Australian Politics Forum - Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain

muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #120 - Feb 22^nd, 2011 at 8:43am

Beertruk wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 7:15pm:

I notice that the graph starts at 1000 AD...what about starting it earlier ie: in the Middle Ages when it was hotter than it is now...or starting it 25,000 or even 100,000 years ago so we can see any cycle of changes? You aren't cherry picking are you Muso? Climate change is due to that big ball of gas in the sky.

That dataset is from the Law Dome Cores. That's the full extent of data from that particular site. There is other data before that date. I was responding to Gizmo's point about the increase in CO2 being at the same rate before industrialisation.

We are talking about atmospheric CO2 levels. I'm not sure how your post relates to that.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #121 - Feb 22^nd, 2011 at 1:16pm

Quote:

Regarding the seasonal peaks, these occur at all monitoring stations around April/ May each year regardless of location North or South of the equator. If the landmass was equal on both hemispheres, then there would be no appreciable seasonal peak. However, there is more landmass in the Northern hemisphere. I can explain further if you like

Actually according to Dr Keeling, who produced the Muana Loa graph, the increase is in Spring for each hemisphere...to qoute:

"Annual averages and amplitudes of the annual
cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration both decrease from high northern latitudes to high southern
latitudes. Peak annual CO2 concentrations occur in spring, around May in mid latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere and September or October in mid latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere."

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp001a/ndp001a.pdf

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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #122 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 12:12pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2011 at 1:16pm:

Quote:

Regarding the seasonal peaks, these occur at all monitoring stations around April/ May each year regardless of location North or South of the equator. If the landmass was equal on both hemispheres, then there would be no appreciable seasonal peak. However, there is more landmass in the Northern hemisphere. I can explain further if you like

Actually according to Dr Keeling, who produced the Muana Loa graph, the increase is in Spring for each hemisphere...to qoute:

"Annual averages and amplitudes of the annual
cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration both decrease from high northern latitudes to high southern
latitudes. Peak annual CO2 concentrations occur in spring, around May in mid latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere and September or October in mid latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere."

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp001a/ndp001a.pdf

I should have explained that I was talking about mean global levels of CO2. There, the Northern hemisphere effect is predominant. Anyway, it's a well understood seasonal fluctuation. There are also minor diurnal fluctuations.

Let's get back to the main argument in which I made the point that we can trace how much carbon is being emitted to the atmosphere and that we can show whether the carbon is of organic or fossil origin.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #123 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 1:13pm

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 12:12pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2011 at 1:16pm:

Quote:

Regarding the seasonal peaks, these occur at all monitoring stations around April/ May each year regardless of location North or South of the equator. If the landmass was equal on both hemispheres, then there would be no appreciable seasonal peak. However, there is more landmass in the Northern hemisphere. I can explain further if you like

Actually according to Dr Keeling, who produced the Muana Loa graph, the increase is in Spring for each hemisphere...to qoute:

"Annual averages and amplitudes of the annual
cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration both decrease from high northern latitudes to high southern
latitudes. Peak annual CO2 concentrations occur in spring, around May in mid latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere and September or October in mid latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere."

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp001a/ndp001a.pdf

I should have explained that I was talking about mean global levels of CO2. There, the Northern hemisphere effect is predominant. Anyway, it's a well understood seasonal fluctuation. There are also minor diurnal fluctuations.

Let's get back to the main argument in which I made the point that we can trace how much carbon is being emitted to the atmosphere and that we can show whether the carbon is of organic or fossil origin.

Which is all well and good, and brings us back to MY point.....Which is, there's been no definitive proof that Co2 is the cause of the rising global temperatures..

From icecore evidence I've seen, there seems to be a significant lag between temperature change and changes in Co2 concentration of up to 700 years.......with Co2 trailing behind temperature.

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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #124 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:17pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 1:13pm:

Which is all well and good, and brings us back to MY point.....Which is, there's been no definitive proof that Co2 is the cause of the rising global temperatures..

From icecore evidence I've seen, there seems to be a significant lag between temperature change and changes in Co2 concentration of up to 700 years.......with Co2 trailing behind temperature.

That happens at least some of the time because there is an equilibrium between CO2 and temperature. That is precisely what you would expect for such an equilibrium.

Besides, it stands to reason that temperature (or at least varying solar irradiance) was the main driving force pre industrialisation. After all, there was no major emissions of CO2 at that time.

