Australian Politics Forum - Still borrowing $100 million per day?

perceptions_now

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #75 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 12:04am

Bobby. wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 11:19pm:

Mozzaok,
I already debunked Perceptions.

Perceptions:
Quote:

That said, I would say you may be a little low, I think you may find out when the figures are announced later in the year, that the 2009-2010 deficit will be closer to $70 Billion or around $200 million a day.

$70 billion would give less than 10 million per day in interest not $200 million.

Look at my previous calculations.

Bobby,
My comment that you refer to said an Annual Deficit of $70 Billion, which equates to a daily Deficit (increased Debt) of $200 miilion a day, it did not refer to interest at all!

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Please delete Gold Member Offline Please delete this smacking PROFILE Posts: 2936	Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day? Reply #76 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 5:22am deepthought wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 8:59pm: So Ernie, over to you. A link to the page? http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1858/PDF/PEFO_2010.pdf page 27 Table A2: Australian Government general government sector balance sheet
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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #77 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 5:28am

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:35pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2010 at 4:02pm:

Perceptions
Quote:

Possibly, because the Libs have agreed they would have borrowed at least 80% of what Labor did!

You are all missing the point.

Why can't we live within our means?

Let me say first, that compared to many, in fact, most other countries around the world, we are certainly much better off and yes, we are currently living well within our means.

Second, the figures seem to fluctuate a little, perhaps due to Political leanings. The $100 million you refer to was originally just the interest component of new borrowings, which in effect is the current deficit, now it seems to have slipped to new borrowings, not just interest.

That said, I would say you may be a little low, I think you may find out when the figures are announced later in the year, that the 2009-2010 deficit will be closer to $70 Billion or around $200 million a day.

That is certainly higher than the Liberals did during their last term during 1996-2007, but that was assisted by a massive Economic Boom, driven by the Peak Earning & Spending period for the Boomer generation.

The period between 2007-2010 was marked by the GFC, which was the beginning of the Boomer Bust, also assisted by the Peaking of Global Energy supplies (Peal Oil).

Notwithstanding all of that, if the deifict comes in at $70 Billion, that would be around 6% of GDP. To compare, the USA is looking at a deficit of over $1.5 Trillion on a GDP of about $13-14 Trillion, so their deficit would be about 11%.

Similarly, Australia's National Debt is likely to be around $180-$200 Billion, which is about 17% on our current GDP, whereas the USA has probably just exceeded 100% on their National Debt to GDP ratio.

Bear in mind, the USA is not the worst & their are many in a similar category to them, so yes, we are relatively living within our means, particularly given the relevant circumstances, of when the Libs were in power, compared to the last 3 years.

And, if this were a standard recession, of the type experienced quite often last century, then I would also have no problem with continuing with deficits for the next 2-3 years.

However, this is not your run-of-the-mill recession, in that it will not simply go away, with the input of some money, to boost public confidence.

What we are now entering is a long term, Economic slowdown, where Demand is set to decline of many years, for a number of reasons.

That said, we need to back away from deficits, as quickly as possible, but at the same time we need to try to maintain the publics disposable income, as much as possible.

Politicians & Economists, will need to think outside their normal comfort zones, for a change!

Australian net debt is projected to peak at $89.5b next year.

$Not 200B, $89.5B

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vegitamite

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #78 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 10:54am

Economics and political expediency, John Turner, On Line Opinion
The Coalition hammered the theme that the government was borrowing $100 million a day.
The government was not borrowing that money from anybody. The government was creating the money

www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=10947

'The Coalition hammered the theme that the government was borrowing $100 million a day. The government was not borrowing that money from anybody. The government was creating the money in the same way the banking system creates money every day. One of any government’s largest costs involves writing a large cheque regularly to pay the less well-off in the community - a welfare payment. The Reserve Bank, which we all own through our government, honours those cheques (which it always does). There is no connection between the government’s taxation and other fund raising activities and the ability of the Reserve Bank to honour the cheque. The only real immediate costs involved are clerical. With the GFC looming ominously, the government rightly chose to write cheques to pay for job creation activities rather than for increased numbers of unemployed.

