perceptions_now wrote on Aug 31
st, 2010 at 4:29pm:
What happened to the one decade you used to use, Andrei?
In any event, I never agreed with your assertion, when it was at 10 years and I certainly wouldn't agree to anything like 30 years!
It would take 10 years at the flat out pace of a Manhattan style project, Globally, to get geared up for a transition from Oil to something else, if something else was available, which it isn't!
If we waited for 30 years after Peaked Oil became reality, before then declaring Peak Oil and then moving into a mitigation phase, then you would not only consign the Global Economy to the toilet, but you would also shunt humanity toward extinction!
Now I know you have read enough about peak oil theory to know as much about as I do.
If you take a 5 year period, you would not encompass natural progression or regression trends on such a theory which transcends generations.
Take for example if you took the oil shock of the 1970s as the base of your theory. You'd think we'd run about by about 1987 on that.
Peak oil can be detected from the measurement over a decades long timegraph.
It cannot be detected by picking a short 5 year period and basing your argument on that.
5 years in a click of your fingers in the oil industry.
Remember also, the theory does not allowed for advances in technology - you are totally ignoring that.
In this decade we can map the entire ocean floor without drilling, we can go down to depths completely out of our reach only one decade ago.
We can drill further down on the ocean floor and at depths far beyond capability of the 1990s.
We can drill further, safer and cleaner.
Peak oil theory takes current known oil fields and applies little logic for advancement.
A dangerous game.
It may help to explain why the date that oil peak has happened has moved back 6 times.
In fact we originally were going to run out of oil in 1982 at one point....
Exactly Andrei....every time in the past, (e.g the 60's, 70's and 80's) that the 'oil has runout'..we've just gone out and 'found' more oil fields...
And surprise surprise...they've 'just' discovered OIL in Afghanistan....
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