Let's take an analogy - an air filled balloon in a controlled temperature chamber. There are two ways that you can affect the size of the balloon. (forgetting about adding more air for the moment)

1. Increase the temperature of the chamber
2. Increase the pressure of the chamber

Let's say that we do these steps in sequence. You've just increased the pressure of the balloon, when some guy comes up to you and says

- The balloon is larger - that means that the temperature has increased, because in the past when the temperature increased, the balloon got larger.

You then point out to him that you actually increased the pressure of the balloon and that it can be demonstrated that introducing more air into the balloon makes it grow bigger.

In that example, there is an equilibrium between temperature and pressure in the same way that in the global climate, there is an equilibrium between temperature and CO2.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #125 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:22pm

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:17pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 1:13pm:

Which is all well and good, and brings us back to MY point.....Which is, there's been no definitive proof that Co2 is the cause of the rising global temperatures..

From icecore evidence I've seen, there seems to be a significant lag between temperature change and changes in Co2 concentration of up to 700 years.......with Co2 trailing behind temperature.

That happens at least some of the time because there is an equilibrium between CO2 and temperature. That is precisely what you would expect for such an equilibrium.

Besides, it stands to reason that temperature (or at least varying solar irradiance) was the main driving force pre industrialisation. After all, there was no major emissions of CO2 at that time.

Let's take an analogy - an air filled balloon in a controlled temperature chamber. There are two ways that you can affect the size of the balloon. (forgetting about adding more air for the moment)

1. Increase the temperature of the chamber
2. Increase the pressure of the chamber

Let's say that we do these steps in sequence. You've just increased the pressure of the balloon, when some guy comes up to you and says

- The balloon is larger - that means that the temperature has increased, because in the past when the temperature increased, the balloon got larger.

You then point out to him that you actually increased the pressure of the balloon and that it can be demonstrated that introducing more air into the balloon makes it grow bigger.

In that example, there is an equilibrium between temperature and pressure in the same way that in the global climate, there is an equilibrium between temperature and CO2.

So you're saying that the earth's surrounded by a semi-rigid, impervious envelope??

Gee, guess the whole space program WAS a fake then...

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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #126 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:33pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:22pm:

So you're saying that the earth's surrounded by a semi-rigid, impervious envelope??

Gee, guess the whole space program WAS a fake then...

Don't be obtuse. I'm explaining the concept of an equilibrium by giving you an analogy. Can you see what I'm getting at or not?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #127 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:39pm

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:33pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:22pm:

So you're saying that the earth's surrounded by a semi-rigid, impervious envelope??

Gee, guess the whole space program WAS a fake then...

Don't be obtuse. I'm explaining the concept of an equilibrium by giving you an analogy. Can you see what I'm getting at or not?

I know what you're trying to get at.

But that was an incredibly childish and inept example, and really doesn't fit the situation. The only way pressure increases temperature in a gas is if the gas cannot expand...

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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #128 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:57pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:39pm:

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:33pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:22pm:

So you're saying that the earth's surrounded by a semi-rigid, impervious envelope??

Gee, guess the whole space program WAS a fake then...

Don't be obtuse. I'm explaining the concept of an equilibrium by giving you an analogy. Can you see what I'm getting at or not?

I know what you're trying to get at.

But that was an incredibly childish and inept example, and really doesn't fit the situation. The only way pressure increases temperature in a gas is if the gas cannot expand...

Let's move on. Can you see that increasing CO2 will effectively decrease the LWIR escaping to space with the result of increased warming? If you accept that CO2 is a greehouse gas, then it's an implicit conclusion.

You obviously understand that increasing the temperature will result in more CO2 partitioning into the atmosphere.

Well, it's an equilibrium. If it wasn't an equilibrium, the globe would either be perpetually heating or perpetually cooling.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #129 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 3:30pm

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:57pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:39pm:

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:33pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 2:22pm:

So you're saying that the earth's surrounded by a semi-rigid, impervious envelope??

Gee, guess the whole space program WAS a fake then...

Don't be obtuse. I'm explaining the concept of an equilibrium by giving you an analogy. Can you see what I'm getting at or not?

I know what you're trying to get at.

But that was an incredibly childish and inept example, and really doesn't fit the situation. The only way pressure increases temperature in a gas is if the gas cannot expand...

Let's move on. Can you see that increasing CO2 will effectively decrease the LWIR escaping to space with the result of increased warming? If you accept that CO2 is a greehouse gas, then it's an implicit conclusion.

