened before??? No there's not....

So if the same actions have happened due to natural causes in the past, then there isn't any way say it's man caused THIS time...

Furthermore, it`s far from scientifically proven that Carbon is the culprit. As with all religious belief system, a great amount of blind faith is required.

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cods

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #71 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 8:58am

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 10:25pm:

cods wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 5:43am:

I still say its Mother Nature woody.. how come these guys never mention her? its never a normal part of natural patterns. its always man made..

take comfort in the fact that we will SOON have a all mighty TAX to take care of it.. so you wont have to fret anymore..

wonder if it will go into reverse asap.. or will we have to wait a week or two do you think?...

have someone up in Darwin and they had a cyclone warning.. she said it was a 4 downgraded to a 3 which by all accounts is not as bad as they are used too... I saw some of it on the news and it looked bad enough to me..she laughed when I got worried about her.lots of rain and wind.. but nothing out of the norm for this time of the year..

of course it's mother nature which is reacting to what we are sticking into the atmosphere !!

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

gee wizz what did she react to to cause the ice age?.. or the dinosaure age or the disappearing dinosaure age...or the Egyptians who disappeared for 200 years and then returned.

I know she didnt have a thing to do with it..so what did??..

you have the science dont you?

oh not us dreary humans again and their motor cars.you will find a way to blame them rusty I know you will but its because you hate humans

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cods

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #72 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 9:00am

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 10:31pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2011 at 3:32pm:

The problem with the idea of "listen to some science that is suggesting otherwise?" is that the science is doing JUST that.......suggesting..It's not, and cannot BE absolutely set in stone..Simply because there was no one there to observe it..there can't be any 'absolute, 100% proof'...simply because it's a guess....much like the idea of Atlantis, and alien visitations to the Incans and Lake Titicaca or the Nazca desert carvings.....They're 'suggestive', but NOT conclusive..

No one gives a sh.t if you don't accept the evidence as being conclusive.

haven't you studied probability theory and heard of risk mitigation ??

you don't wait around until you get 100% proof of something that could be devastating to the human race before you start taking action just in case the theory is correct.

you probably havent read where scientists come back after 10 or 20 years and tell us they got it all wrong...

I am forgetting of course you are a scientists arent you??.. so you would believe everything one of the boys tells you.

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The_Barnacle

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #73 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 9:49am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 19^th, 2011 at 8:08am:

Flawed how?? Is there one single part of current climate change that hasn't happened before??? No there's not....

So if the same actions have happened due to natural causes in the past, then there isn't any way say it's man caused THIS time...

The flaw in your logic gizmo is that you are completely ignoring the proven human impact on the atmosphere.
- humans burn fossil fuels (coal and oil) releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. This is a fact.
- the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising as measured by instruments in Hawaii, Tasmania and other sites. This is a fact.
- if you change the concentration of gasses in the atmosphere you will change the way it absorbs heat. This is also a fact.

This is the "knife in the chest" (to use muso's analogy). You can claim that the current warming of the planet is "natural causes" but all the evidence points towards it being artificially warmed by human activities.

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____ Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 33410 Australia Gender:	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #74 - Feb 19^th, 2011 at 10:53am 50 years, Atmospheric CO2 has increased about 65 ppm Now, has this ever happened so fast before? If not, then human population and human behaviour is the likely cause ... correct? 440 ppm, and world agriculture is likely to collapse. Lets all follow the denialists and play russian roulette.
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