Soren wrote on Aug 21
st, 2010 at 9:59pm:
Labor will form government with the Greens/Wilkes. This means they are buggered. They will have to go left and that will be the end of them.
After the next election we will have another 12 years of conservative government.
I think you're right. It looks like Labor's days are numbered. They've reached a point of no return, popularity wise.
The Libs have to stuff-up big time to see them lose the next election.
I doubt we'll see a move to the left though. The current Labor cabinet is quite conservative, Gillard included. I doubt the Greens will get their way - many of the independants are Nationals.
What we're more likely to see is nothing happening for 3 years - and by nothing, I mean nothing. The Greens and Independants won't like Labor's assylum-seeker policies. Gillard's already put off the ETS. Broadband rollout is about all that will get up.
These are the flagship policies, however. Quietly, other things might get through. But with so many independants, initiatives will leak. This fact alone will make governing very difficult, and politically, I doubt very much that Labor will survive it.
They will need a miracle next time round.