You obviously understand that increasing the temperature will result in more CO2 partitioning into the atmosphere.

Well, it's an equilibrium. If it wasn't an equilibrium, the globe would either be perpetually heating or perpetually cooling.

No I don't see how increased Co2 would affect LWIR leaving the atmosphere......that's what the ozone layers do isn't it (or used to ..pre-panic days) Surely if Co2 blocks LWIR, then an increase would stop it entering, not leaving...

And what is 'wrong' with the greenhouse effect?? Without it, there would be NO life on earth at all.

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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #130 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 3:56pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 3:30pm:

No I don't see how increased Co2 would affect LWIR leaving the atmosphere......that's what the ozone layers do isn't it (or used to ..pre-panic days) Surely if Co2 blocks LWIR, then an increase would stop it entering, not leaving...

And what is 'wrong' with the greenhouse effect?? Without it, there would be NO life on earth at all.

Ozone is a minor Greenhouse gas in the scheme of things, but the main concern with the ozone layer was the fact that it blocks certain wavelengths of UV radiation from the sun.

Remember when we went through this stuff before? I'll try to find the thread.

Quote:

Surely if Co2 blocks LWIR, then an increase would stop it entering, not leaving.

Remember, we're talking about LWIR radiation from the Earth. What do you mean by entering? That frequency of IR comes from the Earth, not the sun.

Here's the post I was talking about:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1272798405/168#177

You see the section in the graph in blue? That's the Long Wave Infrared radiation coming up from the Earth. The graphs under that show how each gas absorbs that LWIR radiation.

A greenhouse gas effectively scatters the radiation so that a smaller proportion makes it through to space.

So if you accept that greenhouse gases work in that way....

Let me know if you don't.

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« Last Edit: Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 4:09pm by muso »

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #131 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 4:09pm

muso wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 3:56pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 3:30pm:

No I don't see how increased Co2 would affect LWIR leaving the atmosphere......that's what the ozone layers do isn't it (or used to ..pre-panic days) Surely if Co2 blocks LWIR, then an increase would stop it entering, not leaving...

And what is 'wrong' with the greenhouse effect?? Without it, there would be NO life on earth at all.

Ozone is a minor Greenhouse gas in the scheme of things, but the main concern with the ozone layer was the fact that it blocks certain wavelengths of UV radiation from the sun.

Remember when we went through this stuff before? I'll try to find the thread.

Quote:

Surely if Co2 blocks LWIR, then an increase would stop it entering, not leaving.

Remember, we're talking about LWIR radiation from the Earth. What do you mean by entering? That frequency of IR comes from the Earth, not the sun.

But it still originates from the Sun (as slightly shorter frequency IR)...

The Earth cannot generate IR by itself..it can only reflect it.....

If Co2 and other greenhouse gases 'reflect' it from one side, they'll also 'reflect' it from the other....

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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #132 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 4:14pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 4:09pm:

But it still originates from the Sun (as slightly shorter frequency IR)...

The Earth cannot generate IR by itself..it can only reflect it.....

If Co2 and other greenhouse gases 'reflect' it from one side, they'll also 'reflect' it from the other....

I think I understand where you're going wrong. I'll try to explain it better - maybe on the weekend. I have a trip to the big smoke tomorrow so my time will be limited.

The highlighted portion is incorrect. You might have to go through the theory again. The key is the frequency/ wavelength at which the molecules absorb infrared. Again, try to understand the graph.

It's all in the LWIR from the Earth. The incoming radiation from the sun (mostly visible light) passes right through the CO2 molecules. At least the effect on incoming radiation is so miniscule that it can be ignored.

I'm keen to carry on this discussion when I can. Let's continue on a non judgmental basis. I think you'd prefer to get at the truth. (?)

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« Last Edit: Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 7:51pm by muso »

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #133 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 8:16pm

I read this next to the graph on the thread link you posted:

"If we had a pure (dry) nitrogen and oxygen atmosphere we'd have no greenhouse effect to speak of and emitted long wave IR radiation would escape into space."

Are you also aware that without the greenhouse effect, the Earth's temperature would be -18 Celsius, and there'd probably be no life on Earth???

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #134 - Feb 23^rd, 2011 at 8:33pm Yes of course. Carbon dioxide and the other Greenhouse gases have a net heating effect. Add more greenhouse gases, and all things being equal, that effect becomes greater.
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