If the economy is in a depressed or low-growth state there will not even be a significant monetary inflation effect from the created funds, and the created work, but there will be a desirable boost in economic activity. Because the government is sovereign it does not even have to repay the Reserve Bank; it owes the money to itself.'

Begs the question of how much do the Liberals understand about economic management

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perceptions_now

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #79 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 11:56am

Please delete wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 5:28am:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:35pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2010 at 4:02pm:

Perceptions
Quote:

Possibly, because the Libs have agreed they would have borrowed at least 80% of what Labor did!

You are all missing the point.

Why can't we live within our means?

Let me say first, that compared to many, in fact, most other countries around the world, we are certainly much better off and yes, we are currently living well within our means.

Second, the figures seem to fluctuate a little, perhaps due to Political leanings. The $100 million you refer to was originally just the interest component of new borrowings, which in effect is the current deficit, now it seems to have slipped to new borrowings, not just interest.

That said, I would say you may be a little low, I think you may find out when the figures are announced later in the year, that the 2009-2010 deficit will be closer to $70 Billion or around $200 million a day.

That is certainly higher than the Liberals did during their last term during 1996-2007, but that was assisted by a massive Economic Boom, driven by the Peak Earning & Spending period for the Boomer generation.

The period between 2007-2010 was marked by the GFC, which was the beginning of the Boomer Bust, also assisted by the Peaking of Global Energy supplies (Peal Oil).

Notwithstanding all of that, if the deifict comes in at $70 Billion, that would be around 6% of GDP. To compare, the USA is looking at a deficit of over $1.5 Trillion on a GDP of about $13-14 Trillion, so their deficit would be about 11%.

Similarly, Australia's National Debt is likely to be around $180-$200 Billion, which is about 17% on our current GDP, whereas the USA has probably just exceeded 100% on their National Debt to GDP ratio.

Bear in mind, the USA is not the worst & their are many in a similar category to them, so yes, we are relatively living within our means, particularly given the relevant circumstances, of when the Libs were in power, compared to the last 3 years.

And, if this were a standard recession, of the type experienced quite often last century, then I would also have no problem with continuing with deficits for the next 2-3 years.

However, this is not your run-of-the-mill recession, in that it will not simply go away, with the input of some money, to boost public confidence.

What we are now entering is a long term, Economic slowdown, where Demand is set to decline of many years, for a number of reasons.

That said, we need to back away from deficits, as quickly as possible, but at the same time we need to try to maintain the publics disposable income, as much as possible.

Politicians & Economists, will need to think outside their normal comfort zones, for a change!

Australian net debt is projected to peak at $89.5b next year.

$Not 200B, $89.5B

Who said NET?

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Please delete Gold Member Offline Please delete this smacking PROFILE Posts: 2936	Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day? Reply #80 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 11:59am My mistake. I haven't seen many references to Total Debt, so I jumped to a conclusion. Apologies.
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qikvtec

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #81 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 12:05pm

Quote:

Economics and political expediency, John Turner, On Line Opinion
The Coalition hammered the theme that the government was borrowing $100 million a day.
The government was not borrowing that money from anybody. The government was creating the money

www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=10947

'The Coalition hammered the theme that the government was borrowing $100 million a day. The government was not borrowing that money from anybody. The government was creating the money in the same way the banking system creates money every day. One of any government’s largest costs involves writing a large cheque regularly to pay the less well-off in the community - a welfare payment. The Reserve Bank, which we all own through our government, honours those cheques (which it always does). There is no connection between the government’s taxation and other fund raising activities and the ability of the Reserve Bank to honour the cheque. The only real immediate costs involved are clerical. With the GFC looming ominously, the government rightly chose to write cheques to pay for job creation activities rather than for increased numbers of unemployed.

If the economy is in a depressed or low-growth state there will not even be a significant monetary inflation effect from the created funds, and the created work, but there will be a desirable boost in economic activity. Because the government is sovereign it does not even have to repay the Reserve Bank; it owes the money to itself.'

Begs the question of how much do the Liberals understand about economic management

Do you know what a bond is Veg?

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Politicians and Nappies need to be changed often and for the same reason.

One trouble with political jokes is that they often get elected.

Alan Joyce for PM

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Bobby.

