Australian Politics Forum - Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #105 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 8:11am

I'm sure it has - perhaps when a supervolcano erupted, or some other cataclysmic event.

Why does what happened in the pre human past have any relevance? Such a rapid rise could be disastrous for US, NOW.

You ask the question like you have some idea of another time it happened - so what is your killer argument?

BTW, it is REALLY hard to find this damn thread now that it has been moved. What was the point of moving it again?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #106 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:17pm

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 8:11am:

I'm sure it has - perhaps when a supervolcano erupted, or some other cataclysmic event.

Why does what happened in the pre human past have any relevance? Such a rapid rise could be disastrous for US, NOW.

You ask the question like you have some idea of another time it happened - so what is your killer argument?

BTW, it is REALLY hard to find this damn thread now that it has been moved. What was the point of moving it again?

Pretty simple really....If the average rate of change across the past (before human industry, and allowing for assorted cataclysms) is the same as the average rate in the last 50-100 years...How can it be assigned to human action???

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #107 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:31pm

If?

I ask again, if you have some point or evidence, why not lay it out?

If the concentration of Co2 increased 1ppm every year, then in a short period (geologically speaking, say 1000 years) the Co2 would be at 1380 ppm.

The scientists say that would be a different world to this.

So what are you getting at?

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #108 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:37pm

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:31pm:

If?

I ask again, if you have some point or evidence, why not lay it out?

If the concentration of Co2 increased 1ppm every year, then in a short period (geologically speaking, say 1000 years) the Co2 would be at 1380 ppm.

The scientists say that would be a different world to this.

So what are you getting at?

LOL that's what's so funny....I was asking Greens for THAT info to start with....

And no it wouldn't.....because it's cyclic thing....Co2 is released and absorbed all the time...

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Please delete Gold Member Offline Please delete this smacking PROFILE Posts: 2936	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #109 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:49pm OK, gizmo. You don't agree, there's nothing I can say. And I hope you are right.
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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #110 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 2:29pm

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:49pm:

OK, gizmo.

You don't agree, there's nothing I can say.

And I hope you are right.

Well scientists on both sides of the debate agree that Co2 is absorbed by oceans/plants etc during cool periods and released in warmer times......so the amount of atmospheric Co2 varies all the time...even within the year, according to seasons....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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Please delete Gold Member Offline Please delete this smacking PROFILE Posts: 2936	Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain Reply #111 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 2:39pm And? I still don't understand what you are getting at. If all you are saying is that it is all natural, that it's just cyclic, that it's OK if the sea levels rise 6m BECAUSE it's all natural, well, OK then.
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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #112 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:16pm

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 2:39pm:

And? I still don't understand what you are getting at.

If all you are saying is that it is all natural, that it's just cyclic, that it's OK if the sea levels rise 6m BECAUSE it's all natural, well, OK then.

And when is this sea level rise supposed to take place???

It seems to keep changing....

Well if it's all natural.....exactly how can we stop it???

And what I'm actually saying is that Co2 might not be the cause of any changes in the climate or temperatures.....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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muso

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #113 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:16pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 2:29pm:

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:49pm:

OK, gizmo.

You don't agree, there's nothing I can say.

And I hope you are right.

Well scientists on both sides of the debate agree that Co2 is absorbed by oceans/plants etc during cool periods and released in warmer times......so the amount of atmospheric Co2 varies all the time...even within the year, according to seasons....

Getting back to basics. Yes, we can see the annual cycle superimposed on the upwards trend. What point are you making? - and why do you think it peaks around May each year?

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #114 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:29pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:17pm:

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 8:11am:

I'm sure it has - perhaps when a supervolcano erupted, or some other cataclysmic event.

Why does what happened in the pre human past have any relevance? Such a rapid rise could be disastrous for US, NOW.

You ask the question like you have some idea of another time it happened - so what is your killer argument?

BTW, it is REALLY hard to find this damn thread now that it has been moved. What was the point of moving it again?

Pretty simple really....If the average rate of change across the past (before human industry, and allowing for assorted cataclysms) is the same as the average rate in the last 50-100 years...How can it be assigned to human action???

Ok fair enough, we can get CO2 data for this period from Law Dome ice cores, and that's primary data, since we're just measuring CO2 in bubbles trapped in the ice. So now that we know that it isn't, what can we conclude?

Here is the data displayed graphically:

There is corroborating evidence from Siple station and the Greenland Cores. If you want to go back even further, the Vostok ice cores go right back to the last 850,000 years.

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #115 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:41pm

http://www.pnas.org/content/105/5/1425.full

Quote:

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

1. Fortunat Joos * and
2. Renato Spahni †

Quote:

In summary, the rate of change in anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is unique in the context of the past. The 20th century rise in anthropogenic forcing occurs faster than changes in the combined radiative forcing from CO2, CH4, and N2O during the past 20,000 years. Decadal-scale rates of change in CO2, CH4, and N2O and in their forcing are several times larger during the Industrial Era than the last 2,000 years. In addition, the multidecadal scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is also very high in the context of the known natural forcing variations of the past millennium. For recent years, the analysis by (7) shows that CO2 emission from fossil and industrial sources, the primary driver of anthropogenic climate forcing, have been accelerating over the past few years compared with the 1990s.

