Australian Politics Forum - We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #45 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:01pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 8:37pm:

PN there are still considerable resources of oil in newer places.
Offshore deep-sea drilling and the advances made in technology are bringing these to reality.

The last bell is some way from chiming yet.

As regards peak oil, you and I both know that is also likely we are still a way from reaching the peak point.

I agree, there are still new resources that will come on-stream, but they will not be sufficient to offset the Decline in existing fields, particularly as the older & larger fields like Ghawar go into decline, which is either already happening or very close to it.

We effectively reached Peak Oil 5 years ago!

Back to top

IP Logged

Andrei.Hicks

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 23818
Carlsbad, CA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #46 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:01pm:

We effectively reached Peak Oil 5 years ago!
[/b]

really PN?
Now I know you understand the concept of Peak Oil as well as I do.

And therefore you would KNOW that you cannot state that we have reached peak oil because it is identified by a trend analysis of a period of decades.

Therefore your statement that we have reached it is both guesswork and completely unfounded. Correct?

Back to top

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde

IP Logged

gizmo_2655

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16010
South West NSW
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #47 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 6:42pm:

aikmann4 wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 4:52pm:

How much crude oil do we have in our reserves?

http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/rp_australia.jpg

The above confirms that AUSTRALIA IS PAST PEAK RESERVES & PRODUCTION, which means we will become more and more reliant on imported oil and that reliance will quicken dramatically, if both liberal & Labor proceed with their plans for a dramatically larger Australian Population!

The above chart is off the following link -
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/rp_a...

Perceptions...for most of the decade of the 1970s..BP, Shell and Esso were finding and capping a well per week....at minimum..that was 520 'capped' wells in Bass Strait and on the North West Shelf (or possible 1560 wells, if each company was finding a well per week)....
So at very least there are probably still around 400 capped wells that haven't been used YET...

So are we really at our 'peak production' yet????

Back to top

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

IP Logged

Andrei.Hicks Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 23818 Carlsbad, CA Gender:	Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol. Reply #48 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:11pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm: So are we really at our 'peak production' yet???? He has no idea. Neither do I. Neither does anyone. Peak production is identified in data spanning over 30-40 years.
Back to top	Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde IP Logged

Andrei.Hicks

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 23818
Carlsbad, CA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #49 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:14pm

Also Perceptions - the technology brought online in the last decade is enabling the oil companies and their contractors to drill at ever deeper depths on the ocean floor which was unheard of only 2 decades back.

Exploration is now fundamentally different, we can scan the ocean floor from the surface and identify key drilling points to test for oil.
Again unheard of in the 1990s even.

You can't apply simply 'this has been the case since 1970' logic because the technology and ability to drill has completely changed and is continuing to change!

We can drill much further, much safer and without excessive cost.

Back to top

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #50 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:15pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:01pm:

We effectively reached Peak Oil 5 years ago!
[/b]

really PN?
Now I know you understand the concept of Peak Oil as well as I do.

And therefore you would KNOW that you cannot state that we have reached peak oil because it is identified by a trend analysis of a period of decades.

Therefore your statement that we have reached it is both guesswork and completely unfounded. Correct?

We both know that Production has not show any growth for 5 years, despite 2 years of that being prior to the GFC, a massive rise in the Price of Oil and continued Population growth.

If growth was possible, it would have happened already, the confirmation will come later!

Back to top

IP Logged

Andrei.Hicks

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 23818
Carlsbad, CA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #51 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:19pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:15pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:01pm:

We effectively reached Peak Oil 5 years ago!
[/b]

really PN?
Now I know you understand the concept of Peak Oil as well as I do.

And therefore you would KNOW that you cannot state that we have reached peak oil because it is identified by a trend analysis of a period of decades.

Therefore your statement that we have reached it is both guesswork and completely unfounded. Correct?

We both know that Production has not show any growth for 5 years, despite 2 years of that being prior to the GFC, a massive rise in the Price of Oil and continued Population growth.

If growth was possible, it would have happened already, the confirmation will come later!

So basically if I can sum up -

You're taking data for 5 years, which is 1/6th of the recommended data timeframe for assessing peak oil trends.

You're also using this timeframe of 5 years to extrapolate that into the future there will be no further growth.

That is a huge call and akin to what I am doing now at work. Basically pulling together my 2014 forecast based on the last 2 years. I know I am going to be out by millions compared to my 2011 forecast because the number of unknowns is higher.

You're doing the same, plus you're selecting a very short period of time for a trend analysis.

Guesswork. You have as much chance of being wrong as right.

Back to top

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde

IP Logged

Yahoon Full Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 186	Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol. Reply #52 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:20pm The major factor in slowing production is from the left who have hamstrung growth under the guise of environmentalism by locking up vast areas
Back to top	IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #53 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:21pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:14pm:

Also Perceptions - the technology brought online in the last decade is enabling the oil companies and their contractors to drill at ever deeper depths on the ocean floor which was unheard of only 2 decades back.

