Australian Politics Forum - The Greens will hold the balance of power

mantra Gold Member Offline ozpolitic.com Posts: 10750 Gender:	The Greens will hold the balance of power Aug 21^st, 2010 at 10:30pm I would say it's a coalition victory at this stage, but won't it be fun when they try and get their legislation through the Senate?
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Equitist

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #1 - Aug 21^st, 2010 at 10:35pm

mantra wrote on Aug 21^st, 2010 at 10:30pm:

I would say it's a coalition victory at this stage, but won't it be fun when they try and get their legislation through the Senate?

Hmmnnn....it'd definitely be 'fun' for Abbott & Co to try to indefinitely refrain from demonstrating their true colours...at least until after a DD...

Either way, we're all-but sure of a fascinating next couple of years...

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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power Reply #2 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 6:19am This is the result we had to have. It will be an interesting three years. We will find out if Bob Brown can be bought? Good time for a punt? I bet Abbott will not be PM at the next election.
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mantra

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #3 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 7:56am

I can accept that Abbott will probably be our next PM, although it's still not guaranteed at this stage.

The way the Lib supporters are carrying on at the moment though is embarrassing - so it would be hilarious if four of the Independents decided to support Labor's policies and Gillard scraped back in.

There are Liberal and Labor policies that both need to be reined in and whichever party wins - they won't be ruling in their own right.

They'll have to answer to a handful of Independents who are very serious about the direction this country is heading.

The boat people were way down the list of voter concerns - yet the NBN is apparently an important issue to those in the bush.

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skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power Reply #4 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:00am Well done to the GREENS, the biggest vote for a minor party in over fifty years.
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deepthought

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #5 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:03am

mantra wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 7:56am:

yet the NBN is apparently an important issue to those in the bush.

Not at all.

Only in Tasmania did the GALP get a concerted swing toward them.

The rural seats all swung against the GALP.

Even with the Greens as the default left wing party the only place the Greens picked up a HoR seat was in Melbourne, a city seat.

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skippy.

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #6 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:08am

deepthought wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:03am:

mantra wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 7:56am:

yet the NBN is apparently an important issue to those in the bush.

Not at all.

Rob Oakshot thinks its important.

Only in Tasmania did the GALP get a concerted swing toward them.

The rural seats all swung against the GALP.

Even with the Greens as the default left wing party the only place the Greens picked up a HoR seat was in Melbourne, a city seat.

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deepthought

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #7 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:22am

skippy. wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:08am:

Rob Oakshot thinks its important.

Lyne is pretty much a coastal seat.

The bush would rather hospitals, schools, roads and rail.

Here, where I am, I gave out how to vote cards in my electorate, a rural seat.

Not once did the lure of an old fashioned cable come up, except from those giving out how to vote cards for the GALP.

They were preaching to no one though.

The electorate showed that, with a gigantic swing away from the GALP in most of the country.

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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power Reply #8 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:57pm skippy. wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:00am: Well done to the GREENS, the biggest vote for a minor party in over fifty years. Enjoy it, it's all downhill from here for them.
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aussiefree2ride Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3538	Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power Reply #9 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 9:01pm skippy. wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 8:00am: Well done to the GREENS, the biggest vote for a minor party in over fifty years. Green votes = Dissatisfaction with the ALP. Nothing more.
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mantra Gold Member Offline ozpolitic.com Posts: 10750 Gender:	Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power Reply #10 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 9:44pm Wrong. The Greens are a mixture of dissatisfied Labor and Liberal voters. I had always voted Liberal until the 90's then came to the realisation that there were more important things in life than extreme capitalism and an outdated class system.
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deepthought

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #11 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 9:53pm

mantra wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 9:44pm:

Wrong. The Greens are a mixture of dissatisfied Labor and Liberal voters.

I had always voted Liberal until the 90's then came to the realisation that there were more important things in life than extreme capitalism and an outdated class system.

If that was so there would be a corresponding swing away from both parties while the Greens got a swing towards them.

That didn't happen.

The disatisfied voters are all from Labor.

The coalition also picked up voters. Also from Labor.

And despite the Greens delivering a vast number of preferences (twice what the Nats deliver to the Lib/Nats) to their coalition partners they still got trumped by the Lib/Nats.

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Equitist

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #12 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 10:05pm

deepthought wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 9:53pm:

mantra wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 9:44pm:

Wrong. The Greens are a mixture of dissatisfied Labor and Liberal voters.

If that was so there would be a corresponding swing away from both parties while the Greens got a swing towards them.

That didn't happen.

The disatisfied voters are all from Labor.

The coalition also picked up voters. Also from Labor.

And despite the Greens delivering a vast number of preferences (twice what the Nats deliver to the Lib/Nats) to their coalition partners they still got trumped by the Lib/Nats.

Mantra's assertion makes sense to me - given that some Lib pollies have leanings towards certain Greens policies...

How do you know that a portion of Lib voters didn't defect to the Greens!?

Have you checked that assertion by analysing, on a seat-by-seat basis, the first preferences from 2007 and 2010 - and/or have you got a link to such an analysis!?

Surely, such defection could have been masked by other movements!?

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Lamenting the shift in the Australian psyche, away from the egalitarian ideal of the fair-go - and the rise of short-sighted pollies, who worship the 'Growth Fairy' and seek to divide and conquer!

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deepthought

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Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power
Reply #13 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 10:28pm

Equitist wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 10:05pm:

Mantra's assertion makes sense to me - given that some Lib pollies have leanings towards certain Greens policies...

How do you know that a portion of Lib voters didn't defect to the Greens!?

Have you checked that assertion by analysing, on a seat-by-seat basis, the first preferences from 2007 and 2010 - and/or have you got a link to such an analysis!?

Surely, such defection could have been masked by other movements!?

Anything's possible.

But apart from Tasmaniacs who, against all odds, swung to Labor, the general trend was for voters to desert the ALP and move to the Greens or the Lib/Nat coalition.

Had there been leakage to the Greens from the Lib/Nats the swing would have been nullified or reversed.

And in a couple of seats the swing away from the ALP was over 20%.

To move to the Greens for disaffected ALP voters is no big stretch but it is a major jump to move to the Greens for a conservative.

Most people on this side of the fence would be unwilling (or likely incapable of) to abandon their morality.

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mantra Gold Member Offline ozpolitic.com Posts: 10750 Gender:	Re: The Greens will hold the balance of power Reply #14 - Aug 22^nd, 2010 at 11:07pm Quote: Most people on this side of the fence would be unwilling (or likely incapable of) to abandon their morality. I didn't realise they had any. If anything I have found many Liberal voters very hypocritical in their moral stance - do as I say, not as I do seems to be their doctrine.
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