gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 31^st, 2010 at 1:08pm:


1) Yes, I'm aware of what the strategic Reserves are!

2) Yes, I'm aware of what the so called,

"proven or estimated underground Reserves are, they are the figures shown in the graphs in my earlier post at 12.10pm.

If you do a rough total on the big 5 Middle East country Reserves graph, you will see they add up to about 720 BILLION Barrels and the estimated total Reserves (according to official figures) left in the world is about 1.2 TRILLION. It is also estimated that we have already used 1.2 trillion barrels, hence we have reached Peak Oil Production.

So, the 5 big M/E produces supposedly have 60% of the worlds remaining "proven?? undergroung Reserves), which of course is not correct, as the OPEC/Middle East, do not actually have what they say they have!

Even if you take the so called "proven inderground Reserves" of 1.2 Trillion and divide it by the current annual Global consumption, which is around 85 Million Barrels P/Day, I think you may get an indication of where we really are?

Btw, those US Strategic Reserves you spoke of are only about 4 Billion Barrels in total, of which around 1.5 Billion barrels is controlled by the US government.

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 31^st, 2010 at 2:10pm:


Utter rubbish, Gizmo, you have no idea what you are taking about!

There are none so blind, as those who do not wish to see!

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 31^st, 2010 at 2:22pm:


Extraction/Production same thing and that is where we are now, at the predicted plateau, just before Production/Extraction goes into terminal decline!

Oil Production has flatlined for about 5 years now, it is dying, with various fields & countries having hit Peak Production and since gone into decline, the onlt thing left is the final Global tipping point, which are a couple of older/major Middle East fields that are now under stress and when their flows can not longer be maintained, then its goodbye to the plateau and hello to the downslope!

Perceptions, You and I both know that to assess and analyze the phenomenon of Peak Oil, the recommended period of data extrapolation is 3 decades minimum.

Otherwise you run the risk of taking a piece of data which is subject to short term factors.

You're using 5 years.

1/6th of the recommended data.

Any reason why?

petrol is pretty cheap when you consider what it enables you to do, if you can't afford petrol or think its too expensive maybe you should get a job.

laborfornever wrote on Aug 31^st, 2010 at 4:27pm:


L4n,
Are you talking to SOMEONE or just YOURSELF?

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 31^st, 2010 at 4:29pm:


Now I know you have read enough about peak oil theory to know as much about as I do.

If you take a 5 year period, you would not encompass natural progression or regression trends on such a theory which transcends generations.

Take for example if you took the oil shock of the 1970s as the base of your theory. You'd think we'd run about by about 1987 on that.

Peak oil can be detected from the measurement over a decades long timegraph.
It cannot be detected by picking a short 5 year period and basing your argument on that.

5 years in a click of your fingers in the oil industry.

Remember also, the theory does not allowed for advances in technology - you are totally ignoring that.

In this decade we can map the entire ocean floor without drilling, we can go down to depths completely out of our reach only one decade ago.

We can drill further down on the ocean floor and at depths far beyond capability of the 1990s.

We can drill further, safer and cleaner.

Peak oil theory takes current known oil fields and applies little logic for advancement.
A dangerous game.

It may help to explain why the date that oil peak has happened has moved back 6 times.
In fact we originally were going to run out of oil in 1982 at one point....

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 31^st, 2010 at 6:02pm:


Andrei,
Have a look at Table 1. Oil Production Through Time, in the following site, it details when various nations HAVE ALREADY PEAKED & THE EXPECTED DATES for others.

Although the report uses 1997 data, I think the majority of the Peak dates will prove to be around the mark. Of interest, they predicted 2002 would be Australia's Peak, which was spot on. They predicted Mexico had Peaked in 1998,  it was actually 2003 before it really Peaked. They suggested that North Sea Oil would Peak in 2001, it actually Peaked in 1999.

In fact, of the 42 major Oil Production nations listed, they suggested that 37 would have Peaked by NOW, leaving a few of the older, super producers still to Peak, such as Saudi Arabia (in 2011), Kuwait (2018) & the UAE (2017).

No doubt there will be some ups & downs, a few years here and there, but in essence, we have Peaked!

Btw, I don't know where you get those gems about moving Peal Oil back 6 times or about Oil running out in 1982!

In fact, Hubbert said that USA Production would Peak around 1970-1972, it actually Peaked in 1970. Hubbert also said that Global Production would Peak just after 2000 and as far as I'm concerned it did effectively Peak in around 2005!

The rest of what you said, will make little difference in the overall grand scheme of events!


http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_duncan_and_youngquist_encircling_oil.htm