Exploration is now fundamentally different, we can scan the ocean floor from the surface and identify key drilling points to test for oil.
Again unheard of in the 1990s even.

You can't apply simply 'this has been the case since 1970' logic because the technology and ability to drill has completely changed and is continuing to change!

We can drill much further, much safer and without excessive cost.

That is just plain -
Credible
R eliable
A bundant
P aradoxes

1) Remember BP & the Gulf of Mexico.
2) The EROEI on the likes of these Deep water wells & the Canada Tar Sands is extremely low compared to the old fields.

Back to top

IP Logged

Yahoon Full Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 186	Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol. Reply #54 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:25pm Quote: 2) The EROEI on the likes of these Deep water wells & the Canada Tar Sands is extremely low compared to the old fields. Fortunately for humanity, it is still a crapload better than the EROEI on solar panels and wind farms
Back to top	IP Logged

Andrei.Hicks

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 23818
Carlsbad, CA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #55 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:27pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:21pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:14pm:

Also Perceptions - the technology brought online in the last decade is enabling the oil companies and their contractors to drill at ever deeper depths on the ocean floor which was unheard of only 2 decades back.

Exploration is now fundamentally different, we can scan the ocean floor from the surface and identify key drilling points to test for oil.
Again unheard of in the 1990s even.

You can't apply simply 'this has been the case since 1970' logic because the technology and ability to drill has completely changed and is continuing to change!

We can drill much further, much safer and without excessive cost.

That is just plain -
Credible
R eliable
A bundant
P aradoxes

1) Remember BP & the Gulf of Mexico.
2) The EROEI on the likes of these Deep water wells & the Canada Tar Sands is extremely low compared to the old fields.

The BP incident was a one-off accident. If you view that in isolation it was bad.
If you view it in the amount of oil that is being drilled for all over the world and in depths never before seen, you will see it for what it was.

PS - The scale of the disaster was greatly over-exaggerated to suit US domestic politics.

Back to top

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #56 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:29pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 6:42pm:

aikmann4 wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 4:52pm:

How much crude oil do we have in our reserves?

http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/rp_australia.jpg

The above confirms that AUSTRALIA IS PAST PEAK RESERVES & PRODUCTION, which means we will become more and more reliant on imported oil and that reliance will quicken dramatically, if both liberal & Labor proceed with their plans for a dramatically larger Australian Population!

The above chart is off the following link -
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/rp_a...

Perceptions...for most of the decade of the 1970s..BP, Shell and Esso were finding and capping a well per week....at minimum..that was 520 'capped' wells in Bass Strait and on the North West Shelf (or possible 1560 wells, if each company was finding a well per week)....
So at very least there are probably still around 400 capped wells that haven't been used YET...

So are we really at our 'peak production' yet????

You are talking about different things!

BP & the 70's was about Peak discovery & the Global Peak for new Oil discoveries was about 1965.

The Peak of Production is about how much is being pumped out of the fields and that effectively Peaked in 2005, notwithstanding a whole bundle of reasons why production shouldn't have continued to rise, IF it possibly could!

Back to top

IP Logged

gizmo_2655

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16010
South West NSW
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #57 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:30pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:15pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:07pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:01pm:

We effectively reached Peak Oil 5 years ago!
[/b]

really PN?
Now I know you understand the concept of Peak Oil as well as I do.

And therefore you would KNOW that you cannot state that we have reached peak oil because it is identified by a trend analysis of a period of decades.

Therefore your statement that we have reached it is both guesswork and completely unfounded. Correct?

We both know that Production has not show any growth for 5 years, despite 2 years of that being prior to the GFC, a massive rise in the Price of Oil and continued Population growth.

If growth was possible, it would have happened already, the confirmation will come later!

Perceptions....the 'massive rise' in the price of oil is due to GREED, not a decline in supply.....

Back to top

"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

IP Logged

Andrei.Hicks Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 23818 Carlsbad, CA Gender:	Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol. Reply #58 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:34pm The crisis of high price of oil was not actually caused by a lowering of supply vs demand rather the speculation on Wall St. Oil is probably the one area which is unique in that respect.
Back to top	Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: We Must Cut The Price Of Petrol.
Reply #59 - Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:37pm

Yahoon wrote on Aug 30^th, 2010 at 9:25pm:

Quote:

2) The EROEI on the likes of these Deep water wells & the Canada Tar Sands is extremely low compared to the old fields.

Fortunately for humanity, it is still a crapload better than the EROEI on solar panels and wind farms

Unfortunately, that is not correct, both Wind & Solar are preferable to Tar Sands & the Deep water fields, which are in between the Tar Sands & US Crude, are also not flash.

Back to top

IP Logged