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #116 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:55pm

muso wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:16pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 2:29pm:

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:49pm:

OK, gizmo.

You don't agree, there's nothing I can say.

And I hope you are right.

Well scientists on both sides of the debate agree that Co2 is absorbed by oceans/plants etc during cool periods and released in warmer times......so the amount of atmospheric Co2 varies all the time...even within the year, according to seasons....

Getting back to basics. Yes, we can see the annual cycle superimposed on the upwards trend. What point are you making? - and why do you think it peaks around May each year?
http://www.whoi.edu/cms/images/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide_70552.png

Well the last time I checked, Hawaii was in the Northern Hemisphere...so May would be middle to late Spring....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #117 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:56pm

muso wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:41pm:

http://www.pnas.org/content/105/5/1425.full

Quote:

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

1. Fortunat Joos * and
2. Renato Spahni †

Quote:

In summary, the rate of change in anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is unique in the context of the past. The 20th century rise in anthropogenic forcing occurs faster than changes in the combined radiative forcing from CO2, CH4, and N2O during the past 20,000 years. Decadal-scale rates of change in CO2, CH4, and N2O and in their forcing are several times larger during the Industrial Era than the last 2,000 years. In addition, the multidecadal scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is also very high in the context of the known natural forcing variations of the past millennium. For recent years, the analysis by (7) shows that CO2 emission from fossil and industrial sources, the primary driver of anthropogenic climate forcing, have been accelerating over the past few years compared with the 1990s.

That's nice......

Now they only have to prove that Co2 is anything more than a by-product of a warming climate....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #118 - Feb 21^st, 2011 at 7:15pm

muso wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:29pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 1:17pm:

Please delete wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 8:11am:

I'm sure it has - perhaps when a supervolcano erupted, or some other cataclysmic event.

Why does what happened in the pre human past have any relevance? Such a rapid rise could be disastrous for US, NOW.

You ask the question like you have some idea of another time it happened - so what is your killer argument?

BTW, it is REALLY hard to find this damn thread now that it has been moved. What was the point of moving it again?

Pretty simple really....If the average rate of change across the past (before human industry, and allowing for assorted cataclysms) is the same as the average rate in the last 50-100 years...How can it be assigned to human action???

Ok fair enough, we can get CO2 data for this period from Law Dome ice cores, and that's primary data, since we're just measuring CO2 in bubbles trapped in the ice. So now that we know that it isn't, what can we conclude?

Here is the data displayed graphically:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.smooth75.gif

There is corroborating evidence from Siple station and the Greenland Cores. If you want to go back even further, the Vostok ice cores go right back to the last 850,000 years.

I notice that the graph starts at 1000 AD...what about starting it earlier ie: in the Middle Ages when it was hotter than it is now...or starting it 25,000 or even 100,000 years ago so we can see any cycle of changes? You aren't cherry picking are you Muso? Climate change is due to that big ball of gas in the sky.

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Re: Climate Change Is the Culprit in Extreme Rain
Reply #119 - Feb 22^nd, 2011 at 8:37am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:56pm:

muso wrote on Feb 21^st, 2011 at 3:41pm:

http://www.pnas.org/content/105/5/1425.full

Quote:

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

1. Fortunat Joos * and
2. Renato Spahni †

Quote:

In summary, the rate of change in anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is unique in the context of the past. The 20th century rise in anthropogenic forcing occurs faster than changes in the combined radiative forcing from CO2, CH4, and N2O during the past 20,000 years. Decadal-scale rates of change in CO2, CH4, and N2O and in their forcing are several times larger during the Industrial Era than the last 2,000 years. In addition, the multidecadal scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is also very high in the context of the known natural forcing variations of the past millennium. For recent years, the analysis by (7) shows that CO2 emission from fossil and industrial sources, the primary driver of anthropogenic climate forcing, have been accelerating over the past few years compared with the 1990s.

That's nice......

Now they only have to prove that Co2 is anything more than a by-product of a warming climate....

I agree that there is a two way equilibrium between temperature and CO2. That's fundamental atmospheric physics. I'm glad that you appreciate that point at least, but in order to produce more atmospheric CO2, you need to increase the temperature somehow. The only obvious source is the sun, but the data is "screaming" that if anything, solar irradiance has been slowly dropping.

Apart from that, we can use the carbon balance and a world of carbon accounting to show exactly how much carbon dioxide and other GHG's are being produced every year. I showed you the calculation in a previous post.

We know the mass of carbon entering the atmosphere, we know how much of that is partitioned into the oceans (roughly 1/3 of the total) and not only that but we can carry out isotope analysis of the carbon to determine its source. Carbon from biota has a totally different isotope signature to fossil carbon. Do you understand that?

Regarding the seasonal peaks, these occur at all monitoring stations around April/ May each year regardless of location North or South of the equator. If the landmass was equal on both hemispheres, then there would be no appreciable seasonal peak. However, there is more landmass in the Northern hemisphere. I can explain further if you like.

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