Surge for Labor, Coalition vote falls


LABOR has surged to a strong 53-47 per cent two-party lead a week from the election, with a new poll also showing a sharp fall in Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's approval.

As Prime Minister Julia Gillard had a much better fourth week, Labor's two-party vote in the Age/Nielsen poll rose 4 percentage points. Its primary vote was also up 4 points to 40 per cent - about the level it needs to be confident of hanging on.

The Coalition has lost 3 points in a week from its primary vote - on 41 per cent, it is only slightly ahead of Labor.

Ms Gillard widened her advantage as preferred prime minister. She leads 52 per cent, up 3 points, to Mr Abbott's 38 per cent, down 3 points.

There are signs of improvement for Labor in the key states of Queensland and New South Wales, where it is most worried about losing seats.

On these figures, Labor would be returned with its majority little changed. The poll found almost six in 10 voters expect Labor to win, up from a week ago.

After two bad weeks, Labor's campaigning has levelled out in recent days, with Ms Gillard making big promises on education and a railway line in Sydney aimed at vulnerable seats. Mr Abbott, meanwhile, struggled on the broadband issue, admitting he was not a ''tech head''.

The Opposition Leader's approval is down 5 points to 45 per cent, while his disapproval is also up 5 points to 48 per cent. Ms Gillard's approval was up 2 points to 54 per cent; her disapproval fell 2 to 36 per cent.

While Labor will be heartened by the national results, it is still concerned by its polling in marginal seats. In Queensland, the Nielsen poll still has Labor trailing, and the government is worried about a clutch of close electorates.

The poll shows no overall swing since the 2007 election. Taken between Tuesday and Thursday nights, among 1346 voters, it finds Labor improving in Victoria, marginally ahead in NSW, level in South Australia and trailing in Western Australia. The Greens vote is down 1 point to 12 per cent.

''This is a good poll for Labor, but there are reasons for caution,'' said Nielsen pollster John Stirton. First, Green voters' preferences are flowing more strongly to Labor than at the last election. When the two-party vote is calculated using 2007 preference flows, the result is closer - 52-48 per cent.

Second, 14 per cent of Labor voters said only that they were ''leaning'' to Labor, almost double the Coalition's ''soft'' vote (8 per cent), Mr Stirton said. And third, he warned, ''the election result will still be decided by regional differences''.

The gender gap has narrowed significantly, with 54 per cent of women supporting Labor compared with 52 per cent of men. But as preferred PM, Ms Gillard is much more popular among women.

Ms Gillard has her formal launch in Brisbane on Monday. The detail is still being worked on, but she is expected to keep any new offerings modest. Mr Abbott has made a quick dash to Western Australia for a day's campaigning.

The Coalition ignored last night's deadline for submitting policy proposals for official costing by Treasury and the Department of Finance, claiming it could no longer trust the system after a Treasury costing finding it had exaggerated the size of a key saving proposal was leaked to the media.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, who also withheld his proposals from costing when in opposition in 2007, accused the Coalition of refusing to submit its policies because it knew its own costings were wrong.

''These 'dog ate my homework' excuses are not sufficient to hide the fact that their cost blowouts are a danger to the surplus,'' Mr Swan said. ''The Liberals never, ever intended to submit their spending commitments.''

Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said the Coalition would release its own consultants' costings of its policies next week.

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This must ring alarm bells for anyone who cares about the viability of this country. We can`t afford another three years of mismanagemet and bumbling.