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #82 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 10:45pm

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 12:04am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 11:19pm:

Mozzaok,
I already debunked Perceptions.

Perceptions:
Quote:

That said, I would say you may be a little low, I think you may find out when the figures are announced later in the year, that the 2009-2010 deficit will be closer to $70 Billion or around $200 million a day.

$70 billion would give less than 10 million per day in interest not $200 million.

Look at my previous calculations.

Bobby,
My comment that you refer to said an Annual Deficit of $70 Billion, which equates to a daily Deficit (increased Debt) of $200 miilion a day, it did not refer to interest at all!

OK then - I worked out that we pay $10 million in interest every day.
You're saying that we also borrow an extra $190 million per day as well?

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perceptions_now

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #83 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 12:04am

Bobby. wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 10:45pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 12:04am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 11:19pm:

Mozzaok,
I already debunked Perceptions.

Perceptions:
Quote:

That said, I would say you may be a little low, I think you may find out when the figures are announced later in the year, that the 2009-2010 deficit will be closer to $70 Billion or around $200 million a day.

$70 billion would give less than 10 million per day in interest not $200 million.

Look at my previous calculations.

Bobby,
My comment that you refer to said an Annual Deficit of $70 Billion, which equates to a daily Deficit (increased Debt) of $200 miilion a day, it did not refer to interest at all!

OK then - I worked out that we pay $10 million in interest every day.
You're saying that we also borrow an extra $190 million per day as well?

What I said was that the 2009-2010 Deficit may be closer to $70 Billion, which is about $200 Million a day and yes, the interest on that is about $10 Million a day.

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 110380 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day? Reply #84 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 12:28am Perceptions. Quote: What I said was that the 2009-2010 Deficit may be closer to $70 Billion, which is about $200 Million a day and yes, the interest on that is about $10 Million a day. How do you work out the $200 million per day? I still don't understand where your $200 million comes from.
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BlOoDy RiPpEr Gold Member Offline aussie-patriot.com Posts: 2475 Sydney Gender:	Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day? Reply #85 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 6:57am No matter what it is the country is technically bankrupt.
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philperth2010 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 20970 Perth Gender:	Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day? Reply #86 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 7:14am What I said was that the 2009-2010 Deficit may be closer to $70 Billion, which is about $200 Million a day and yes, the interest on that is about $10 Million a day. So where does the $100 Million a day come from???
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vegitamite Ex Member	Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day? Reply #87 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 7:28am Do you know what a bond is Veg? ===================== Is it what Abbott and Turnbull are now trying to do..? OR A once australian undie brand....
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perceptions_now

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #88 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 8:48am

Bobby. wrote on Sep 16^th, 2010 at 12:28am:

Perceptions.
Quote:

What I said was that the 2009-2010 Deficit may be closer to $70 Billion, which is about $200 Million a day and yes, the interest on that is about $10 Million a day.

How do you work out the $200 million per day?
I still don't understand where your $200 million comes from.

How do we become obese?

Do we wake up one day and realise that we have put on 70kg overnight or do we simply over-eat & under-exercise every day?

So, if we weighted 70kg less 12 months ago, then on average we put on an extra 0.1972602kg each day, rounded up an extra 0.2kg.

The same applies to Debt!

If the Annual Deficit does come in around $70 Billion, then we divide it by 365 to get the daily average, which rounded up is $200 Million a day.

OK?

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Bobby.

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Re: Still borrowing $100 million per day?
Reply #89 - Sep 16^th, 2010 at 9:55am

Perceptions - I get $10.7 million:

Quote:

As a simple way to calculate with certain assumptions:

6% of GDP say $1.3 trillion - is $78 billion.
If the interest is say- 5% - then the annual interest is $3.9 billion.
The interest per day is $3.9 billion divided by 365 days = 10.7 million per day.

You are just dividing $70 billion by 365.
Quote:

If the Annual Deficit does come in around $70 Billion, then we divide it by 365 to get the daily average, which rounded up is $200 Million a day

.

Your calculation would assume that we pay all of that back in one year.
That is not the case.
It would take $10 million per day to pay the interest &
whatever else is added to that would pay off the principal.

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